stevec_atx

I'm really surprised at this line. Again might be too linear but you have to LOVE Ok State in this spot. The Cowboys are undefeated and looked damn good against Texas last weekend.

Iowa State has losses to Iowa and Baylor and didn't look real dominate against K. State last week. And the Cyclones run defense hasn't been quite as impenetrable in Big 12 play but they still have one of the best front sevens in the country.

I do give the Cyclones the edge at QB as Brock Purdy has only had one dud this season, while Spencer Sanders has only had one good game. You never know what you're going to get with Sanders but the Ok State is undefeated for a reason...they are big up front, a veteran team with no real weaknesses. I'm not ready to put Ok State on upset alert but I do predict a close game that comes down to the final possession.

Prediction: Iowa State 24, Oklahoma State 21

Might be too linear of pick but I like LSU after what I saw from their win over Florida last weekend.

Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral left last week's win over Tennessee for a play with an undisclosed injury and Kiffin reportedly said "he's not in very good shape and didn't feel good about him playing.".

If he can't go, would freshman Luke Altmyer get the start? Or would they perhaps put John Rhys Plumlee back there, since he has way more in-game QB experience and because his proven ability to run the ball would be useful against this LSU defense?

Also, did losing wide receiver Kayshon Boutte to a season-ending leg injury somehow force LSU to realize it can run the ball when necessary, or were those 321 yards against Florida's D just a fluke? Tyrion Davis-Price also ran it well the previous week against Kentucky and could be gearing up for another big game against an Ole Miss defense that ranks 111th in rushing yards allowed per game.

This line opened at 10 and has dropped to 8, but if Corral is out (as expected), then give me LSU +8 and sprinkle the ML. Also like the Unders here in this spot if Corral is in fact out.

I am still rolling with the Astros!! I knew that Boston could be a hard team to overcome, but facing the Astros, I had not doubts about that. Astros is still stronger team, their weakness right now is the pitching staff, they supposed to count with McCullers fighting vs Boston, but unfortunately it is not possible. I am not seeing a close game tonight, I am seeing the Astros as the winner, maybe 8-3. If you want to bet to the Over, go ahead, both team will score and Houston will hit at least two home runs. By the way, I have been waiting for a home run from Gurriel since two weeks ago, maybe today is his day. Astros here we go!!!

🏈***NCAAF EARLY WORMS 10/18*** 🐛

Scanning the opening lines vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/ and these games caught my attention. 🔒

🏈WAKE -3.5 - Army tough team but Wake more tested + better offense

🏈SYRACUSE +3 - Orange over VT - The Cuse' 9 points away from being 4-1 this year and have played a tougher schedule.

🏈PITTSBURGH -2 - Clemson is legitimately not good.

🏈Oklahoma -38 - KU has thrown in the towel. Sooners will score 60+

🏈OK STATE +7 - This line should be ISU -3 IMO

🏈UTSA -6.5 - I'm sold on this UTSA offense, plus La Tech has been bad last 2 weeks (coming off loss to UTEP).

You see anything that jumps off the page at you this week?

DROP YOUR CFB PICKS ⬇️

PHILLY +7 - I think the Eagles can negate some TB pressure & attack an injured secondary which has been cushioned facing NE (23rd) and MIA (30th) in OFF success. Philly receiving corp is young but potent. Eagles getting 7 where Patriots got 6? No Sir. Fly baby fly.

Over the last decade, If Texas and TCU went on Maury Povich, then Maury would say "Texas, TCU IS YOUR DADDY". The Frogs have won the last 7 out of 10 and have Zach Evans at running back...remember that name as Zach Evans is one of the Top 3 backs in all of college football and is the future of TCU football. But the tides are turning in Texas and the Horns are the most prolific points in college football right now and TCU doesn't have the defense they've had in years past. Even with Zach Evans I think the horns out pace TCU over 4 quarters here today with Casey Thompson at the helm.

Maybe Florida State should just schedule FCS opponents. Oh wait, they’re 0-1 against them as well.

Baylor wasn't supposed to be good this year and Iowa State was supposed to be a Top 10 team, but that hasn't exactly played out as predicted. Baylor has racked up more rushing yards than the total number of yards its defense allowed in each of its first three games. This would be a much more impressive feat if the Bears' first three opponents weren't Texas State, Texas Southern and Kansas, or if they had at least won that opener against Texas State by a more impressive margin than 29-20.

Baylor might be good, though. We simply don't know yet. The Bears certainly put a hurting on the Jayhawks in Week 3. And it's not like Iowa State got out to a great start to the season, barely defeating Northern Iowa before losing at home to a good Iowa team.

The one thing the Cyclones have consistently done well, though, is defend the run, holding each of their first three foes below 1.8 yards per carry. Baylor will fare better than that, but it won't come anywhere close to the 323 rushing yards per game it has averaged thus far. Without that dominance on the ground, the Bears will fall short of pulling off the upset. However, it's going to be a much closer game than anyone would have guessed one month ago. I think Baylor's offense does enough to make this one exciting down to the wire.

Prediction: Iowa State 27, Baylor 24

Unfortunately for Tulane, many of their keys to victory align directly with Oklahoma's strengths as well, which should make a difficult game on the road. Add in that some of Oklahoma's other strengths align with the weakness of Tulane, and it makes the idea of Tulane hanging on in this even more unlikely. 

So bet OU to cover right? Not so fast. Tulane has a new QB under center in Michael Pratt but Pratt got to start 2 games last year and has some experience. The strength of Tulane is their run game and I expect it to be 3 yards and a cloud of dust for the Green Waves today. Tulane will be looking to eat clock and limit OU’s possessions. As such I think the Green Wave find the end zone a couple of times and score 14-17 points here and do just enough to stay inside this thick spread. OU wins 45 -17 game but Tulane covers late.

This is an interesting matchup because both teams have rosters that look incredibly different compared to last year. Nobody knows how well this new-look Michigan State team full of transfers and true freshmen, with a few of last year’s contributors sprinkled in, will perform in 2021.

I understand Northwestern has had some early injuries and their quarterback didn’t look good the last time we saw him, but I totally don’t know what to expect from this MSU team this season. The Spartans brought in a wealth of Power Five transfers, many of whom should see some significant playing time. But I’ll need to see the offense string together some drives before I put my faith in this team.

Pick: I think opening the season with Northwestern is going to be a great measuring stick for the Spartans. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game as the offenses work the early season kinks out and the defenses come in more ready to play. UNDER 45.5

Kansas wins their only game of the year tonight.

Cal Quantrill has only allowed 20 hits and five runs in his 31 innings this month, accumulating 34 strikeouts in those games. Eovaldi hasn't been good on the road this season and Cleveland has the better bull pen.

Don't sleep on Andrew Albers. He's thrown two straight quality starts, allowing only one earned-run in 12 innings. Minny's pen is always a concern so going Twins F5 here.

Yankees RL. Simple.

Pivetta got rippped against the Yankees in his last start, so will be interesting to see how he bounces back tonight. IMO this is a coin flip of a game and Ober is marginally better than Pivetta. Have to take the plus money here just as a value pick.

Oakland has won 7 in a row and just scored 17 runs against Cleveland. No reason to think the A's train slows down tonight. Dane Dunning on the hill for Rangers and he's been descent in last 3 starts but I'll take Cole Irvin in this spot and no stepping in front of this A's offense. Plus Texas has no offense. Oakland RL -1.5 🔓 BOL!

Mahle has really struggled at home this season and doesn't deserve to be -240 here. The Red's are swinging hot bats but the Cincinnati bullpen has been tough to stomach lately. Bryse Wilson for Pittsburgh has been serviceable and could surprise here as a monster underdog.

Greinke has become the ace of this rotation and the Stros own a 13-5 record with Greinke on the mound. One stat of concern is Greinke surprisingly hasn't been as good at home this season, his home ERA sits at 5.26, compared to a 2.25 ERA on the road. But I still like Houston today.

I’ll lay the point with the Suns here, as Paul and Booker combined for just 30 points on 10-of-40 from the field during their somewhat competitive loss in Game 3. I have to imagine Phoenix’s superstar tandem is just a ticking timebomb heading into this game.

The O's are 0-20 SU on the road since May 11, 2021

Twins-Mariners 1st 5 innings over 4 (-120)

Both starters are really bad. Texas offense going to break out tonight. Rangers and OVER 11.

The Trail Blazers might have dropped Game 2 by 14 points, but the accomplished their objective. Portland grabbed the road split in Denver wrestling home-court advantage into their favor. The big difference for Portland between the two games was their ball handling. They turned it over just six times in Game 1 and 21 times in Game 2. If Portland curbs the turnovers they will bounce back at home.

Score Predictions: Portland 122 - Denver 113

Antonio Senzatela will get the start for the Rockies and the team is 1-7 in his starts so far this season. This game is going to get ugly. D-backs are free.

Kevin Gausman (3-0) 1.84 ERA - Gausman has anchored the Giants' elite starting rotation this year, pitching at least six innings in each of his first eight starts. He struck out a career-high 12 over eight-plus innings against the Pirates on Friday.

Wade Miley (4-3) 3.69 ERA - Miley will try to bounce back from a poor outing in Colorado (3 IP, 11 H, 8 R) that followed up his no-hitter of Cleveland on May 7. The last time that he faced the Giants was on April 12, when he tossed five scoreless innings in San Francisco.

The Giants are playing good baseball and Gausman is an elite Ace. Guasman who sits with a 3-0 record and an ERA of 1.84. Guasman will lock down in this game and getting -116 feels like a gift in this spot.

The Raptors received a career-high 35 points from Stanley Johnson Thursday and still took a double-digit loss against the 11th-place Bulls. The Mavs have the rest advantage and will roll tonight.

No Steven Adams tonight. I think Memphis takes advantage of a banged up NO team.

OKC has packed it in, having lost 20 of their last 21 games. The Kings have won 4 of their last 5 and have an outside chance of getting up to the Western Conference’s 10th seed spot.

Today's early golf bets have been ugly. My Saturday night special is Detroit +10.5. Philly banged up and Detroit could win this game, with or without Embiid in the lineup. Let's go!

Ben Simmons is Out. Nobody to guard Steph on the perimeter, let's get that Golden State cheese.