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Zack Wheeler is 3-2 with a 1.73 ERA in six home starts this season while Madison Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 4.18 road ERA in six starts. The pitching staffs as a whole also show the difference as the Phillies are 17th in baseball with a 3.88 team ERA while the Diamondbacks are 26th with a 4.37 staff ERA. Not in love with these odds but Philly is better in all 3 facets - starting pitching, offense and bull pen.

Boston turned the ball over 18 times in Game 2, which really propelled the Warriors (33 points off of turnovers), and I think just cleaning that up could make Game 3 much closer. The Celtics have still shot above 40% from 3 in each game in this series, and have yet to lose back-to-back games in the playoffs. Couple of trend tidbits, the Celtics are 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS after a loss since Jan 29. This includes a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs.

The Celtics have been especially good after a double-digit loss in this span, going 4-0 SU and ATS with an avg win margin of 16.75. I’ll back them to bounce-back and retake the lead in the series. 

Boston embarrassed Brooklyn at home during the regular season, winning the two games by a combined 58 points. I just think Boston's lock down defense is a bad matchup for the Nets. Defense wins championships - I'll take the points here.

The 76ers had 27 road wins this year, second-best in the NBA. They not only know how to play in a hostile environment, they thrive in them. Granted, Toronto is no slouch at home, but do they really have anybody that can go shot for shot win a guy like Joel Embiid. That’s really what Game 4 and this series as a whole is going to come down to. Can Toronto find their answer for Embiid? The answer, at least for this year, is almost certainly no. Give me Philly here on the low line.

The Bluejays have one of the best offenses in the MLB, and when they catch fire, it’ll be tough for anyone in the American League to stand in their way. Luis Severino struggled in his opening start and this isn’t the offense you want to face without your best stuff. This is a relatively even match-up, but still question marks around Severino, so I’ll take the Jays and their explosive offense on the road here.

The White Sox are a tough team to step in front of with their red-hot offense, but Jimmy Lambert has just 15 career innings under his belt, and he’s making his season debut here. Logan Gilbert is a super talented prospect who looked sharp in his season opener, and he’s only going to get better. Pick: Mariners +105

I don’t think Vegas is giving KU -4 enough respect in this spot. Sure, North Carolina has been excellent offensively lately, but it appeared to shoot a bit over its head against Duke and don't think we can expect lightning to strike twice. KU should get plenty of shots up against North Carolina, with the Tar Heels trying to force the Jayhawks into contested mid-range jumpers. Transition defense is rightfully a massive concern for Davis, though, especially as quickly as KU’s guards get down the court.

Sometimes I feel like public bettors place wagers with their hearts. It’d be fun to see a close national championship game, especially with as entertaining of a tournament as it’s been. I don’t think we’ll get that here, though. The Jayhawks have been the better of these two teams over the last six months, and they’ll just need to be themselves to cut down the nets late Monday night. Kansas has too much fire power - give me KU for the win and cover.

Prediction: Kansas 78, North Carolina 68

This Duke team is oozing talent, but we can't forget the average age of Duke's starting 5 is 19 years old - these kids are young. I'm betting the moment is too big for these youngster from Duke - I also like the size of UNC down low and think this is a game the Tar Heels can win out right. Going to be a heavy weight fight and I want the points in my pocket.

This line would probably be a Pick Em' if Villanova’s Justin Moore hadn't torn his ACL in the Houston game. Losing Moore is certainly a big loss as he averaged 14.7 PPG. Sound logic would take KU here, but I just haven't been that high on KU this season. Even w/o Moore in the lineup this Villanova team is dangerous (as we saw against a talented Houston team). Don't love this game but got to bet it right? Give me the points here with Nova as I think they keep it close.

St. Bonaventure advanced in the tournament with wins over Colorado (76-68), Oklahoma (70-68) and Virginia (52-51). The Bonnies are 11-2 since Feb. 8 but won their last two games by only a combined 3 points.

Xavier struggled down the stretch in the Big East, going 4-7 in its last 11 regular-season games and then losing its Big East tourney opener.

Slight lean on Bonnies here as I just think they have more quality wins of late, but Xavier could control the boards here which is a concern for Bonaventure betters.

The Under is 4-1 in the Bonnies’ last five games against foes playing .600 or better basketball.

The best bet in this matchup is on the UNDER 139.5, this line opened at 140.5 and money has come in on the unders and I think it's the right side. Both sides are bottom-third squads in 3-point percentage and St. Bonaventure plays with a slower than average pace.

Pick: UNDER 139.5

Fresno State isn't exactly explosive offensively, but they played better in their last three games, scoring 70 points per game while shooting 46% from the field. The Bulldogs also have been good scoring in the paint and on the offensive glass, which should lead to more 2nd chance scoring. Southern Utah is playing well at the moment, but they continue to struggle defensively, giving up more than 74 points per game on the road, and I think the T-birds will have a hard time slowing down the Bulldogs here for 4 quarters. I like Fresno here as they are the bigger team down low and coming out of a much better conference.

Miami's lack of size could be an issue here against KU, but Miami has been undersized against their opponents throughout the tournament and have gotten it done with their speed and shooting and lateral quickness on defense. Miami is no slouch and are doing everything well on both ends of the floor right now. I’m not sure the ‘Canes pull off the outright upset here, but this should be a one possession game at most. The public money is coming in on Miami as this line opened at +6.5 and is down to +5.5 at most books.

Don't get suckered into the points here. Purdue’s 7-foot-4 C Zach Edey and G Jaden Ivey are like nothing the Peacocks have faced this season, and F 6-foot-10 Trevion Williams has actually played an underrated yet vital role.

Purdue is a Big Ten-best 9-4 ATS in non-conference games, where Saint Peter’s is just 4-4 ATS. Basically, Purdue has been dominant when expected to be. The combination of size, playmaking, and scoring should send Cinderella home in a body bag. I think this game is covered by half time.

Score Prediction: Purdue 78 - Saint Peters 63

Tech's offensive output is always a concern, Tech shot awful from the field against Notre Dame but escaped with the win due to their lock down defense. The difference here is age of team, Tech has 4 Sr.'s and a 5th year Sr. and Duke has 3 freshman, a So. and Jr. I like Raiders to put that Dad strength on the Blue Devils tonight. Guns up!

+7.5 points feels like too many here based on how KU has played this year. The Jayhawks will lead throughout, but the Friars will keep it under double-digits for most of the game. I see KU escaping here but barely.

Not only is Tennessee a much better team than Michigan, it’s also a bad matchup for the Wolverines and I think a rough combination when it comes to a two-day prep in a single-elimination format.

Prediction: Tennessee 70, Michigan 61

The Tigers faded down the stretch and were not great away from home. I would take the points here with the Gamecocks on a neutral site. Jax. St has athletic guards and will make enough 3's to put an early scare into Auburn. Not putting Auburn on upset alert but I like Jax St to stay within earshot here.

Prediction: Auburn, 80, Jacksonville State 68

Both teams play with a quicker-than-average pace. Both offenses with likable late-season trend lines. Both regular season games hit the Unders, but both games were outliers based on production.

Pick: OVER 144

Don’t be fooled by the close seeds here. Xavier is the much better team. The second meeting in the regular season saw XU defeat BU 68-66, but Xavier led that game by 15 midway through the second half. If Xavier brings their A-game I think they win by double digits.

Score Prediction: Xavier 70 - Butler 60

OSU is the much better team ATS of late: Buckeyes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Terrapins are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games as home underdogs.

Ohio State is much the better shooting team, both inside and outside the arc, and the Buckeyes have recently shot well on the road. Figure their Feb. 9 loss at Rutgers as a wake-up call for this trip against similar Maryland. Give me OSU -4 here to do just enough.

Sans the one loss to K. State this year, Texas has been unbeatable at home and just knocked off #22 ISU by 22 points. But I'm throwing out the Horns home court stats here as I just believe KU is the better team. As long as the Jayhawks bring their A game I think they will be too much for the Horns. Give me the better team here at a virtual pick em'.

The Hawkeyes beat the Golden Gophers by 10 in Minneapolis earlier this season and while Iowa has been great at home, this spread of 12 points just feels a bit heavy here.

Houston ranks fourth in the nation in allowing just 56.5 points per game and is on a 11 game win streak. UH just beat Tulane by double digits and held the Green Wave to 32.8% shooting. Houston has held their opponents to under 41% in 11 straight games. Cinci has a solid defense but hasn't played the schedule Houston has and doesn't have the offense that Houston has. Not going to overthink this one and roll with Houston here as I think their defense will be too much for this Cinci offense that hasn't impressed.

Colorado State has been absolutely terrific this season and is 15-1 on the season. Nevada is an average team and a paltry 1-6 ATS in last 7 games.

The Rams offense is averaging 78.6 points per game. Their strength is inside the arc where they shoot 57.8%, but their defensive is equally as good. The Rams are also allowing the fewest two-point attempts in the Mountain West through their six conference games.

Nevada’s only top-25 matchup was a difficult one but it lost by 27 points at Kansas. The Wolf Pack also lost to Boise State at home by 15 earlier this month. They’re giving up 74.6 points per game in conference play and allow opponents to shoot 46.3% from within the arc.

Nevada will be outclassed at both ends in this matchup - I'll lay the 8.5 points with CSU here at home.

Josh Allen is a bona fide alpha, head coach Sean McDermott is an elite tactician, and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is perhaps the hottest head coaching candidate in the NFL for a reason.

The Bills have the best third-down conversion differential in the NFL and the sixth-best, red-zone scoring differential. I think this Bills team is built perfectly to go against Kansas City. The Bills have possibly the best safety tandem in the league (FS Micah Hyde and SS Jordan Poyer) and one of the best coverage linebackers in Matt Milano.

Buffalo’s defense can force Mahomes into being precise up-and-down the field and we saw what happened in week 5 when Mahomes threw 2 interceptions and just 272 yards on 54 pass attempts.

The only fat on Buffalo’s resume is it had the easiest schedule in the NFL (according to Football Outsiders) and a weird 9-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9, but I'm not putting much stock into this.

The Bills stomped the Chiefs earlier this season and are playing their best football entering this game. Buffalo’s beatdown of New England in the wild card game is one of the greatest games any team has ever played and I don't see them letting off the gas here against a Chiefs team that has had their share of bad games this year.

Betting Pick: Bills ML

Total mismatch here as Georgia is flat terrible and Auburn is 16-1 and ranked #6 in the Country. Bruce Pearl‘s squads are 6-3 ATS over their last nine home games when favored by 20-plus and I think they make it 7-3 after a blowout win tonight. I expect a complete effort from Auburn at home and they will shut down Georgia's anemic offense. Small wager but laying the points here.

New Mexico has lost their last 4 but were only really blown out by UNLV and covered in 3 of those 4 losses. The Rams have won two straight games after being blitzed by 30 points on Jan. 8. by San Diego State, 79-49. The Rams are the the Mountain West’s top 3-point shooting team (39.2%) but in their 1 blowout loss to the Aztecs, the Rams just shot 3-for-20 from distance.

Lobos have struggled mightily on the boards and have been wildly inconsistent but have been good against the number and 16.5 just doesn't pass the eye test. As long as CSU doesn't go crazy from behind the arc I like the points in this contest tonight.

Tampa will be without Godwin at receiver, Fournette at RB and AB has flown the coop. So Tampa w/o a lot of playmakers on offense here and will have to lean on Giovani Bernard and Le' Veon Bell at running back, but the good news for Tampa is their defense is healthy and fully loaded.

TB without several key starters here but they are still the better (more experienced) team on offense and the much better defensive team. I didn't like this line at Tampa -9, but this line has come down to Tampa -7.5 so going to buy the hook here and play TB -7 (-120) and the UNDER 46 is worth a look as I like TB defense to stifle Hurts and Co.

Score prediction: TB 27- Philly 17

***PROP LOCK*** Hassan Whiteside UNDER 13.5 rebounds

Rudy Gobert is still out for Utah with COVID, so Whiteside will start at center but 13.5 feels inflated here. He's coming off a 14-rebound effort versus Detroit. But woeful Detroit is ranked 28th (55.9) in Opponent Total Rebounds Allowed Per Game. Cleveland, with bigs Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley and Kevin Love, ranks 9th (51.2). In three starts this season, Whiteside averaged 9.7 boards.