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Ever since week 1, the Packers have been a cash machine for bettors going 5-0 both straight-up and against the spread. Washington has the league's worst pass defense by allowing a whopping 309.5 yards per game. Patrick Mahomes was the first quarterback in the past month not to throw for four touchdowns against Washington and he still carved up the nameless ones for 397 yards. What do you think Aaron Rodgers is going to do?

Rodgers has been close to perfect on paper since that New Orleans game, and Washington's defense shockingly ranks 29th in DVOA. They just don't seem to have it this year, and it doesn't help that the offense has been hit hard by injuries while quarterback Taylor Heinicke has faded.

I've got the Packers by double digits in this one.

Score Prediction: Green bay 27 - Washington 16

The Bengals have a chance to move into first place in the AFC North by shocking the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, and veteran defensive back Vonn Bell claims his team's surprising defense is "oozing with confidence" right now.

Both of these teams are well above average in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average at Football Outsiders), and Cincy has nothing to lose against a Ravens team that is playing great but barely beat the Indianapolis Colts at home two weeks ago.

I like Ravens to win but laying a near TD here just doesn't pass the eye test as I can see this game being decided by a FG either way here. I'm buying the hook and taking Bengals +7 (-120).

Score Prediction: Ravens 27 - Cinci 24

🏈 San Diego State +3.5 (ML)

Pretty slim slate of games Saturday but this is one game I've got circled to watch on Saturday. Air Force and San Diego State have done an excellent job of both running the ball and stuffing their opponents' attempts to do the same. The Falcons are No. 1 in rushing yards per game, while the Aztecs are No. 1 in rushing yards allowed per game. (SDSU's run game ranks 20th; AFA's run defense ranks 10th.)

San Diego St has had a top tier defense for past 3 years - none of the Aztecs' last 27 opponents has rushed for more than 157 yards, and two-thirds of them were held below 100 yards. While they probably won't do that to Air Force's triple-option, they will at least keep the Falcons from getting anywhere close to their season average on the ground.

If and when these offenses are forced to take to the air, it's advantage: San Diego State, which has won eight consecutive, mostly razor-thin games in this series. In the last 3 games Air Force has completed just 15 of 34 pass attempts for 130 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. I expect San Diego State to stack the box and force the Falcons to the air. Give me the points here and sprinkle the ML.

Prediction: San Diego State 31, Air Force 27

🏈 UTSA -6.5

I've liked this Louisiana Tech team all season as they almost knocked off Mississippi State, SMU and NC State, while UTSA had to erase a 21-0 first-quarter deficit against Memphis in the only game it has played against a team that currently has three or more wins.

But La Tech is battling the injury bug and really wet the bed last week against UTEP. This Roadrunner offense is the real deal and don't think La Tech defense will have an answer for it; I've got UTSA winning here by double digits and improving to 8-0 on the year.

Prediction: UTSA 34, Louisiana Tech 23

🏈 Purdue +3 (ML) & UNDER 40

A total of 40 is low for a college game, but I still like the UNDERS here based on how these two team matchup. Wisconsin has averaged 17.0 points scored and 18.0 points allowed in its three Big Ten games, and the Badgers' league games have been high-scoring compared to Purdue's marks of 16.7 and 12.0, respectively.

One concern for Unders bettors is that Purdue does have a potent passing attack, though, eclipsing 275 yards in each of its six games, including back-to-back contests north of 370. And while Wisconsin's rush defense ranks among the stingiest in the country, each of Penn State, Notre Dame and Michigan had aerial success against the Badgers.

Bottomline here is I haven't been impressed with the Badgers offense this season but do have a bend don't break type of defense. For the second consecutive week, David Bell will be the difference in a low-scoring Purdue victory, love this Purdue ML this week.

Prediction: Purdue 17, Wisconsin 13

Three weeks ago, this game might have scared me. But since losing quarterback Dillon Gabriel to a broken collarbone (as well as several other key players to injury), UCF has been a shell of its former self.

The Knights had gained at least 380 yards of total offense in 50 of their previous 52 games before Gabriel's injury, but they were held to 326 in a loss to Navy and 359 in a 20-16 win over East Carolina over the past two weeks.

If you can't move the ball against Navy and East Carolina, you won't have much luck against Cincinnati's defense. Thick spread but I'm laying the number here.

Prediction: Cincinnati 42, UCF 17

OU has been playing with fire all season and TCU has one of the best running backs in college football. I assume Caleb Williams will get the start for Oklahoma after last week's performance against Texas, and this OU offense should be able to light it up against a TCU defense that has allowed more than 400 yards and more than 30 points in all four games against FBS opponents.

The Horned Frogs have some offense too, led by star running back Zach Evans. But Oklahoma's defense aside from a 50-yard scamper on which Bijan Robinson stiff-armed the soul out of a would-be tackle, did a great job against Texas' rushing attack and is allowing just 91.0 rushing yards per game.

At the end of the day I don't see OU blowing this TCU team out. I think Max Duggan and RB Zach Evans keep them in this game. But going to buy the hook here and take TCU +14 (-115). And I like the OVER 65 points here in what should be all gas and no brakes of a game.

Prediction: Oklahoma 45, TCU 34

***PROP LOCK*** L. Jackson OVER 227.5 PY (-115)

Lamar avg. 269 yds a gm. Went over this number in all 4 games so far and the Colts will force him to beat him em with his arm like Denver tried to do and we know how that worked out.

The Detroit Lions have battled hard at home this season, but they're still 0-4. They've been defeated by double-digit margins in both of their road games, and they're now in particularly rough shape from a health perspective. With star center Frank Ragnow (turf toe) on injured reserve along with pass-rusher Romeo Okwara (Achilles), it's hard to see Detroit sticking around with the desperate Vikings in Minnesota.

Minnesota isn't nearly as bad as its 1-3 record indicates; the Vikings lost one game in overtime and another by a missed field-goal attempt as time expired. They ran into the Cleveland Browns' defensive buzzsaw last week, yet they still remained within a score during that entire contest.

I like Vikings here by double digits.

In four games against FBS opponents, Syracuse has thrown for a total of 510 yards and one touchdown. Wake Forest's entire defensive game plan in this one should be containing mobile quarterback Garrett Shrader and star running back Sean Tucker.

As Liberty and Florida State have discovered in the past two weeks, that's not easy. That duo has rushed for a combined 461 yards and six touchdowns over the last two games, resulting in a win over the Flames and a last-second loss to the Seminoles.

Even if each guy rushes for 100 yards and a score, though, a Wake Forest offense that has scored at least 35 points in each game this season should be able to take care of the rest. The Demon Deacons just need to make sure they don't let Shrader and Tucker run wild. I like this veteran Wake Forest team this year and getting this line inside of a touchdown against a suspect Syracuse team feels like the right side.

Prediction: Wake Forest 38, Syracuse 23

39 point spread? Holy Cow, Batman. In case needing a last-second field goal to win a home game against Connecticut wasn't enough proof of how bad things have gotten for Vanderbilt, the Commodores are underdogs by more than five touchdowns against a Florida team that scored 13 points this past weekend and that has yet to win a game by more than 24 points.

And you know what? It's a fair line, because Vanderbilt's defense is in fact that bad.

Florida has won 29 of the last 30 games in this series, including a 56-0 victory two years ago. And it should be fun when the Gators bring in human highlight reel Anthony Richardson as the backup quarterback for garbage time. I don't like betting these big numbers but if forced to play it would lay the points and take Florida here.

Prediction: Florida 56, Vanderbilt 9

Arizona State is back in the AP Top 25 after a 42-23 road win over then-No. 20 UCLA, and Stanford certainly shook up the rankings with its 31-24 victory over then-No. 3 Oregon. But before you rush to the window and bet on Stanford here, remember that Sun Devils are averaging better than 200 rushing yards per game, and they are going to run all over a Cardinal defense allowing more than 200 rushing yards per game. And though Tanner McKee has 10 touchdowns against zero interceptions since becoming Stanford's starting quarterback, this will be the toughest defense he has faced by a wide margin.

Not to mention the combination of Arizona State's above-average secondary and Stanford's considerably-below-average run defense should help ASU roll to victory in this game. .

Prediction: Arizona State 38, Stanford 21

***UNDER 42***

Carson Wentz is playing banged up, the Colts offense is struggling. This should be a bounce-back performance for the Dolphins defense under Brian Flores.

The Dolphins gave the undefeated Raiders all they could handle in Las Vegas last week, while the reeling Colts fell to 0-3 in Tennessee and are on (or over) the precipice of their season spiraling out of control. But as a Miami bettor do you really trust Jacoby Brissett at the helm?

I think this is a coin flip of a game, so would take the 2.5 points with Indy if forced t play it, but the smart money here I believe is on the UNDER 42 points. We've got two anemic offenses, Wentz is banged up and Brissett is starting, and we've got two really good defenses. I think this game sets up for a defensive low scoring game.

Something has to give when the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys meet today because Carolina and Dallas are a combined 6-0 against the spread.

Carolina has made the most of its early-season opportunities and its defense looks legit. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys present the toughest test to date but there is just something I don't trust about this Cowboys team.

The Panthers continue to be without star running back Christian McCaffrey, but they have one of the league's top defenses. The Panthers have invested heavily in their defense in recent years, while the Cowboys are depleted on that side of the ball.

It's hard to imagine that either team will run away with this one, but laying more than a field goal with a team due for a dud is risky. Give me the Panthers and the free 4 points in a coin flip of a game.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Cowboys 23

The Chicago Bears were a mess in Justin Fields' debut as an NFL starter, while the Detroit Lions continue to scrap despite a lack of talent. Bottomline is the Bears shouldn't be favored against anyone right now.

Chicago just had the worst offensive performance by any team in the NFL this year, accumulating 47 total yards in 42 plays at Cleveland while surrendering nine sacks with Fields. The Lions have at least shown some fight by battling hard against three difficult opponents. I like the Lions here in a low scoring game to pick up their first win of the season.

Prediction: Lions 23, Bears 14

**Kansas City -7.5**

The 1-2 Chiefs have had a brutal opening schedule against CLE, BAL and LAC (3 of the best) and are a turnover and 4th down conversion away from being 3-0 in those games. Philly is a talented team with weapons at receiver, but they are young (and it shows), plus now both lines are banged up. Chiefs will flex their muscles this weekend.

Pick: KC -7 (-115)

**Dallas -4.5**

CAR defense has been great, sure, but they have played Wilson and Mills in their first ever start + Jameis. Now they get Dak & Dallas, and plus their defense got banged up on TNF. I can't trust Darnold to keep up.

**Baltimore +1.5**

DEN 3-0 but plays the easiest schedule of opponents (NYG, JAX, NYJ) to start season. BAL big lead against LV, wins vs KC and despite the final score puts up big numbers on DET. Look ahead to reopen flips, as I think Ravens will be slight favorites by kick.

In two games against FBS opponents (Auburn and Temple), Akron allowed 9.0 yards per play and 105 total points. And this isn't a new phenomenon for the Zips, who ranked bottom 10 in the nation in points allowed per game in each of the last two seasons.

Ohio State failed to cover the 24 point spread against Tulsa last week, only winning by 21 (41-20). And one concern for Buckeye bettors is the accuracy of QB C.J. Stroud, which has been suspect in first three games.

But if there was ever a game for OSU to get their offense going, I think this is it as Akron is one of the worst teams in D1 football. Look for both quarterback C.J. Stroud and running back TreVeyon Henderson to have MONSTER days in a Buckeyes blowout. Not a fan of laying 50 points so looking at the OVER 66.5 points in this one (slight lean).

Prediction: Ohio State 63, Akron 14

North Carolina just allowed 553 passing yards against Virginia, but the Tar Heels still won by 20 because Sam Howell did his usual thing, racking up more than 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards with five total touchdowns for a second successive week.

Georgia Tech's defense is better than UVA's. The Yellow Jackets have held each of their first three opponents below 140 passing yards and below 170 rushing yards. Here's something I didn't expect to say before the season: Shutting down North Carolina's offense is going to be a lot harder than stifling Clemson's. I am far from convinced that GT has a good enough passing game to keep pace with the Heels.

Prediction: North Carolina 42, Georgia Tech 23

Fresno State's Jake Haener is making a compelling case for Heisman consideration, averaging 366 passing yards and 3.25 total touchdowns per game. UNLV has been held below 100 passing yards and below 100 rushing yards in each of its past two games. Even if you're a little worried about the apparent hip injury Haener suffered late in the comeback win over UCLA, don't overthink this one because UNLV is bad, really bad.

Prediction: Fresno State 45, UNLV 10

Auburn came up short last week over Penn State but the Tigers did at least prove themselves to be a threat this year. We weren't sure what to make of those blowout wins against over-matched Akron and Alabama State, but it appears Bryan Harsin has this program in a good place in his first year at the helm.

And get ready for another blowout victory. Georgia State lost by 33 to Army and by 42 to North Carolina, each of whom rushed for more than 200 yards and four touchdowns against the Panthers. Auburn is averaging a nation-best 7.8 yards per carry thus far this season and going to run wild against this Georgia State sieve of a defense. The sharp money has moved this line from -23 (opening) to -27 and rightfully so....I think this line could be covered by half time.

Prediction: Auburn 52, Georgia State 10

Fitz to Heinicke viewed as a downgrade within the market. Defense benefitted from easy schedule in 2020 and now looks over rated. Biggest # vs BUF since Week 4 last season. I don't see Heinicke as much of a down grade and Washington has one of the best defenses in the NFL, give me the pile of points.

Atlanta is 0-2 ATS and getting disregarded and NYG getting bumped up considering the box score on TNF. I like Falcons to surprise the Giants this weekend.

I think Tampa Bay is the better team through and through. QB, coaches, skill players, defense. I still think the Rams defense is over rated too - and now get their first big test of the season. And I'm not alone in this sentiment as the early public money pouring in on Tampa.

***MNF PROP LOCKS*** 👀

D’ANDRE SWIFT OVER 39.5 RUSHING YARDS - Swift is fresh off 100 yards from scrimmage in Week 1 and in his four starts last season (13 games played) Swift averaged 61.75 yards rushing per game, and he was one of the few bright spots for Detroit in a blowout loss last week against San Francisco. The lack of receiver depth indicates a heavy workload for him tonight, so Swift is in a great position to go over 39.5 (-120) yards tonight .

🔨💰5 UNITS 🔒LOCK IT UP!

DAVANTE ADAMS OVER 86.5 RECEIVING YARDS - Coming off a subpar performance of five receptions for 56 yards against the Saints‘ secondary in Week 1, Adams has a significant matchup upgrade this week against the Lions. Adams should be salivating to face off against AJ Parker (66.3 coverage grade in Week 1) and Amani Oruwariye (38.1), among others.

2 UNITS 🔒LOCK IT UP!

Taking double digit points here is tempting - sure Aaron Rodgers is coming off a horrible game but the Lions can’t stop anybody so this could be a perfect storm. While the Lions showed fight against the 49ers, which should be applauded, don’t confuse a late turnover and on-sides kick with talent. Rodgers is still Rodgers. And the Packers are about to take out some frustration on the Lions. Green Bay gets back to normalcy here in a 35-14 type of game...at least for a week.

Colorado looked legit against Texas A&M, but the Aggies lost their QB early in that one and I'm not sure the Aggies are as good as touted. I like Minnesota to pull off a slight upset on the road, with running back Treyson Potts looking like an adequate replacement for the injured Mohamed Ibrahim. Gophers are better on both sides of the ball.

Prediction: Minnesota 28, Colorado 24

Fresh off allowing 50 points and 582 passing yards against Arkansas State, Memphis' defense must now try to deal with Mississippi State's Will Rogers throwing the ball 50 or more times. But the Tigers are so good on offense that they still managed to beat Arkansas State 55-50, so they will bring quite a bit of firepower up against the Bulldogs defense. I do suspect the SEC defense will outperform the AAC defense over 4 quarters. I like MSU and the OVER 64 as I predict we see a pile of points in this game.

Prediction: Mississippi State 49, Memphis 37