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@SFDan

3 MO

Won 70% of last 10 NCAAB predictions

Despite their lack of size and rebounding, the Hurricanes have shown that they can still hang with bigger teams such as USC and Duke (splitting a pair of games and going 2-0 ATS against the Blue Devils). They should be able to do enough on the perimeter to stick around against Auburn. With the Canes going 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 games as underdogs, I like them here against an Auburn team that has struggled in recent weeks.

My vs predictions:

$100 | MIAMI +7.5

Wisconsin. Simple.

My vs predictions:

$250 | WISCN -5

I expect the Oilers to keep things relatively even at five-on-five - if not win outright - while causing all kinds of problems on the man advantage. Like Edmonton here but -160 is rich, let's try this ML tonight.

Hedge Bet: $100 Oilers -1.5 (+150)

My vs predictions:

$250 | EDM -1.5

Back-to-back situation or not, I think the wrong team is favored here.

Bet: Devils (+127)

My vs predictions:

$500 | NJ +127

KC already clinched the AFC West crown, is tied with the Tennessee Titans (11-5) for the best record in the conference. But because the Chiefs lost at the Titans 27-3 in Week 7, Tennessee win the tiebreaker. To earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed and bye, Kanas City needs to beat Denver and a Tennessee loss or tie at the Houston. In short, KC is still playing for something here because if they lose today they could fall at the way to a #4 seed.

The Chiefs will be motivated with a shot at claiming the AFC’s top seed, which comes with a bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They also might feel the need to prove something to themselves after blowing a lead and losing 34-31 at the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The setback snapped an eight-game winning streak for Kansas City, which was a 3.5-point favorite at Cincy.

Denver comes limping into this game, they are missing a slew of key players including Bridgewater who is done for the season, QB Drew Lock will make his third consecutive start. Lock is more than capable but won't have much support in this game and I think KC comes out and dominates.

Score Prediction: KC 27 - Denver 13

My vs predictions:

$500 | KC -10.5
$100 | UNDER 45

Cal looked great in last game routed Arizona State. USC coming off of a COVID pause and has played since 12/18. The Bears are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in three games since the Trojans have played last. Cal is in a nice rhythm, while USC will take a while to find its sea legs after the layoff.

This is a game Cal could win, love the +5.5 points here.

My vs predictions:

$250 | CAL +5.5

No wonder this opening line of -2 has ran up to -3.5. Wisconsin is the better team and and most of Iowa’s victories came against cupcakes. When the Hawkeyes faced better competition, they went 2-3.

Iowa beat Virginia and Maryland and lost to Purdue, Illinois and No. 11 Iowa State.

Love Wisconsin to win and cover this low spread.

My vs predictions:

$500 | WISCN -3.5

Despite the injuries and COVID distractions, Alabama seems to be more focused than ever. Cincinnati just doesn’t have the horses to hang with the Tide for a full four quarters. Bryce Young and the Alabama offense will find its rhythm and Will Anderson Jr. and the defense will be swarming. Alabama takes care of business and covers the 2 TD spread.

Alabama 38, Cincinnati 17

My vs predictions:

$250 | ALAB -13.5

I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Rutgers because they were just kind of shoehorned into this game at the last second. Based on looking at their season stats, they are not a team that is going to try to outscore their opponent and really just rely on the run game. With just 313 yards of offense per game, this will probably be one of the worst offenses Wake has played all season, so hopefully the defense will be able to keep them check. With the Scarlet Knights not having played in a month, it will probably take them a while to get back into the swing of things. Slight lean on Wake here but I think the UNDER 63 is worth a look here since Rutgers will burn clock with run game and won't score more than 14 points in this game.

My vs predictions:

$100 | WAKE -17
$500 | UNDER 63

The style of play will have under written all over it. Houston’s rush defense took a drastic step back in its conference championship game, an area that Auburn will look to exploit, especially without Nix under center.

Auburn is above average in the run game itself, ranking 37th in Rush Success and 47th in Line Yards. With the clock constantly churning in what is expected to be a tight slugfest, points may come to a premium.

Speaking of both sides of the ball, Houston is also an under friendly unit, as it’s 114th in plays per minute. While it has advantages in the passing game, gains will still be tough to come by, as the Tigers are 10th in Def. Line Yards and 15th in tackles for loss.

With Auburn expected to be going with more of a rush-heavy on offense and possessing the ability to get in the Houston backfield and cause mayhem on defense, I will take the under at 51.

My vs predictions:

$250 | UNDER 51

After starting out 7-0, SMU has dropped two straight. But they were both close games on the road, and UCF's offense has not recovered from losing quarterback Dillon Gabriel in September. Look for the Mustangs to get back in the win column in advance of next week's showdown with

Cincinnati.

Prediction: SMU 35, UCF 24 (slight lean)

My vs predictions:

$100 | SMU -7

Each of Miami's last five games has been decided by four points or fewer, and I see no reason to assume this rivalry game will end the streak of fourth-quarter drama. It's been a rough year for the Seminoles, but they have been competitive, but I still think Miami is the better team here and getting the Cane's inside of 3 points feels like the right side.

Prediction: Miami 32, Florida State 27

My vs predictions:

$500 | MIA -2.5

Georgia is starting to look a lot like the racehorse Secretariat. Heads and shoulders than anybody else on the track. I've been cashing tickets with the Bulldogs this season (6-3 ATS) and Vegas has seemed reluctant to give Georgia the credit they deserve.

Tennessee's offense is probably the best one Georgia has faced this season, so the defense might allow some points. Then again, Georgia held Arkansas, which has rushed for at least 197 yards in every other game this season, to 162 yards of total offense in a shutout, so I wouldn't put anything past this defense.

Vols QB Hendon Hooker is a duel threat guys and he has averaged 321.7 combined passing and rushing yards and 3.2 total touchdowns over his last six games, most of which came against defenses in the top half of the SEC. But Georgia's last four games were against Bo Nix, Will Levis, Emory Jones and a Missouri QB tandem that tried to run the ball 21 times. The Bulldogs have been well seasoned to deal with a mobile quarterback and will keep Hooker under wraps.

The real intrigue is whether this week provides any clarity on Georgia's December/January plans at quarterback. But would it matter if they never answer the Stetson Bennett/JT Daniels question? They'll split reps in yet another comfortable victory. Not in love with this 20 point spread but I'm not fading this Georgia defense and think the Bulldogs do enough here.

Prediction: Georgia 35, Tennessee 13

My vs predictions:

$250 | GEORGI -19.5

Liberty's defensive numbers look good this season - the Flames have allowed only one opponent to score more than 26 points against them, and they've allowed more than 26 points only once, too.

On the other hand, Liberty has only played two games against teams who rank top 95 in the nation in total yards per game, and those two teams (Syracuse and North Texas) both rank roughly 60th. Against an Ole Miss offense that ranks fourth, the Flames defense is going to get extinguished.

Malik Willis and Co. should do a decent amount of work on offense against a Rebels defense that isn't very good. But Ole Miss will get a few more defensive stops in this shootout. I like Ole Miss and the OVER 66 points.

Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Liberty 34

My vs predictions:

$100 | O-MISS -7.5
$100 | OVER 67

Kentucky did have an offensive explosion against LSU in Week 6, but it has been held below 250 yards of total offense in three of its last four games. It was also outgained by at least 150 yards in each of those three games, so keeping pace with what has been an impressive Tennessee offense won't be easy.

Kentucky quarterback Will Levis has yet another less than mediocre performance, while Hendon Hooker has a nice day for the Vols, and the Wildcats drop their third straight game.

Prediction: Tennessee 27, Kentucky 20

My vs predictions:

$250 | TENN -115

Northwestern has allowed 231.4 rushing yards and 2.8 rushing touchdowns per game in 2021, ranking among the worst in the nation in both categories. That run D has been especially putrid in Northwestern's five losses, allowing 315.6 yards and 4.2 touchdowns on average.

In spite of the recent losses, Iowa's defense has remained solid. The Hawkeyes did have an unusually bad day against Purdue's passing attack, but that was the outlier in what has otherwise been a great season. And at 19.0 points per game on the year, Northwestern isn't equipped to take on a great defense and I don't see the Wildcats offense scoring more than 7 points in this game.

Prediction: Iowa 27, Northwestern 6

My vs predictions:

$250 | IOWA -11.75

I'm just not convinced Big Blue's defense can slow down Dak Prescott, who has thrown for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last two weeks. The Cowboys have scored 77 points in that same span. They might have the most lethal offense in football.

But three of the Cowboys' four games have been decided by eight or fewer points, and the Giants seem to have found some rhythm on offense last week against the Saints. This is the third road game in four weeks for the Giants and the Cowboys' third straight home game, so there could be a rest advantage for Dallas. The Cowboys are likely to win this game outright, but I like the Giants getting seven points here behind a strong performance from Saquon Barkley. It feels like the perfect backdoor-cover scenario.

My vs predictions:

$100 | NYG +7

This has moved from -3.5 even though the Las Vegas is on short rest following a tough loss to the Chargers in what felt like a home game. The Raiders are getting far too much credit. They're a bottom-12 DVOA team, just like the Bears. Chicago has the better defense, led by former Raider Khalil Mack, and now an already-vulnerable Raiders secondary is banged up for a matchup with an unpredictable rookie quarterback. The Raiders offensive line isn't great either.

Running back David Montgomery (knee) is out for Chicago, but Damien Williams will be able to carry the mail. I think Chicago could win this one outright.

My vs predictions:

$250 | CHI +5.5
$100 | CHI +206

If Rutgers had shown frankly any signs of life this past weekend against Ohio State, I'd be all about picking this upset. The Scarlet Knights started out 3-0, played well in a loss at Michigan and now they get to host a Michigan State team that, despite a 5-0 record, has left much to be desired on defense.

Instead, OSU-Rutgers looked an awful lot like the "very good team against very bad team" matchup we've grown accustomed to watching in recent years. It was 24-0 in a heartbeat, 45-6 by halftime and 52-6 early in the third when Buckeyes coach Ryan Day decided to fill the field with backups.

Not only was Rutgers held to 17 points or fewer for a third consecutive game against an FBS opponent, but a defense that had held its first four opponents below 280 total yards was torn to pieces. Maybe the Knights will boot and rally to knock off Michigan State for a second consecutive year, but I'm not betting on it.

Prediction: Michigan State 34, Rutgers 23

My vs predictions:

$250 | MICHST -4

***DOG OF THE WEEK*** I'll tell you right now I like the Hogs this weekend and think the wrong team is favored here. Arkansas lost 37-0 to Georgia which could be why this line is tilted, but IMO Georgia is the best team in college football and maybe the best defense of the decade so I'm not looking at the Georgia game much here.

On the other side, Ole Miss trailed Alabama 35-0 before making the final score (42-21) a little bit more respectable. While Ole Miss has a dangerous passing attack, the defense is suspect at best and there's just something about this Ole Miss team that I don't trust. Maybe it's Lane Kiffin. lol

And I like the Razorbacks to pull off the road upset. (Arkansas is ranked higher, but Ole Miss is the favorite, so yes, it'd be an upset.)

This Arkansas defense has been every bit as stingy as Alabama's thus far this year. In fact, the Hogs' last four opponents have been held without a single passing touchdown and limited to 105.5 passing yards on average. (Granted, Georgia had to start its backup QB and didn't need to throw much, but stats are stats.)

Ole Miss will likely have more success running the ball in Week 6 than it did in Week 5, and I'm not suggesting that Matt Corral is going to get shut out. The Rebels will score a few times.

I just don't think it will be enough to make up for the difficulty Ole Miss is likely to have with an Arkansas rushing attack that has been potent against teams not named Georgia. The Hogs will dominate the time-of-possession and I think they walk away with the upset. Sprinkle the MONEY LINE!

Prediction: Arkansas 30, Ole Miss 27

My vs predictions:

$500 | ARK +5
$250 | ARK +160

I don't know what happened to Seattle in Minnesota, but I'm not betting against Wilson and Pete Carroll here as I don't see the Hawks falling to 1-3. Besides, the 49ers haven't convinced me they're a great team. They're dealing with some key injuries again, and that showed when they played down to the competition in Detroit and Philadelphia before falling to the Packers at home. Seattle wins outright.

My vs predictions:

$500 | SEA +2.5
@SFDan

8 MO

Won 60% of last 10 NCAAF predictions

Rare you see a 1-3 team laying 3.5 points to a 3.5 team. Houston had a head scratcher of a loss against Texas Tech to start the year but the Cougars have had their offense rolling in their last 3 games and Tulsa has just looked average at best this season. I've got to take the 3.5 free points here in a game Houston can win out right.

My vs predictions:

$250 | HOUSTO +3.5

The Cowboys win over San Diego last week looks a lot better now that the Chargers beat the Chiefs yesterday.

The Eagles have the edge here on the offensive line against an undersized and undermanned Cowboys defensive line. So as long as Hurts has time to throw downfield the Eagles should be able to put up points in this game, but I don't see Philly keeping pace with the Cowboys for 4 quarters. This Cowboys offense is chocked full of playmakers - not only do the Eagles have to worry about Ezekiel Elliott but also now have to worry about Tony Pollard.

Bottomline is the Cowboys have a really good offense, and that’s probably good enough, for now, to handle an Eagles team that is finding their identity under a new staff, in primetime. It’s close, but Dallas has the better team right now.

My vs predictions:

$250 | DAL -3.5

Did you know Russell Wilson is a perfect 7-0 in his career against the Minnesota Vikings? Even with last week's loss to the Titans, Wilson is still the league's highest-rated passer entering Week 3, and there's little reason to believe he won't again take care of business with Seattle laying just 1.5 points in Minnesota.

My vs predictions:

$250 | SEA -2

I can't help but feel that OU is a tad over rated this year and they will have their hands full against an underrated West Virginia team that played Maryland to a close game and beat a good VT team. It sure doesn't feel like Oklahoma is 3-0. The Sooners barely won their season opener against Tulane, and at no point were they clearly superior to Nebraska during the 23-16 home victory this past weekend. Things could get interesting in Norman this weekend and I think West Virginia stays with earshot.

Prediction: Oklahoma 35, West Virginia 24

My vs predictions:

$250 | WESTV +17.5

3-0 Iowa has impressive wins over Indiana and Iowa State. After understandably struggling on offense against the defenses of Indiana and Iowa State (combined total of 3.84 yards per play), I expected Iowa to flex its offensive muscles at home against Kent State. Tyler Goodson (22 carries, 153 yards, 3 touchdowns) had a career day, but that 30-7 victory still left something to be desired.

It's a good thing this Hawkeyes defense is ridiculously good, though, because that will pay dividends against a Colorado State team that has been held below 24 points in every game this season. Iowa's defense has scored as many touchdowns as it has allowed (three of each), and I'm not sure Vegas can set the under low enough to scare me away here. In what I predict is a low scoring game, I'll take the Rams +24 (-120) and love the UNDER 44.5 points here.

Score Prediction: Iowa 24, Colorado State 6

My vs predictions:

$100 | IOWA -24
$500 | UNDER 43.5

In Week 1, as a 6.5-point home favorite, Buffalo was upset by a Steelers team that deserved more respect from the home side and oddsmakers alike. The Dolphins, meanwhile, went to Foxborough as three-point road 'dogs and knocked off the divisional-rival New England Patriots. While neither result was truly surprising, I expect the script to flip this week with the Bills evening both their and Miami's record at 1-1 with a decisive road victory. Buffalo had huge expectations coming into the season, got a little early dose of reality, and will use that to right the ship today.

But at the very least, this sets up to be a hard fought game and Miami should be able to keep this close...I think the Dolphins have the talent on the back end to slow down Buffalo's passing attack, and the Bills apparently decided that running the ball is for suckers against Pittsburgh. If Miami can get pressure on Josh Allen without a ton of blitzing and avoid big mistakes, the Dolphins could win this game outright. But even if they don't, Miami should keep it close and the difference for me on this pick is the "hook" on this line.

Score Prediction: Bills 26, Dolphins 23

My vs predictions:

$250 | MIA +3.5

The Denver Broncos just took down the New York Giants with a double-digit road victory. So why are they laying just six points in another road game against the Jacksonville Jaguars? After all, Jacksonville has lost 16 straight games and was just smashed by a Texans team in disarray.

The Jaguars already have the feeling of a team coming apart at the seams after only one week and Urban Meyer is beginning to look like a bad experiment. Trevor Lawrence could be great one day but he's still green and doesn't have a lot of help on the O-line or at receiver.

Denver did lose receiver Jerry Jeudy to an ankle injury in Week 1, but that pass-catching corps is quite deep so nothing the fret about there IMO.

I predict it's going to be another long season for the Jaguars, Denver picks up the W today and covers the number.

Betting Pick: Denver -6

My vs predictions:

$500 | DEN -6

Miami didn't look good offensively last week against Alabama's defense but then again not many teams would. But D'Eriq King did complete 76.7 percent of his pass attempts against an excellent Crimson Tide defense. And though he didn't do much running (five positive rushes for a total of 31 yards and four sacks for a loss of 21 yards), that appeared to be much more a product of Alabama's defense than any lingering effects from the torn ACL. Appalachian State is a mighty fine Group of Five team with a dominant rushing attack that doesn't get enough national attention year after year, but color me skeptical that it'll be able to contain a healthy dual-threat Heisman candidate. I like D'Eriq King to get the Canes offense going today and do just enough to cover this 8 point line.

Prediction: Miami 34, Appalachian State 24

My vs predictions:

$100 | MIA -7.5

Notre Dame made it to the playoffs last year but were then trounced 31-14 by the national champs Alabama. Notre Dame always gets their share of blue chip players and they are going to need it because they only have nine starters returning from last year, and only 3 on offense. Notre Dame comes into this season green and ranks 128th in the nation in terms of experience. Ian Book is gone at QB but the Irish should have a solid replacement in Jack Coan, who the Irish picked up in the transfer portal from Wisconsin. Coan did not play last year, but in 2019, he threw for 2727 yards with 18 TDs.

Florida State HC Mike Norvell did not have a great first season at the helm of the Seminoles as he went just 3-6 last year. He should have an improved team on his hands this year with 50 lettermen back, including 17 starters. Florida State should be loaded on offense with 7 starters on offense and also picked up mcKenzie Milton from Central Florida. Milton has not played the last two years as he was recovering from a very bad knee injury, so it will be interesting to see if he lost anything from his days at UCF. The Florida State defense ranked a paltry 9th last year in the ACC but should be much improved with 7 starters returning on that side of the ball.

Pick: The betting line has moved in favor of the Noles since it opened with Notre Dame favored by 10.5 points, so big line move, with the sharp money hammering FSU. I’ve got to take the points and the Noles in this game, I just think Notre Dame could struggle out of the gate with a young team that lacks continuity. Florida State on the other hand is returning 50 letterman and 17 starters and that’s the difference here for me. I like FSU a lot more at +10.5 but will still take the points here on their home field.

My vs predictions:

$250 | FLAST +7
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