sammy52

Oklahoma State did not convincingly win either of its first two games against Missouri State or Tulsa, and it perhaps would have lost the latter if not for a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown during a fourth-quarter comeback. But then there's Boise State, whose defense was completely shredded by UCF while the Knights came back from an early 21-0 deficit. The Broncos also could not run worth a darn in that game, and they weren't much better on the ground in a blowout win over UTEP. Doesn't feel like there is a ton of value here for bettors, but I'll back Boise State here at home.

Prediction: Boise State 31, Oklahoma State 24

Chicago has won three straight and five of its last six games while going 5-1 ATS. This game opened with Phoenix laying 5 points and the market has steamed the Suns up to the current price, which makes me feel better about the Bulls here.

Phoenix is quietly one of the best teams in the league to start the season: 7-3 ATS, third in net rating and fourth in effective field-goal percentage. The Washington Wizards are dealing with off the court issues with COVID-19, it looks like Bryant is out for the year, and Beal just said the defense can't defend a parked car. Something small here with Phoenix -7 on the road.

C Richaun Holmes (ankle) questionable for Kings tonight and from my intel this questionable status should be closer to doubtful. Without Holmes in the middle the Kings won't have an answer for Pacers down low. Holmes was a late scratch vs. the Blazers on Saturday, prompting coach Luke Walton to deploy a small starting lineup with Marvin Bagley at center -- that experiment did not go well at all. Will be watching this one close during warm ups but tentatively taking Indiana -5.5.

Cleveland has hit the Under in seven in a row, posting 99 or fewer points in each of the past six. They are scoring just 102.1 PPG to rank 29th, and they’re allowing just 103.3 PPG to rank second defensively. But the Bucks will be able to crack the code and will score plenty on their home floor. Lean to the Over.

I am not sure what the sharps are seeing, but 76% of the money wagered is on the Timberwolves while 69% of the tickets/bets placed are on the Spurs, according to Pregame.com. Typically the money column is the sharp side, and the bets placed column is the average joe. Maybe some wise guy with deep pockets has a tip on KAT’s questionable game status. But regardless, this line has been bet down from Minnesota getting 7 points on the opener to the current number, and we should follow the money. Minny +4.5

The Ravens won’t move the ball as easily against a talented Giants defensive front as they did against the Jaguars. But the Giants don’t convert on third down, and they don’t finish drives in the end zone. So they won’t keep up with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who know they must win out to have a good chance at the postseason

Score: Ravens 27, Giants 14

Purdue defeated Notre Dame 88-78 Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite on a neutral floor. Iowa suffered its first loss of the season Saturday, dropping a 99-88 decision to top-ranked Gonzaga, the Hawkeyes got down 51-37 in the first half and couldn't overcome the deficit but actually outscored the Zags in the 2nd half.

Tempted to take Iowa here but this spread is pretty spot on per KenPom projected score of Iowa 83-76 (72%). The Over 154.5 is the best bet here, the Hawkeyes lead the country with 98.7 PPG, a good reason why they’re 7-0 vs. the O/U. The Boilers average 74.6 PPG and own a 5-3 O/U record. We should see some points in this matchup today between two very prolific offenses.

I’ve said it all season, the 2020 Buckeyes are not as good as the 2019 Buckeyes. The dominance doesn’t come up as easily, the secondary has struggled severely with some deep passing attacks and the running backs leave a bit to be desired. Sure they still have some super-nova's on offense but favored by 20 points is just a head scratcher here. The Bajakian offense will keep Northwestern in this game and reaching 24 points should be expected, but containing the OSU offense is just too tough of a task. Nonetheless, I predict we see a closer than expected game today. Ohio State 28 - Northwestern 24.

Ohio State barely got past Cleveland State and I just think if you have to scrape by Cleveland State, you’re going to have a hard time dealing with the balanced attack of Purdue. The points are tempting especially if E.J. Liddell can go in this game as he’s missed time with a non-COVID illness, but I’m still riding with Purdue here.

Butler hasn't played in weeks and only has one game under their belt which was a game against Western Michigan where they were favored by 16 and only won by 4. Villanova is off to a strong start with a handful of notable wins, and they've covered four of their last five games. This line is a bit steep, but we have a better idea of where Villanova is at as a team and its a little easier to trust them with a larger sample size. Not in love with this one but slight lean on Villanova if forced to play it.

Some guys seemed startled when the Ravens opened as a slight road favorite against the 9-3 Browns. But here’s a reality check: The Ravens have outscored opponents by 85 points while the Browns have been outscored by 15. That’s not the end of the story, but it suggests the teams’ respective records are misleading. Tonight the Browns will try to prove to themselves that they are for real and the Ravens are fighting for the playoffs. The Ravens dismantled Cleveland earlier this year and I think it happens again tonight.

New England started out 2-5, but has gone 4-1 across its past five outings, and cannot be eliminated from the AFC playoff picture just yet.

Cam Newton was questionable for this game but has been cleared (abdomen soreness) and is a GO tonight. The Patriots are playing their best football of the season right now and while they have a laundry list of players on their injury report, there's not any notable skill position players which is good news. I like the value with the points here tonight with the Pats defense against Goff who has underwhelmed this season.

UNDER is the very, very slight lean. The Patriots , but we've got two great defenses and two average offenses which sets up for a defensive matchup.

Another one worth watching today with two undefeated teams going at it. The Maryland Terrapins look for another win to improve to 5-0 on the season and Clemson trying to notch another win to get to 4-0 on the season.

Clemson has been the more surprising team this season with wins over Mississippi State and Purdue. Maryland has had a much softer schedule, but it's fair to say they're the more talented team here and have the offensive depth to counter this feisty Clemson defense. Clemson could surprise here and win this game but I'll take the free bucket with the more overall talented team in Maryland.

The Oklahoma Sooners will look to stay unbeaten after improving to 2-0 on the year with an 82-78 win over TCU in their last game. Xavier will also look to remain unbeaten, sitting at 6-0 on the year after a 77-69 win over Cincinnati last time out.

This is going to be one of the better games on the board today and these two teams matchup against each other very well, but Xavier is the more tested team here with 6 wins and OU has only played 2 games. The Musketeers have showcased their scoring to open the season as 4 different guys are averaging over 11 PPG, but they have been extremely impressive in the frontcourt with Zach Freemantle leading the way with 17.2 PPG. I like Xavier to win their 7th in a row at home tonight.

This game has been labeled by some as a trap game, but I don’t think Mike Zimmer is going to allow his team to underperform against a Jaguars team that seems to be tanking for a top quarterback. I feel like this is going to be a “get right” type of game for the Vikings’ defense, but the Jaguars skill position players shouldn’t be taken lightly. Kirk Cousins is going to have another big day with the return of Adam Thielen and I fully expect both him and Justin Jefferson to have a big day against a bad Jaguars secondary. Vikings 34 Jaguars 17

It really doesn’t matter if Tua Tagovailoa or Ryan Fitzpatrick get the start this week. The Bengals run defense will be put to the test, and both of these quarterbacks know how to extend plays, which has really hurt this defense struggling to find a consistent pass rush.

This is a real long shot for the Bengals, but I do think the double digit spread is a bit much, even for how far apart these teams are on paper. It definitely won’t feel as close as the score will be though.

Bengals 17, Dolphins 24

Duke coming off a big win against Duke (and previously beat Notre Dame), so this veteran Spartans team seems poised to make a run this season. On the other side, this is Detroit's season opener as their first 3 games were cancelled due to COVID. The Titans are coming off of a lackluster 8-23 season but should be much improved this year. The Titans have seven transfer players on their roster. MSU recruited 6-11 forward Taurean Thompson, who initially chose Syracuse before transferring to Detroit and the Titans bring back the coach’s son, 6-foot-1 junior guard Antoine Davis, who is a two-time first-team Horizon League pick who averaged 24.3 points, so he will be the engine for Detroit's offense tonight. This could be a classic let down spot for Michigan State here tonight and Detroit should be poised for a much better year than last season. Always tough picking a team here with their season opener but I'll take a chance with the points.

Due to COVIC schedule reshuffling, Florida replaced first four games—Uconn, UMass Lowell, Virginia and Oklahoma with games against Army on Wednesday and this game against Boston College. Florida was 22 point favorites against Army but struggled in that game only beating Army 75-69.

Boston College opened their year with a competitive effort against No. 3 Villanova, but lost 76-67. BC also managed to beat Rhode 69-64 in the 2K Empire Classic tournament.

I like what BC did against #3 Villanova and didn't like what I saw in Florida's first game against Army. Give me BC and the points here.

Seattle is a good basketball team with 5 guys on the floor that can all score on you. Terrell Brown, Morgan Means, Myles Carter and Delanted Jones all averaging over 12 PPG. And Seattle's defense held Air Force to 45 points in their blowout win of the Falcons.

19.5 feels like a shit pile of points against this athletic Redwawks team.

The Hogs beat North Texas in their last game 69-54 and UTA much better program than UNT. Arkansas is improved this season but 15 feels like a lot of points against this athletic Mavs team.

Tonight's game all depends on if North Carolina can shoot better than 42% from the field and clean up the turnovers. The Tar Heels have to take better care of the basketball against the Longhorns than they did in Tuesday night’s game against Stanford. For sloppy game in which the Tar Heels turned the ball over 24 times, and they did so in just 72 possessions. Stanford turned those 24 turnovers into 22 points, and in turn kept the game close throughout.

On top of that, North Carolina committed 22 personal fouls, sending Stanford to the free throw line 24 times. And to make things even worse, the Tar Heels missed nine of their 24 attempts at the charity stripe, a place where they’ve connected on just 68.8 of their shots to start the season. The Tar Heels have the goods to be back in the thick of the ACC race but so far are playing like a young team with no cohesion.

Texas knew they had something special in Greg Brown and the Longhorns are shooting 48% from the field and have a big edge in rebounding against North Carolina who has struggled on the boards this year.

All things considered I just think Texas is a safer play at this point. North Carolina could buck the trends tonight but right now their shooting and turnovers are too big of a concern. Hook em'.

#10 Duke against #4 Michigan State will be the best thing on TV tonight.

Duke struggled against Coppin State in a game where they were favored by 40 and won by 10 and gave up 71 points. The Blue Devils have their next star in Jalen Johnson but after an unimpressive start, the real tests are coming to Cameron Indoor with Michigan State and Illinois, starting with the Spartans tonight.

Michigan State jumped up in the AP Polls to #4 after they took apart Notre Dame for one of the most impressive wins of the weekend, winning 80-70.

Hard not to take the +3.5 points from what we've seen so far and should be a high scoring game if the trends continue.

Undefeated 2-0 teams Oklahoma State and Marquette should be the game of the night. Cowboys had easy win over Texas-Arlington and 20 point win against Texas Southern. Marquette beat up on AR-Pine Bluff and Eastern Illinois in their first two games and covered both games.

Marquette averaged 83 points in first two games so interested to see how they fair against Ok State's D tonight.

Ok State is ranked #32 in the AP Polls and while mediocre last season, the Cowboys have the top freshman in the country in Cade Cunningham and they have built enough around him to be a major factor in the Big 12. Big test for the Cowboys here tonight but I like the points.

New England has found ways to keep the games close this season, so I think they’ll do that for three quarters. But the Cardinals‘ talent levels are superior to that of the Patriots. Arizona breaks out in the fourth quarter.

The battle of the 0-4 teams.. two really bad football teams here but New Mexico has at least shown they aren't totally inept on offense. Utah State has been flat awful this season. The common denominator for these two teams is Nevada, the Lobos plays Nevada to a 7 point game (20-27) and Utah State got blown out 34-9. Bottom line here is New Mexico is bad but Utah State is worse.

Pick & Prediction: New Mexico 35- Utah State 25.

Toledo has a great group of running backs, Eli Peters is a solid quarterback and Toledo has more play makers. This spread feels about right bit I think Toledo does just enough.

Tulane is 3-0 in their last 3 games but that's a function of the competition they've played lately. As the betting odds indicate, Tulsa is the better team here and has the more explosive offense. Tulsa locked down two of the better offensive teams in the conference in SMU and UCF this season, including the outright win over the Knights as 20.5-point underdogs. Tulsa should have no problem out pacing Tulane here over 4 quarters.

This one is tough for me. The Vikings are surging and the Bears are slumping, but it’s a prime-time game and Chicago might be ready to get on back track. I think it’s close, but right now, Dalvin Cook is one of the best running backs in the NFL and I think he proves it tonight and Minnesota wins 3 in a row. Prediction: Vikings 20, Bears, 13.

It’s hard to read too much into one game, but Miami Ohio fans have to like what they saw in the opener last week opener against Ball St. winning 38-21. Despite Gabbert’s absence, Miami (Ohio) finished last week with 422 yards (5.7 per play) and had five scoring drives of 52 yards or more.

The strength of Buffalo’s offense rests up front in the trenches and in the backfield with a pair of standout running backs. All-America candidate Jaret Patterson and backup Kevin Marks both eclipsed 1,000 yards last year and started off strong in the opener. Buffalo won’t throw it much if Patterson and Marks are hammering away at the defense, but quarterback Kyle Vantrease is plenty capable. The junior edged Matt Myers for the starting job and threw for 175 yards and a touchdown over 11 completions in the win over Northern Illinois last week.

Buffalo was the much better team last year and I think that holds true this year and I put more value over a big win over NIU then I do over Ball St. I think the front five of Buffalo coupled with their two All-American RB's and better QB will be too much for the Redhawks to keep up with for 4 quarters.