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🔒 ***Missouri St. +6***

Missouri St. is another dog I like today. The Bears have a dynamite guard in Mosley and a big man in Gaige Prim that can hang on the perimeter with OU big man Tanner Groves. OU got beat up down low all season in the Big 12 and I think the Bears will feast in the paint today.

🔒 ***Wyoming +4***

This is a game Wyoming can win out right, so let's sprinkle the moneyline here. While Indiana is the hot team at the moment, I think they are in an unfavorable spot as a fav here. The team was able to do damage in the Big Ten tourney as underdogs, but now will be the hunted.

I like Wyoming's swiss army knife guard Hunter Maldanaldo and Wyoming has shot makers on the outside in Wenzel and Xavier to hang in this game.

Wyoming has played teams close all season and statistically the better team on both ends of the floor.

I don’t think Lane Kiffin will spoil the rare opt-in from Corral. Looking statistically, Ole Miss has higher predicted points added and yards per play differentials.

My hesitation with Ole Miss is Baylor has a strength-on-weakness edge in its favor. Baylor is 17th in rushing yards per game, and Ole Miss’s defense ranks 102nd in rushing yards allowed per game.

Tough game to call but I'm looking for Corral to go out with a bang.

While we were waiting for Oklahoma to wake up and start taking its CFP opportunity seriously, Oklahoma State seems to have answered that call instead, winning its last three games by a combined margin of 119 points while emerging as the Big 12's top dog.

The Cowboys stomped a mudhole through TCU this past weekend with 447 rushing yards and eight (yes, eight) rushing touchdowns in a 63-17 victory. Not too shabby for a team that has been better known for a defense allowing a third-best-in-the-nation mark of 282.8 total yards per game.

Oklahoma State will bring that new-found offense to Lubbock to face a Texas Tech defense that gave up 52 points to Oklahoma, 52 points to TCU and 70 points to Texas earlier this season. The Red Raiders did just pull off an upset of Iowa State, but the Cyclones got off to a slow start in that game and their 2nd half rally came up short.

You might be tempted to take Tech and the points here with the way QB Donovan Smith looked against ISU last week, but I don't expect lightning to strike twice, not against this Ok State defense.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Texas Tech 23

Even though Clemson's defense has been great this season, Wake Forest will score in this one. I thought NC State might be the team to slow the Demon Deacons, but no, they scored at least 35 points for the 10th straight time. The Tigers allowed 27 to Pittsburgh and 24 to Louisville in the past month, and there's a chance Wake Forest keeps that 35-point streak alive in Death Valley.

Clemson is finally showing some signs of life on offense with at least 30 points in three straight. And for as great as its offense has been, Wake Forest's defense has allowed 39.0 points over its last six games.

Even though there has not been a single Clemson game yet this season in which the total reached 55 points, we're going to be treated to another Wake Forest-fueled shootout. But Clemson at home is tough to bet against as the Tigers have not lost at home since Nov. 12, 2016.

Good luck picking the side in this one, but I do think there is value in the OVER 56.5 points.

Prediction: Clemson 38, Wake Forest 31

This is an angry Alabama team fresh off an uncharacteristically poor offensive performance against LSU. It's going to get ugly, but I just don't think Alabama is as good as we've seen in years past and they are also starting to get hit with injuries and will be w/o their center today.

Probably not advisable to play this game but if forced to play it I would take the points as Bama's offense doesn't have the 6th gear this year like in years past.

Prediction: Alabama 52, New Mexico State 7

Washington State has won four of its last five games with Jayden De Laura emerging at quarterback.But Cougars' run defense has not looked great- they got gashed by BYU, Oregon State and Utah.

Against an Oregon team that thrives on the ground on offense and that hasn't allowed 250 passing yards on defense since Week 2 against Ohio State, that doesn't seem like the recipe for an upset, but 2 TD's just feels like too many the way WSU has played over their last 5 games.

Prediction: Oregon 34, Washington State 23

Idaho State is 1-7 against FCS opponents. BYU didn't impress me in their loss to Baylor but they are finally healthy and it showed last week, as the Cougars exploded on offense last week, pounding Virginia 66-49. He won't get nearly as many touches this week, but I predict Tyler Allgeier has another field day a blowout win.

Prediction: BYU 52, Idaho State 6

The Washington Football Team secondary is not good - but can ATL test it? Through three weeks, Ryan has the lowest intended/completed air yards of any starting QB. ATL OL is a disaster, WFT pass rush can finally matter vs restricted ATL OFF. ATL -1.2 NetYPP and -12% net success.

Kirk Cousins being lauded for his opening three weeks...but if there is anyone that knows how to defend him, it is Kevin Stefanski, and he has a defense to do it. Minnesota 2-1 but -0.7 NetYPP & -2% net success. Cleveland 2-1 but league best +1.9 and +11% net success.

New Mexico an ideal opponent for a "get right" game for Texas A&M after it barely eked out a 10-7 victory over Colorado in Week 2.

A&M starting QB Haynes King suffered a fractured leg against the Buffaloes, so it will be the Zach Calzada show for the foreseeable future. It took Calzada a couple series to look comfortable but he played better as the game went on and has the tools to be effective. It won't much matter in this game, though. Texas A&M should be able to run the ball all over the Lobos. New Mexico is one of the worst teams in football and Aggies are going to steam roll them.

Prediction: Texas A&M 42, New Mexico 9

Darvish has been awful since the “spider tack” policy went into effect and was awful for the entire month of August. No way Padres with Darvish here deserve to be -220 favs. Got to like Arizona and big plus money out of principle here.

Plesac has a 6.75 ERA against the royals...minor's ERA isn't much better against Cleveland though. That being said, Cleveland has won the last four games in Kansas City and has taken eight in a row from the Royals so I'm not trying to fade that trend.

Wrong team favored. Detroit has the better pitcher in Skubal and the better offense, got to love getting +127 money in this spot. But Tigers bullpen isn't great so maybe hedge with a first half bet here (First 5) to take the pen out of the equation.

Baltimore is on a 19-game losing streak. These guys are flat terrible. Only once over the course of the streak have they scored more than 4 runs. They might not be last in scoring for the season, but they are last in team ERA at 5.80.

The Angels are no juggernaut and Dylan Bundy has the oddsmakers spooked a little bit here, but when it comes to Orioles games the only choice to make is to whether go with the money line or the run line on the fade.

In July and August, Lynn has made 8 starts and the White Sox are 7-1 in those games. Only twice has he given up more than 1 run. Alek Manoah has made 12 starts in his rookie season. Only a couple of them have been poor, but his last one against Washington was his worst of the year. Chicago is a slight favorite here with the pitching edge that Lynn offers but there’s value with Manoah and Toronto's offense as an underdog in this spot.

The Rays are an impressive 39-23 at home but this is a spot to fade Tampa. Patino struggled in his last outing and Keuchel is a good enough journeyman to navigate the Rays lineup and avoid the long ball. I expect Kuchel to do enough, grab the early lead and the White Sox bullpen will lock it up late.

Kenta Maeda has not been as good as he was last season either. The simple analysis is he has been just too easy to hit. Combine that with an increased walk rate and it is easy to understand why his ERA has jumped from 2.70 to 4.50. Maeda could keep the Yankees offense in check but don't bet on it. And the Minny bullpen is not great with a 4.76 ERA, so even if this one is close early look for the Yankees to bust it open in later innings.

The Rangers are 6-1 across Dunning’s last seven starts. He allowed no more than 3 runs in any of those appearances, giving up 11 total earned runs over 34 2/3 innings. The Rangers aren’t a strong opponent, but Dunning has pitched well of late and will keep Texas in this game. And Sale might have the name recognition but there are a lot of question marks here as this is only his second start since 2019. If you are looking for a long shot, I think this spot is better than most.

Don’t look now but the cubs have won 2 in a row and despite all their recent struggles they still have a winning record at home. But other than outfielders Ian Happ and Jason Heyward there are not a lot of recognizable names in the lineup.  But against Keller and KC, this is a good spot for the Cubs to win 3 in a row. The Royals are one of the worst pitching teams in the MLB, and Brad Keller hasn’t helped much this season. Kansas City has won just 1 of Keller’s last 10 starts. Like Keller, the Cubs have won just 1 of his last 10 starts and his 5.00 ERA would be a career-high. It feels a little odd to see the Royals as the favorites here.

Woodruff going to take Lester to the wood shed.

Both starters have ERA's over 4 and Josh Fleming has allowed 13 runs and 22 hits in his last 13.1 innings. Both teams averaging over 5 runs per game over the last two weeks and Seattles pen ERA is 4.05. Following the trends and taking the OVER 8.

@Godfather you are a fucking jinx, dude.

Joe Ross threw a quality start with 11 strikeouts on Sunday against one fo the tougher offenses in the Dodgers, going 6 2/3 innings with seven hits, three earned runs, and zero walks. Ross continues to to improve as the season progresses and now has a ERA 4.02.

Spencer Howard tossed three scoreless frames on Wednesday against the Yankees. Howard struck out two, allowed one hit, and walked one in the abbreviated start. The 24-year-old has struggled at the big league level over the past two seasons, but he was considered a top prospect entering the 2020 campaign but his ERA has swelled to 5.11 on the season.

Pick: Getting Washington here as a +105 dog is the value play here as Ross gives them a clear edge on the mound and offensively these two teams are comparable.

Muller has been touted as an up-and-coming starter for Atlanta but has had a bit of a bumpy start with a 1-3 record with a respectable 3.20 ERA.

Marcus Stroman pitched a gem in his last game against the Mets- allowing zero runs on one hit, one walk, and seven strikeouts in eight innings. Lowering his ERA to 2.59.

Pick: The problem with the Mets is their offense ranks almost dead last in MLB (27th) and ATL has the much better offense (ranked 8th). But at the end of the day good pitching beats good hitting and it’s just hard to consider betting against the Mets ace Stroman at this point, especially going up against a rookie in Muller.

This total is too high. Robbie Ray isn’t going to be giving up many runs in this game. In Ray’s last start he went seven innings giving up one hit and one run. Jordan Lyles hasn’t been great, but he has been serviceable. I like the UNDER 10 here.

Marlins offense has been running cold but they should find success against Matt Moore today.

The Over has cashed in both games in this series, although it barely got over the number both times. The Total in Game 1 opened up at 217, while the Total in Game 2 opened up at 221. The Total for tonight's contest opened up at 222 and has since dropped a point. Both these teams have played to the Under this postseason, but the Bucks are on a 4-game Over streak. I predict the Bucks bring a new level of effort to the offensive end tonight and the Suns will get theirs. Score: Bucks 116- Suns 113

Santillan has been solid enough this season to take a flyer on the Under 10.5. The Cincy weather calls for a warm night but relatively low humidity and an inward breeze helping the pitchers.

Carlos Martinez has been terrible all season and he is coming off another bad start. Martinez went three innings in his last start giving up eight hits and eight runs. Chad Kuhl sits with an ERA of 5.66 and he is also going to struggle in this game. Expect fireworks tonight.