The Washington Football Team secondary is not good - but can ATL test it? Through three weeks, Ryan has the lowest intended/completed air yards of any starting QB. ATL OL is a disaster, WFT pass rush can finally matter vs restricted ATL OFF. ATL -1.2 NetYPP and -12% net success.
Kirk Cousins being lauded for his opening three weeks...but if there is anyone that knows how to defend him, it is Kevin Stefanski, and he has a defense to do it. Minnesota 2-1 but -0.7 NetYPP & -2% net success. Cleveland 2-1 but league best +1.9 and +11% net success.
New Mexico an ideal opponent for a "get right" game for Texas A&M after it barely eked out a 10-7 victory over Colorado in Week 2.
A&M starting QB Haynes King suffered a fractured leg against the Buffaloes, so it will be the Zach Calzada show for the foreseeable future. It took Calzada a couple series to look comfortable but he played better as the game went on and has the tools to be effective. It won't much matter in this game, though. Texas A&M should be able to run the ball all over the Lobos. New Mexico is one of the worst teams in football and Aggies are going to steam roll them.
Darvish has been awful since the “spider tack” policy went into effect and was awful for the entire month of August. No way Padres with Darvish here deserve to be -220 favs. Got to like Arizona and big plus money out of principle here.
Plesac has a 6.75 ERA against the royals...minor's ERA isn't much better against Cleveland though. That being said, Cleveland has won the last four games in Kansas City and has taken eight in a row from the Royals so I'm not trying to fade that trend.
Wrong team favored. Detroit has the better pitcher in Skubal and the better offense, got to love getting +127 money in this spot. But Tigers bullpen isn't great so maybe hedge with a first half bet here (First 5) to take the pen out of the equation.
Baltimore is on a 19-game losing streak. These guys are flat terrible. Only once over the course of the streak have they scored more than 4 runs. They might not be last in scoring for the season, but they are last in team ERA at 5.80.
The Angels are no juggernaut and Dylan Bundy has the oddsmakers spooked a little bit here, but when it comes to Orioles games the only choice to make is to whether go with the money line or the run line on the fade.
In July and August, Lynn has made 8 starts and the White Sox are 7-1 in those games. Only twice has he given up more than 1 run. Alek Manoah has made 12 starts in his rookie season. Only a couple of them have been poor, but his last one against Washington was his worst of the year. Chicago is a slight favorite here with the pitching edge that Lynn offers but there’s value with Manoah and Toronto's offense as an underdog in this spot.
The Rays are an impressive 39-23 at home but this is a spot to fade Tampa. Patino struggled in his last outing and Keuchel is a good enough journeyman to navigate the Rays lineup and avoid the long ball. I expect Kuchel to do enough, grab the early lead and the White Sox bullpen will lock it up late.
Kenta Maeda has not been as good as he was last season either. The simple analysis is he has been just too easy to hit. Combine that with an increased walk rate and it is easy to understand why his ERA has jumped from 2.70 to 4.50. Maeda could keep the Yankees offense in check but don't bet on it. And the Minny bullpen is not great with a 4.76 ERA, so even if this one is close early look for the Yankees to bust it open in later innings.
The Rangers are 6-1 across Dunning’s last seven starts. He allowed no more than 3 runs in any of those appearances, giving up 11 total earned runs over 34 2/3 innings. The Rangers aren’t a strong opponent, but Dunning has pitched well of late and will keep Texas in this game. And Sale might have the name recognition but there are a lot of question marks here as this is only his second start since 2019. If you are looking for a long shot, I think this spot is better than most.
Don’t look now but the cubs have won 2 in a row and despite all their recent struggles they still have a winning record at home. But other than outfielders Ian Happ and Jason Heyward there are not a lot of recognizable names in the lineup. But against Keller and KC, this is a good spot for the Cubs to win 3 in a row. The Royals are one of the worst pitching teams in the MLB, and Brad Keller hasn’t helped much this season. Kansas City has won just 1 of Keller’s last 10 starts. Like Keller, the Cubs have won just 1 of his last 10 starts and his 5.00 ERA would be a career-high. It feels a little odd to see the Royals as the favorites here.
Both starters have ERA's over 4 and Josh Fleming has allowed 13 runs and 22 hits in his last 13.1 innings. Both teams averaging over 5 runs per game over the last two weeks and Seattles pen ERA is 4.05. Following the trends and taking the OVER 8.
Joe Ross threw a quality start with 11 strikeouts on Sunday against one fo the tougher offenses in the Dodgers, going 6 2/3 innings with seven hits, three earned runs, and zero walks. Ross continues to to improve as the season progresses and now has a ERA 4.02.
Spencer Howard tossed three scoreless frames on Wednesday against the Yankees. Howard struck out two, allowed one hit, and walked one in the abbreviated start. The 24-year-old has struggled at the big league level over the past two seasons, but he was considered a top prospect entering the 2020 campaign but his ERA has swelled to 5.11 on the season.
Pick: Getting Washington here as a +105 dog is the value play here as Ross gives them a clear edge on the mound and offensively these two teams are comparable.
Muller has been touted as an up-and-coming starter for Atlanta but has had a bit of a bumpy start with a 1-3 record with a respectable 3.20 ERA.
Marcus Stroman pitched a gem in his last game against the Mets- allowing zero runs on one hit, one walk, and seven strikeouts in eight innings. Lowering his ERA to 2.59.
Pick: The problem with the Mets is their offense ranks almost dead last in MLB (27th) and ATL has the much better offense (ranked 8th). But at the end of the day good pitching beats good hitting and it’s just hard to consider betting against the Mets ace Stroman at this point, especially going up against a rookie in Muller.
This total is too high. Robbie Ray isn’t going to be giving up many runs in this game. In Ray’s last start he went seven innings giving up one hit and one run. Jordan Lyles hasn’t been great, but he has been serviceable. I like the UNDER 10 here.
The Over has cashed in both games in this series, although it barely got over the number both times. The Total in Game 1 opened up at 217, while the Total in Game 2 opened up at 221. The Total for tonight's contest opened up at 222 and has since dropped a point. Both these teams have played to the Under this postseason, but the Bucks are on a 4-game Over streak. I predict the Bucks bring a new level of effort to the offensive end tonight and the Suns will get theirs. Score: Bucks 116- Suns 113
Santillan has been solid enough this season to take a flyer on the Under 10.5. The Cincy weather calls for a warm night but relatively low humidity and an inward breeze helping the pitchers.
Carlos Martinez has been terrible all season and he is coming off another bad start. Martinez went three innings in his last start giving up eight hits and eight runs. Chad Kuhl sits with an ERA of 5.66 and he is also going to struggle in this game. Expect fireworks tonight.
Urena has really struggled all season and in his last 3 starts he has allowed an eye popping 17 ER in only 11 innings of work. The Astros have won 10 straight games, nine of which were by at least two runs.
Pick: Houston -1.5 (-155)
Parlay: Houston with Minnesota Twins ($100 wins $106)
It's almost hard to believe this total is in the single digits given how poorly both starters have looked over the last month.
Jake Arrieta flashed during a solid outing Wednesday against arguably MLB's worst lineup in the Pirates, which followed a six-start stretch when he posted an 8.28 ERA. The 2015 Cy Young winner notched three or fewer strikeouts in five of those six starts for the Cubs - an alarming sign for a pitcher whose strikeout rate has been trending down in each of the previous six seasons.
On the other side, David Peterson has allowed nine runs across three innings over his last two starts while conceding three-plus earned runs in five of his last six outings for the Mets.
If these trends continue this game will reach double digits.
Garcia has been solid all season, but now that success is showing up in the win column. After an 0-3 start through his first seven games, he's won each of his past five. On the other side, BerrÃos allowed four runs in six innings in his last start, but don't look too much into his last start as the Twins ace still has a 3.52 ERA. It's dangerous taking the UNDER 9 here with two explosive offenses but I'm betting on both pitchers to keep the hits at a premium today.
Utah couldn't have gotten off to a worse start than it did in the series opener, but still managed to grab the W. As long as the Jazz shoots the ball better in Game 2 they should pick up the home win for a 2-0 lead.
Brett Anderson is going to run out of luck sooner rather than later. Vladimir Gutierrez was shaky last Thursday against St. Louis where he had a 31 pitch first inning, but Gutierrez is still the safer bet here as I don't trust Brett Anderson.
The Tigers' Casey Mize should be able to quiet the Mariners' bats and I think Seattle's Chris Flexen is good enough to to limit Detroit's anemic offense as well. With two of the weaker lineups in baseball and two solid starters, I'm on the Unders.
