mrmister

Between the recent wins over Alabama and Missouri, it's clear Texas A&M is figuring out this offense thing. It felt like quarterback Zach Calzada gained about three years' worth of experience in that performance against the Crimson Tide, and then running backs Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane paved the way against the Tigers. It was a 180 from what we saw from the Aggies through the first five weeks.

The same cannot be said for South Carolina, which has yet to reach 24 points against an FBS opponent this season. The Gamecocks defense also allowed 40 to Georgia and 45 to Tennessee, so this could get ugly if A&M continues to cook on offense.

Prediction: Texas A&M 38, South Carolina 14

NC State's defense is legit this year, they're allowing only 14.3 points and 292.7 total yards per game. Among ACC teams, only the Clemson D has been stingier on the scoreboard, and no one has been tougher to move the ball against. And the Wolfpack have been especially good on the ground, allowing just one rushing touchdown all season.

As was the case last week for Boston College against NC State, that means Miami will need something special from a quarterback (Tyler Van Dyke) who is only starting because of a season-ending injury to the previous starter (D'Eriq King). The offense hasn’t been bad under Tyler Van Dyke. Frankly he’s not King, and he only hit 44% of his passes with three picks against North Carolina, but he’s thrown for over 200 yards in each of his three starts and the team was in a position in each of the last two games to get wins.

Vegas only likes NC State by a field goal, but the Wolfpack should win convincingly and make Miami seriously consider adding Manny Diaz to the shockingly long list of head coaches who have already been fired.

Prediction: NC State 38, Miami 17

Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said his team's offensive performance last week against the Seattle Seahawks was its best in his eight-year tenure. But the Vikes have rarely been consistent offensively during that period, and quarterback Kirk Cousins is a Jekyll-and-Hyde.

Cousins has yet to throw an interception, but he gets his biggest test so far against this stingy Browns defense. With an unblockable Myles Garrett leading the defense and a two-headed rushing attack, Cleveland should control this game.

Garrett had 4.5 sacks against the Bears last week, and the Minnesota offensive line is far from legendary. The Vikes were desperate to save their season last week, but it's tough to keep that flowing two weeks in a row against high-quality opponents. A team with the league's 27th-ranked run defense could be in trouble against Mayfield and CO. today.

Dalvin Cook is questionable (but expected to play) but I still like the Browns here in what should be a helluva game.

Prediction: Browns 27, Vikings 23

Indiana has yet to play their best football this season. The Hoosiers threw two pick-sixes in their Week 1 loss to Iowa, and they committed four turnovers in a Week 3 loss to Cincinnati. I don't trust Penn State's offense to cover a double digit spread against this good Indiana team. If the Hoosier's play a clean game and avoid turning the ball over, we could see this game come down to the wire.

Prediction: Penn State 27, Indiana 21

At this point, it's pretty clear that Iowa's offense is lackluster, at best. The Hawkeyes are averaging below 300 yards of total offense per game, and their rushing attack has now been held to 1.7 yards per carry in two of their past three games. Not much offensive output from the Hawkeyes.

But Iowa's defense is exceptionally good. All four of the Hawkeyes' opponents have been held below 100 rushing yards and to 17 points or fewer, and that's going to be a substantial uptick in difficulty level for an undefeated Maryland offense that has faced a favorable schedule thus far.

Good luck picking a side in this one, but I do like think this game sets up for a low scoring game. Iowa's anemic offense combined with a stellar defense will keep this one under the total.

Prediction: Iowa 23, Maryland 14

Jorge Lopez is one of those guys that’s better than he’s recent…at least recently at least. He’s just 3-12 on the season but he is having some better luck lately, giving up only 3 runs in last 2 starts over 12 IP. Baltimore has actually won 4 of his last 5 starts. It’s hard to bet against Chris Sale but if he’s not 100% today then Baltimore is in a great spot to steal the game. I'll take a stab at the big plus money here.

Spencer Howard has been solid in last 5 starts. I feel magic in the air. Don't trust Rangers pen, but like Texas F5 Innings +155.

Jose Suarez gave up eight runs (four earned) in 3 1/3 innings on Tuesday against the Rockies. Jordan Lyles was great in his last start against Arizona only giving up 2 runs over 7 IP. Against my better judgement I'm going with Texas here.

Bryce Wilson was hit hard by St. Louis last week and gave up 5 earned over 4 innings. But Wilson bounced back in last start against the Mets not allowing any runs over 3 innings. I'm bullish on Wilson - he was brought up to fill in for the injured Tucker Davidson. He is a future starter, had a good spring, and is a better pitcher than what we’ve seen early.

Prediction: Wilson surprises tonight with 4-5 solid innings of work and Pittsburgh sneaks off to early lead. But I wouldn't be surprised if Pittsburgh’s pen blows it late. But at these odds, I'll take a flyer on Wilson and Pittsburgh +165 (1st Five Innings).

Both teams enter the Conference finals down one star player. Chris Paul, is still currently in the league’s health and safety protocol will miss Game 1 of the series. Kawhi Leonard is out for at least the first two games with a knee sprain. The bigger loss here is Kawhi for the Clippers.

With Leonard out, the Clippers no longer have the luxury of being able to confidently say they have the best player in the series on their side. On a given night, it could be George, but it could also be Booker or Paul (when/if he plays). It could even be Ayton, if can make the most of his size and skill against LA’s wings.

This series comes down to availability of Chris Paul.

With Paul for majority of games: Suns win in six games
Without Paul for majority of games: Clippers win in six games

TODAY'S PICK: Despite posting a pair of impressive victories with Leonard on the sidelines to put away Utah, I still feel the Clippers are sitting ducks against Phoenix ahead of this next series – especially coming off an exhausting 7 game series and without their best player in Kawhi. I’ll lay the points with Phoenix to start the series.

Score: SUNS 119, CLIPPERS 108

Stripling carried a 7.20 ERA into late May, but has allowed just one run over 12 innings in his last two starts.Ross Stripling has pitched better as of late and Toronto has the much better bullpen (3.65 ERA) compared to Houston's pen (4.41 ERA). I like Stripling to keep it rolling.

Kikuchi carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning his last time out against Texas, flashing much more intent behind his two-strike pitches than ever before. Kikuchi has been going deep into games too - going at least six innings in nine of his 10 starts this season. On the other side, Cobb has been phenomenal since returning from the injured list, allowing one run in 12 innings with 12 strikeouts in two starts. If both starters bring their A-game this one should be a defensive game.

The Braves have won the past three games started by Morton, who has posted a 2.50 ERA over that span. It’s going to be a lower scoring game, but the offense should be able to give Morton enough run support to get the W here at +123 plus money.

This matchup features two of the better teams in the C-USA with 7-2 Marshall taking on 9-4 Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky has defeated strong teams this season. They topped Rhode Island and Alabama of the SEC and have an experienced roster. Marshall had trouble on the road against L.A. Tech last weekend, surrendering 75 and 73 points respectively and the Hilltoppers are a better team than L.A. Tech. Western Kentucky has the edge defensively, the Hilltoppers have limited their opponent to an average of only 66 points in their four conference games, and the defense should help them get the win at home here today.

Hofstra normally plays a zone defense and that will frustrate some of the newer Delaware players, who normally wouldn't be getting this much playing time Gianmarco Arletti is a freshman guard who is averaging 15.4 minutes per game, but wasn't playing around five minutes per game until the last three games. He has performed fairly well, but asking a freshman to play 39 minutes is a tough ask against a seasoned Hofstra backcourt. Hofstra is only 1-4 ATS last 5 games and coming off of a 9 point loss to Northeastern in a game they were favored by 2 points, but Hofstra is still the better team here and I think they beat up on Delaware here this afternoon.

Bad weather in Fort Worth forecasted for game time. Going to be in low 30's with rain and snow mix, breezy (15-20mph, gusts 25), and wet (scattered showers). No one issue is that that bad, but combined it's a pretty ugly day. I think it's enough to effect scoring here today.

The Eagles have been playing better football since Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback, but so, too, have the Cowboys over the last two weeks. Dallas didn’t exactly beat titans in victories over the Bengals and 49ers, but its offense has played with function now that Andy Dalton is back under center.

The Cowboys defense is still pretty dreadful, and I’d imagine Hurts and Miles Sanders will be able to pile up some yards on the ground. But I think the Eagles secondary will be prime pickings for Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and the other Dallas receivers, even with cornerback Darius Slay back from a concussion.

Two susceptible defenses, I see a shootout, with the experienced Dalton providing the edge down the stretch.

Dallas 35-Philly 31

With Joey Bosa and Uchenna Nwosu missing this game, I’ll take the Broncos to win. Drew Lock played well in the last meeting and without two of the Chargers best pass rushers, it will be tough for them to generate any pressure on Lock.

Denver Broncos 27, LA Chargers 24

This is a game the Broncos can win. As long as they slow the tempo on offense, they should be able to control the game. Carolina will be without several players, including Christian McCaffrey, so the defense should be able to find some success. Traveling east and playing the early game is always a struggle for Denver, but I think they can steal a win against a banged up Panthers team. Love the points here in a game they can win out right.

Don’t get into a big twist about the rough defensive day against a Texas Tech team that was punchless for weeks before. The Cowboys won 50-44, but it had a better handle on the game than that.

Also, don’t get too fired up about the TCU 59-23 win over Kansas – everyone does that to Kansas. The Horned Frog running game has been strong over the last few weeks, but the production came against the Big 12’s weakest teams.

As we saw last week, the Ok State Cowboys still have plenty of offensive punch with Chuba Hubbard and LD Brown out. – Dezmon Jackson ran for 235 yards and three scores last week and the defensive side is among the best in the country at third down stops.

If OSU was at full strength and didn't have 3 of their stars on the sidelines, then this line would probably be closer to double digits but still like the Cowboys here even if it is more of a face of a below average TCU team.

North Carolina has one of the top quarterbacks in the nation in Sam Howell and the Tar Heels offense should find success against BC's linebackers and secondary. This spread feels about right here as I predict North Carolina Tar Heels wins a 31-17 type of game. Maybe something small on the Under 54 here if forced to play it.

Against my better judgement I'm chasing w/ SMU -11 2H

Give me Bassitt over McCullers

Neither team is good at scoring goals and neither team has a very strong power play and without a good power play, its difficult to win games in the NHL. Neither side is very good at killing penalties either but since they have a difficult time scoring goals, that advantage is probably moot. The reality is Hellebuyck is terrific and the Kings will have a difficult time scoring and the Jets might get three off of Quick befoe he gets the hook in favor of Jack Campbell. I think Winnipeg is the right side here but not worth the -145 odds; the value play in this one is the UNDER 6.5.

Even though the Golden Knights are playing the second of back-to-back games, I am going with them in this one. Chicago did little to convince me they will be the playoff contenders this season, and except for Patrick Kane, who is playing at his usual level, there are no many players who can make a difference for the Hawks. One of the worst teams in penalty kill percentage is facing the best team in the NHL in that segment, and I don’t think the hosts have a chance against a top 6 defense.

I thought UCLA was turning the corner after the big win over Wash St and playing well against a good Arizona team, but then they relapsed again on us last week against Oregon State. Two very fickle teams here but Stanford is the healthier team here and has been the better team over the past 2 weeks. I like Stanford here at home in a close one.

I'm taking the Tribe on the F5 0 1/2 at -120. They're 8-20 against Banuelos with Luplow showing the power against him with 2 HR's. The Indians are also 10-7 SU in day games this year. Carrasco pitched well in 5 IP striking out 6 in his last outting against these same Sox only allowing 2 Hits and only 4 fly ball outs. Chicago's Roster has just a combined .538 OPS against Carlos in his career and in 183 plate appearances they've only walked 6 times while striking out 60 times. Love Cleveland F5 but you could do well for yourself parlaying this one with say the Yankees or Astros tonight.

The Yankees have plenty of walking wounded and took another blow when it was announced that Luis Severino has a Grade 2 lat strain and will be shut down for six weeks. With all the pieces missing, it’s led to relying on a lot of secondary options in the lineup for New York. Unlike the Yankees, Houston is pretty healthy and ready to go. McHugh was solid in his last start and has pitched well at Minute Maid Park through out his career. The Astros have the better lineup at the moment and like them at virtual PK tonight.