***UNDER 140*** Davidson has one of the best offenses in the country but their offense is methodical and don't play very fast. I expect the Wildcats to probe the defense on every possession and slow things down here. I like Davidson here in a lower than expected scoring game.
Miami’s season has been highlighted by wins over Duke and Virginia Tech on the road, as well as beating UNC and Syracuse at home. The Canes also played Duke very closely in the ACC tournament semifinals where they lost by only four points. Miami’s biggest flaw is their size. Miami’s average height is around five inches shorter than USC’s average height. USC is a massive team with six forwards 6’9” or taller, and four guards at 6’4”, 6’5”, 6’7”, and 6’9”. Miami will have trouble defending inside and I think that is problematic. I like USC here.
In each of its four games against non-Power Five teams this season, Cincinnati has won by at least 35 points. This one could be a little more interesting than usual, though, as Navy has a decent run defense and finished within one score of both 5-1 Houston (28-20) and 6-0 SMU (31-24). Navy didn't look good against an average Memphis team last week but 2 weeks ago, Navy almost upset a Top 20 SMU team.
I'm not saying the Midshipmen will win, but this will be less of a merciless blowout than Oklahoma-Kansas. I've got Navy doing just enough to stay inside the number here but treading lightly.
Oklahoma is back on track with quarterback Caleb Williams running the show, and Kansas' average margin of defeat against FBS opponents is 32.6 points. KU is 0-5 ATS in last 5 games and are one of the worst teams in D1 football.
Iowa State beat KU by 40 and Baylor beat KU by 30 and OU is better than both of those two teams. And even if Caleb Williams gets pulled after 2 quarters, then KU will will have worry about Spencer Rattler.
Tennessee put up one heck of a fight this past weekend against Ole Miss, but they still lost and we know what Bama did to Ole Miss already this season...with popcorn in hand.
As expected, the Bama' defense took the A&M loss to heart and came back against Mississippi State with seven sacks, three interceptions and no touchdowns allowed. Tennessee will probably find the end zone at least once, but Alabama has won this game by 31 to 39 points in eight of the past 11 years and I'm betting on these trends to continue.
Green Bay -11.5 points seems crazy after watching old man Rodgers drop an egg in week 1. A disgruntled Rodgers has checked out and quiet frankly the dude looks old and looks like he doesn't give AF. Give me Lions and the points.
Home court advantage may be worth more than 3 points. The Bucks have been absolutely dominant when playing in Milwaukee. Mike Budenholzer's team is 16-1 in their last 17 games at Fiserv Forum. That's a hard stat to ignore.
Also at home in the playoffs the Bucks have been lights-out on defense. No. 1 defensive efficiency mark (106.4 points allowed per 100 possessions).
The Bucks forced a turnover on 15.5 percent of defensive possessions in Game 3, and they also secured the rebound on more than 79 percent of Phoenix's misses. That's another big stat.
Pick: The Suns will continue to get dominated on the glass and Giannis will get his 40 points even if triple teamed. The 16-1 home playoff record is too much to ignore. Bucks and Unders.
According to Pregame.com, 70% of the money is on the Clippers and I think it's the right side. Both Leonard and George have better than a 60% true shooting percentage and have dominated Mavs last 2 games w/o any real support from the bench. Iâ€™m expecting progression from the Clippers bench tonight and even with a healthy Doncic, I think the one dimensional Mavs are in trouble in this series.
Philly has dominated Westbrook and the Wizards all season long and I think you can break out the broom. Westbrook and Beal have been hampered with injuries all series long, but even when healthy they stand no chance against the top-seeded, title-hungry Sixers.
The T-wolves have averaged 135.5 points in their last 2 games but didn't cover either of those. This game all depends on status of Jimmy Butler, if he plays then I'll take Miami, if he's a no go I'll take Minny.
The Grizzlies have one of the best ATS records in the league at 38-21. Denver has won five of their last six games since PG Jamal Murray's season ending ACL injury, but that was against lesser competition. This game will be close and could go either way, have to grab the points.
. Oregon St. hung tough last week against a good Utah team and they were w/o their starting quarterback, running back, and eventually, their backup running back and one of their starting receivers. Yet, the Beavers still managed to hang around and were oh-so-close to being able to pull off the road win.
Now that they've got Jermar Jefferson back in the fold and the fact that Chance Nolan will likely be much better in his second start, I like the Beavers' chances against the Cardinals tonight.
I have a feeling that this will be a great battle against two teams that are fairly evenly-matched on paper and if the Beavers can build off some flashes against the Utes and clean up some of the mistakes, I like them to bounce back at home and get back to .500 on the year. Oregon State is 4-1 ATS Last 5 and I'll follow the trends...give me the 3 points.
Vanderbiltâ€™s offense is not good, ranking 121st in the country, but Vanderbiltâ€™s passing attack is 54th in the country which qualifies as good. Itâ€™s certainly better than their rushing attack which ranks 107th. Ken Seals is a true freshman quarterback who has been getting better as the season and should be able to at least find the end zone a couple of time. SP+ sees this as a 34-16 Missouri victory; I see it more as a 24-14 type victory. Give me the points.
Donâ€™t look now but Golden State has won 2 in a row and covered 3 out of last 4. Both teams recently played Washington and the Dubs best Washington while Nets lost. Brooklyn should win this game but 7 feels like too many here
Both of these teams are playing some ugly basketball and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. TCU did manage to beat Texas Tech recently at home but has dropped three games in a row and two of the losses were by double digits. Oklahoma State is in the virtually the same boat, as they are winless in conference play and most of the losses were by double digits. I think this game is up for grabs so have to take the Frogs +3 in a game that could go either way.
This line just doesn't pass the eye test. Kansas played Texas to a 3 point game, beat Texas Tech and only lost to OU by 24 points. Ok State has played better of late but Kansas' QB Carter Stanley and RB Pooka Williams will do enough scoring to keep this one closer than 17.5.
South Carolina's defense is going to make life difficult for Vandy here today, so while the Gamecocks should win this game 15.5 is a little thick for my taste. I would lean Vandy covering the line, but the best bet here is UNDER 51.5 as South Carolina's defense should limit the offensive production of Vandy and I don't see South Carolina's ho-hum offense having the ability to pull away.
UAB comes into Neyland Stadium with a terrific 6-1 record. However, that might be the product of a weak schedule. I know that the joke in college football is to claim that your opponent â€œainâ€™t played nobody.â€ But, in UABâ€™s case this may actually be somewhat true. Their six wins have been against teams that are a combined 2-35 vs. FBS opponents. The Volunteers will easily be the best team UAB has seen this season to date. I think Tennessee has it rolling right now, and they will be aided by a rowdy homecoming crowd. Give me the Vols in this one, comfortably.
Auburn still has something to play for this season, even if a miracle or two is needed. Auburn has played a brutal schedule and have a couple of tough losses and I think if they didn't have a non-true freshman quarterback, they would be out here wrecking teams this year. They have an elite defense, but theyâ€™re limited on offense against good defenses. Ole Miss doesnâ€™t have a good defense, but itâ€™s mostly okay, which should keep the Tigers from making this game 100 percent gross early. If Texas A&M made life difficult for the Ole Miss offense, you can expect something similar or worse here today. I think itâ€™s relatively close at halftime but Auburn runs away with it in the second half. I like Auburn to win 42-21 and eke out a cover for Tiger bettors.
West Virginia has got their backup quarterback in this game and they only generated 190 yards of total offense last week. I think Lincoln Riley is still pissed he left so many touchdown's on the field last week against Texas. I predict a 45-10 type of score. Lean laying the points with Oklahoma if forced to play it.