The Bruins will look to carry over their momentum from a pair of convincing wins on home ice in Games 3 and 4. The B’s changed to Jeremy Swayman in net for Game 3, and have won two in a row while outscoring the Canes 9-4. Each game has been decided by at least two goals and Carolina may be a bit complacent after taking a 3-2 series lead and they have had their issues with Boston in the past. With the Bruins’ backs to the wall and knowing it could be the end of the line for some of these guys, I predict the Bruins force a Game 7.
An argument could be made that the Pelicans had the 2 best players on the floor. Both Ingram and McCollum topped 30 points and did so on 52.4% from the field. That highlights why the Suns should be favored to win Game 4 even without Devin Booker. Phoenix is simply too deep for the Pelicans. Also the Suns shot an abysmal 15.4% from 3 ing game 3 - I just don't see their luck from 3 being that bad again. Give the better team here over 8th seed Pelicans.
Tech was within inches of beating #10 Baylor in their last game of the season and beat a good ISU team. Tech more dinged up by opt-outs, with OL Charles Cross (a left tackle projected as an NFL first-rounder) and CB Martin Emerson on the sideline, but I still like the +10.5 points here.
The Pats getting back Damien Harris is a boost, but Buffalo ranks two spots ahead of New England in DVOA and are the better offensive team here (even with Harris in the backfield). The Pats are just 3-4 at home this year and the offense might also have hit a wall this month, and the Bills are familiar enough with them to exploit that.
Buffalo should be able to attack a Tampa secondary that lost Mike Edwards to a suspension, Jordan Whitehead to injury and Jamel Dean to a concussion. This Bills team is built to pass and built to stop the pass is a perfect matchup to upset the Bucs. Buffalo can win this game outright so taking the points and sprinkling the +160 ML.
Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford got hurt against Iowa and didn't look right in the subsequent game against Illinois, but he has reemerged with back-to-back games with at least 360 passing yards.
But how successful will PSU and Clifford be against this Big Blue defense this weekend? Michigan has not allowed a passing touchdown since Oct. 9 and has held seven of nine opponents below 200 passing yards. The Wolverines will do whatever it takes to limit Jahan Dotson's impact as a receiver, which will reduce the amount of damage Clifford can do.
It's worth monitoring Blake Corum's status for Michigan, though. The lightning to Hassan Haskins' thunder suffered a foot injury in the first quarter against Indiana, and Michigan's ceiling on offense isn't as high without the team leader in yards from scrimmage.
I expect a defensive war on Saturday, and don't be surprised if a Top 10 Big Ten team suffers a loss for the fifth time in six weeks, but I'm giving the nod to Michigan by a field goal. Good luck picking the side here, but I do think there is value in Under 48.5 points.
In the first game after firing Nick Rolovich and several assistant coaches, Washington State fared better than expected, losing by only two points to BYU. But BYU isn't that great of a team this season, so don't let taht affect your judgement here.
Defensively the Cougars have issues, their front seven are nothing special, as BYU's Tyler Allgeier rushed for 191 yards and two touchdowns. That's going to be a problem against a potent Sun Devils rushing attack.
Thick spread here but I think ASU does just enough.
Can you believe Clemson opened as a double digit favorite here? Florida State is undefeated thus far in October since reinserting Jordan Travis at quarterback. The McKenzie Milton story was awesome back in Week 1, but it just wasn't working out for the 'Noles. Having an actual rushing threat at QB has changed things considerably for them, but will it be enough against this Clemson defense? While I do think the Tigers will win, that offense should not be favored by double digits against anyone right now. I think it's a low scoring game and FSU hangs tough.
Give me UTEP and the 11 points. This will be the first real test for the Miners as all six of their wins have come against sub-.500 opponents, and this is a road game against 4-3 FAU. FAU has Miami transfer N'Kosi Perry at the help, but this UTEP defense will do enough to keep him in check. and do just enough to eke out a cover.
Alabama opened as a -17.5 favorite but was bet all the way down -16 at certain points in the week. The line has settled at Alabama -17 at most shops. I only have Alabama projected as a -11.92 favorite and Collin Wilson’s PRO Projections have the Crimson Tide as only a -13 favorite.
I think there is some value on the Bulldogs at +17 and would play it down to +15. Last week's game at College Station wasn't an aberration, I just don't think Bama' is that dominant this year.
Nebraska comes off playing their best game in a blowout win over Northwestern, where they scored 50+ points. Michigan comes in off an impressive win at Madison and looks to be playing their best ball of the year. But is this the scenario where we see "Good Michigan" in September and October and then ... you know. I just think Nebraska is playing their best ball right now and rises to the occasion. Give me the 3.5 points in what should sets up to be a close game.
We have our first balloon spread of the year in Sunday's matchup between the struggling (and depleted)Houston Texans and the seemingly rejuvenated Buffalo Bills. And while a 17-point line is terrifying, I think laying the points is the right answer here.
The Texans are that bad with Davis Mills behind center and they come into this game short handed at defensive line and at wide receiver. Over the last two weeks, Buffalo won its games by a combined score of 78-21.
That Houston D still hasn't been horrendous, but it helps to have faced the Jaguars and Carolina Panthers. Now, the Texans are on the road (where they surrendered 31 points against the Cleveland Browns in Week 2), and they're dealing with the league's reigning MVP runner-up in Josh Allen. This feels like a game in which Allen and Co. will put it together for a squad that likes to win big. In fact, each of Buffalo's last five regular-season victories have come by 22 or more points. Lay the 17 points.
The Washington Football Team has yet to cover a spread in what's been a disappointing season so far but a trip to Atlanta could be just what the doctor ordered. The lifeless Falcons barely got past the New York Giants last week, and they were hammered by the lowly Philadelphia Eagles in their home opener. Matt Ryan is averaging a measly 2.4 air yards per attempt and hasn't looked like his old self this season. I like Washington's defense here and think Heinicke & Co. get the road win and cover.
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers bounced back magnificently in Week 2 from a Week 1 dud against the Saints, but I think that was more of a function of a bad Detroit Lions team and not a good Green Bay team.
Unfortunately for San Francisco bettors the 49ers are dealing with a slew of injuries and after watching the San Francisco offense pitch-and-lurch its way to a win over the Philadelphia Eagles, there is no way I'm laying over a field goal against the Packers. As bad as Green Bay looked in week 1 their were plenty of positives from last week's game and I like the Packers to win against the short handed 49'ers. Give me the free 3 points.
***Arkansas +5.5 *** Love the Hogs this weekend. Arkansas has looked dominate in all season and are 3-0 ATS. The Aggies were pegged to be a contender this year but lost their starting QB Haynes King in 1st quarter against Colorado and backup QB Zach Calzada didn’t look effective at all against Colorado. Sure the Aggies beat up a bad New Mexico team 35-0 but the Lobos are terrible. So while the Aggies have a stout defense I think their offense is going to be their downfall this season. Arkansas has been the team that has been more potent and less mistake-prone on offense. Aggies on the road in a hostile environment against a confident Hogs team make them ripe for the picking, sprinkle Arkansas ML.
Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has not impressed this season. Not only did he have a rough game against Georgia's oppressive defense, but he didn't throw it much better against South Carolina State, going 14-of-24 for 171 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He did have a pair of short rushing touchdowns in that 49-3 rout of the FCS foe, but Clemson isn't going to come anywhere near its usual level of excellence until he starts moving the ball through the air and I'm not sure he is capable.
The Georgia Tech defense has held each of its first two opponents under 140 passing yards, but those opponents were Northern Illinois and Kennesaw State. Until I see DJ Uiagalelei improve as a passer and see Clemson move the ball through the air, I think Clemson is a fade.
Virginia Tech has not had much of a passing game thus far this season, and West Virginia has been quite difficult to score against in Morgantown as of late, holding its opponent below 300 total yards in each of its last seven home games. The Maryland loss is a bit of concern for West Virginia bettors, but the Terps are a good football team and you have to remember that WVU was -4 in turnover margin. So as long as the Mountaineers avoid the turnovers I think they are the better team.
Buffalo has been a dangerous team in years past but they don't have the offensive firepower that we have seen in recent years. After losing star running back Jaret Patterson and three of last year's top four receivers, though, this year's team doesn't seem anywhere near as upset-proneas demonstrated in the 28-3 loss to Nebraska last week. If Adrian Martinez was able to pick apart this defense, Grayson McCall should be able to do the same. Down year for Buffalo this season and I think the Chantileers do just enough to cover the number.
Tulane damn near came back from a 23-point second-half deficit at Oklahoma and was 1 yard short on last drive or else Tulane could have won that game. The Green Wave has consistently run it well since hiring Willie Fritz prior to the 2016 season. They have averaged at least 217 rushing yards per game in each of the past five years. But this year's squad can also pass for a change, racking up at least 290 yards and three passing touchdowns in each of its first two games. And it's not like Ole Miss is a brick wall on defense.
Ole Miss should win this game, as they have a trio of three of the best receivers in the country and their hurry up offense can light up a scoreboard. I predict this game is a track meet on Saturday and love the over 76 points here.
All indications are the Ducks best defender DE Kayvon Thibodeaux is likely out of this game with injured ankle. Without Thibodeaux (who is a 1st round NFL draft pick type of player), I don't see Oregon being able to disrupt the OSU offense enough to make CJ Stroud feel any fressure.
Minnesota got basically no backfield penetration against Ohio State last week and it wasn't until the second half that redshirt freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud started looking comfortable in the pocket, throwing darts downfield. I think the first game jitters are out of the way and the Buckeyes get their offense in 5th gear today.
It was a surprise to many when Oregon starting quarterback Tyler Shough entered the transfer portal after the 2020 season, and it surprised many more when he chose to go to Texas Tech. But Shough could be exactly what the Red Raiders are looking for. A prototypical 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, Shough completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,559 yards and 13 touchdowns with six interceptions last season at Oregon. Tech has stand out WR Erik Ezukanma back this season and also picked up Kaylon Geiger as a transfer from Troy. As almost every year, there defense of Texas Tech is going to be average at best this year.
Houston has Clayton Tune at QB again and he’s a duel threat guy that ranked fourth in the AAC in passing in 2020. But Houston lost 3 starters to the NFL, first-round edge rusher Payton Turner and seventh-round linebacker Grant Stuard and WR Marquez Stevenson.
Two evenly matched team here but the difference in this game for me is Houston brings back most of their defense and Tech has got a new starters on defense, five of which came out of the transfer portal. Tune is an underrated QB for Houston and should have success against a new-look Red Raiders secondary. If the Cougars’ back five – which returns fully intact – can keep Shough from a hot start, Houston should be able to pick up an important first victory.
#8 Iowas State brings back QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall and TE Charlie Kolar are all back, and so is top WR Xavier Hutchinson. So Northern Iowa is going to have their hands full on defense. UNI played a spring schedule and went 3-4 but question marks on offense for the Panthers as their offense was limited to 21 or fewer points in six of those seven outings. Northern Iowa has been a powerhouse in the FCS in the past, but it’s a shell of its former self and just completed a mediocre spring season a few months ago. The Panthers are going to get POUNDED in this game and should easily cover by 4 TD's, but let's buy the hook here just in case. Pick: Iowa State -28.
Manoah only allowed 1 ER in his last start and has a 2.64 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 13 ER) in his last six starts. The Under is 6-0 in the Tigers’ last six games, 7-1 in the Blue Jays’ last eight. Both teams are averaging just over three runs per game over the last seven days, and rank in the bottom third in average. 9.5 Runs feels like a big number here.
I don't always bet on NFL pre-season but when I do it's on the defending Super Bowl champions. Brady is going to play at least 1-2 series and having a competent starting quarterback is more than Cincinnati can say. Just one drive by Brady could easily result in an easy 7-0 start.
The Bengals used backup QB Brandon Allen last season following Burrow’s injury. He was unimpressive throwing four interceptions and five touchdowns. Cinci doesn't have much outside of Burrow, and despite potentially having the best three-man trio of receivers in the league, it could still result in a struggling offense. Playing TB here just to wet the palette a litte.
Quantrill had a game last Thursday allowing just one run in six innings against the Rays and has a lower ERA over last 3 games. But Wainwright dominated the Tribe earlier this season and while the Cardinals offense is a bit of concern I like St. Louis and Wainwright here in the First 5.
Spenser Watkins might not have a big sample size, but he currently sits with an ERA of 1.74 and has only given up 2 runs in his last 2 starts. This sets up to be a low scoring game and one the O's could possibly steal. Got to take the 2X money here with Baltimore.