mickeyt

Alabama opened as a -17.5 favorite but was bet all the way down -16 at certain points in the week. The line has settled at Alabama -17 at most shops. I only have Alabama projected as a -11.92 favorite and Collin Wilson’s PRO Projections have the Crimson Tide as only a -13 favorite.

I think there is some value on the Bulldogs at +17 and would play it down to +15. Last week's game at College Station wasn't an aberration, I just don't think Bama' is that dominant this year.

Pick: Mississippi State +17

Nebraska comes off playing their best game in a blowout win over Northwestern, where they scored 50+ points. Michigan comes in off an impressive win at Madison and looks to be playing their best ball of the year. But is this the scenario where we see "Good Michigan" in September and October and then ... you know. I just think Nebraska is playing their best ball right now and rises to the occasion. Give me the 3.5 points in what should sets up to be a close game.

We have our first balloon spread of the year in Sunday's matchup between the struggling (and depleted)Houston Texans and the seemingly rejuvenated Buffalo Bills. And while a 17-point line is terrifying, I think laying the points is the right answer here.

The Texans are that bad with Davis Mills behind center and they come into this game short handed at defensive line and at wide receiver. Over the last two weeks, Buffalo won its games by a combined score of 78-21.

That Houston D still hasn't been horrendous, but it helps to have faced the Jaguars and Carolina Panthers. Now, the Texans are on the road (where they surrendered 31 points against the Cleveland Browns in Week 2), and they're dealing with the league's reigning MVP runner-up in Josh Allen. This feels like a game in which Allen and Co. will put it together for a squad that likes to win big. In fact, each of Buffalo's last five regular-season victories have come by 22 or more points. Lay the 17 points.

Score Prediction: Bills 38, Texans 13

The Washington Football Team has yet to cover a spread in what's been a disappointing season so far but a trip to Atlanta could be just what the doctor ordered. The lifeless Falcons barely got past the New York Giants last week, and they were hammered by the lowly Philadelphia Eagles in their home opener. Matt Ryan is averaging a measly 2.4 air yards per attempt and hasn't looked like his old self this season. I like Washington's defense here and think Heinicke & Co. get the road win and cover.

Score Prediction: Washington 24- Atlanta 17

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers bounced back magnificently in Week 2 from a Week 1 dud against the Saints, but I think that was more of a function of a bad Detroit Lions team and not a good Green Bay team.

Unfortunately for San Francisco bettors the 49ers are dealing with a slew of injuries and after watching the San Francisco offense pitch-and-lurch its way to a win over the Philadelphia Eagles, there is no way I'm laying over a field goal against the Packers. As bad as Green Bay looked in week 1 their were plenty of positives from last week's game and I like the Packers to win against the short handed 49'ers. Give me the free 3 points.

***Arkansas +5.5 *** Love the Hogs this weekend. Arkansas has looked dominate in all season and are 3-0 ATS. The Aggies were pegged to be a contender this year but lost their starting QB Haynes King in 1st quarter against Colorado and backup QB Zach Calzada didn’t look effective at all against Colorado. Sure the Aggies beat up a bad New Mexico team 35-0 but the Lobos are terrible. So while the Aggies have a stout defense I think their offense is going to be their downfall this season. Arkansas has been the team that has been more potent and less mistake-prone on offense. Aggies on the road in a hostile environment against a confident Hogs team make them ripe for the picking, sprinkle Arkansas ML.

Score Prediction: Arkansas 27, Texas A&M 24


Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has not impressed this season. Not only did he have a rough game against Georgia's oppressive defense, but he didn't throw it much better against South Carolina State, going 14-of-24 for 171 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He did have a pair of short rushing touchdowns in that 49-3 rout of the FCS foe, but Clemson isn't going to come anywhere near its usual level of excellence until he starts moving the ball through the air and I'm not sure he is capable.

The Georgia Tech defense has held each of its first two opponents under 140 passing yards, but those opponents were Northern Illinois and Kennesaw State. Until I see DJ Uiagalelei improve as a passer and see Clemson move the ball through the air, I think Clemson is a fade.

Virginia Tech has not had much of a passing game thus far this season, and West Virginia has been quite difficult to score against in Morgantown as of late, holding its opponent below 300 total yards in each of its last seven home games. The Maryland loss is a bit of concern for West Virginia bettors, but the Terps are a good football team and you have to remember that WVU was -4 in turnover margin. So as long as the Mountaineers avoid the turnovers I think they are the better team.

Prediction: West Virginia 28, Virginia Tech 23

Buffalo has been a dangerous team in years past but they don't have the offensive firepower that we have seen in recent years. After losing star running back Jaret Patterson and three of last year's top four receivers, though, this year's team doesn't seem anywhere near as upset-proneas demonstrated in the 28-3 loss to Nebraska last week. If Adrian Martinez was able to pick apart this defense, Grayson McCall should be able to do the same. Down year for Buffalo this season and I think the Chantileers do just enough to cover the number.

Prediction: Coastal Carolina 38, Buffalo 20

Tulane damn near came back from a 23-point second-half deficit at Oklahoma and was 1 yard short on last drive or else Tulane could have won that game. The Green Wave has consistently run it well since hiring Willie Fritz prior to the 2016 season. They have averaged at least 217 rushing yards per game in each of the past five years. But this year's squad can also pass for a change, racking up at least 290 yards and three passing touchdowns in each of its first two games. And it's not like Ole Miss is a brick wall on defense.

Ole Miss should win this game, as they have a trio of three of the best receivers in the country and their hurry up offense can light up a scoreboard. I predict this game is a track meet on Saturday and love the over 76 points here.

Prediction: Ole Miss 54, Tulane 42

All indications are the Ducks best defender DE Kayvon Thibodeaux is likely out of this game with injured ankle. Without Thibodeaux (who is a 1st round NFL draft pick type of player), I don't see Oregon being able to disrupt the OSU offense enough to make CJ Stroud feel any fressure.

Minnesota got basically no backfield penetration against Ohio State last week and it wasn't until the second half that redshirt freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud started looking comfortable in the pocket, throwing darts downfield. I think the first game jitters are out of the way and the Buckeyes get their offense in 5th gear today.

It was a surprise to many when Oregon starting quarterback Tyler Shough entered the transfer portal after the 2020 season, and it surprised many more when he chose to go to Texas Tech. But Shough could be exactly what the Red Raiders are looking for.  A prototypical 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, Shough completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,559 yards and 13 touchdowns with six interceptions last season at Oregon. Tech has stand out WR Erik Ezukanma back this season and also picked up Kaylon Geiger as a transfer from Troy. As almost every year, there defense of Texas Tech is going to be average at best this year.

Houston has Clayton Tune at QB again and he’s a duel threat guy that ranked fourth in the AAC in passing in 2020. But Houston lost 3 starters to the NFL, first-round edge rusher Payton Turner and seventh-round linebacker Grant Stuard and WR Marquez Stevenson.

Two evenly matched team here but the difference in this game for me is Houston brings back most of their defense and Tech has got a new starters on defense, five of which came out of the transfer portal. Tune is an underrated QB for Houston and should have success against a new-look Red Raiders secondary. If the Cougars’ back five – which returns fully intact – can keep Shough from a hot start, Houston should be able to pick up an important first victory.

#8 Iowas State brings back QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall and TE Charlie Kolar are all back, and so is top WR Xavier Hutchinson. So Northern Iowa is going to have their hands full on defense. UNI played a spring schedule and went 3-4 but question marks on offense for the Panthers as their offense was limited to 21 or fewer points in six of those seven outings. Northern Iowa has been a powerhouse in the FCS in the past, but it’s a shell of its former self and just completed a mediocre spring season a few months ago. The Panthers are going to get POUNDED in this game and should easily cover by 4 TD's, but let's buy the hook here just in case. Pick: Iowa State -28.

Manoah only allowed 1 ER in his last start and has a 2.64 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 13 ER) in his last six starts. The Under is 6-0 in the Tigers’ last six games, 7-1 in the Blue Jays’ last eight. Both teams are averaging just over three runs per game over the last seven days, and rank in the bottom third in average. 9.5 Runs feels like a big number here.

Jesus Luzardo is on the rubber for the Marlins. He is 4-5 with a 7.52. Terrible number, even on the RL but not betting against Charlie Morton.

I don't always bet on NFL pre-season but when I do it's on the defending Super Bowl champions. Brady is going to play at least 1-2 series and having a competent starting quarterback is more than Cincinnati can say. Just one drive by Brady could easily result in an easy 7-0 start.

The Bengals used backup QB Brandon Allen last season following Burrow’s injury. He was unimpressive throwing four interceptions and five touchdowns. Cinci doesn't have much outside of Burrow, and despite potentially having the best three-man trio of receivers in the league, it could still result in a struggling offense. Playing TB here just to wet the palette a litte.

PHILLY First 5 Innings - Great pitching matchup, Gibson should be able to keep Mets in check. Slight lean Philly first half, Phillies bullpen is terrible.

Quantrill had a game last Thursday allowing just one run in six innings against the Rays and has a lower ERA over last 3 games. But Wainwright dominated the Tribe earlier this season and while the Cardinals offense is a bit of concern I like St. Louis and Wainwright here in the First 5.

Watkins was impressive last time out for the O’s and  Alcantara might have a little rust after being away from the team for nearly two weeks (out for bereavement).

Spenser Watkins might not have a big sample size, but he currently sits with an ERA of 1.74 and has only given up 2 runs in his last 2 starts. This sets up to be a low scoring game and one the O's could possibly steal. Got to take the 2X money here with Baltimore.

Bassitt is a sleeper AL Cy Young contender and the Athletics are 14-5 in games Bassitt starts while Morgan is a rookie still figuring out the big leagues.

Seattle has a winning record in the division and vs. left-handed starters and has the much better bullpen - Mariners pen is second in WAR and the Angels rank 22nd in WAR and are 19-8 in one-run games this season.

Cease has pitched much better at home this season, and the White Sox have the second-best home record in the majors. Cease is 4-0 at home this season with a 1.81 home ERA (6.27 road ERA). Also Chicago has a the much better pen. I’ll take my chances with Chicago +115.

Stout pitching is better than stout hitting. Slight lean on the Under as the Under has cashed in 11 of the past 14 All-Star Games. But being at Coor's gives me a little pause after seeing the fall flying at the home run derby last night. I'lm still backing the pitching here tonight.

Gerrit Cole has been affected more by the “sticky stuff” ban than any other pitcher. He was struggling early in the season and with the rosin ban his wheels have completely fallen off. Over the last two games, Cole has gone 8.1 innings total giving up ten runs. Look for the Astros to tee off on their old teammate today.

Joe Musgrove is having some major struggles right now and in each of the last two starts he has struggled. Got to like the big plus odds in this one.

JT Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates - he is 4-8 with a 4.09 ERA. New York has their ace Taijuan Walker on the bump and he is 7-3 this season with an impressive 2.44 ERA. Mets are the obvious choice here but not at -200 odds, so looking at this Under 7.5 as this one should be a defensive game.

Velasquez on the hill for Phillies today and has registered a 6.21 ERA over his last seven starts. Garrett Richards is the projected starting pitcher for the Boston and is 4-5 with a 4.88 ERA. Boston pretty good value here today at only -125 and something small on the OVER 11 - if the trends hold we should see plenty of offense in this matchup.

Expecting Booker to reproduce his Game 1 performance would be bullish, but he’ll still be the most dynamic player on the court. LA has only been an underdog by four points or more four times this season and finished 0-4 outright and 1-3 ATS. The Clippers are getting worn down, and the Suns should feel comfortable at home once more with Paul likely back for Game 3. Phoenix is probably the popular pick here but I think it's the right side.

The Cards should be heavy favs here. Braxton Garrett is going to make his third major league appearance on the bump for the Marlins. In seven innings so far this year, Garrett has given up eight runs and five runs. The Cardinals played on Sunday night baseball, but it’s a short flight home and Adam Wainwright has been nails at home where he owns a 2.62 ERA. St. Louis RL -1.5 (+110)