mickey619

Forget Oklahoma, TCU has been the bigger problem for Texas with six wins in the last seven years. But this Horned Frog D doesn’t have its normal stuff. SMU ran wild in a win last week, Cal threw too well in the previous game, and Texas is about to do both. Steve Sarkisian appears to have everything rolling at the right time.

Texas 40, TCU 30

I think I'm going to pick against my gut here. I'm going to take Georgia in a game that feels like Clemson should win (it's not a home game, but it practically is). Georgia has had this recruiting machine for awhile now and they haven't been able to do much with it. They've made the playoff once in seven years.

This game should be about defense. Both teams were phenomenal against the run last year. Georgia had the best run defense in the nation, while Clemson was top-10. I think the first game of the post-Trevor Lawrence era is a solid performance for D.J. Uiagalelei, but it's not enough against a next level Bulldogs defense. #GoDawgs

Obviously pre-season is a crap shoot without key players, but the Colts starters on defense and the offensive line which will see plenty of snaps today. The Panthers remain a team in transition and will be holding relatively open auditions at a lot of key positions today. Let's dip a toe in the pool today, Colts -3.

Tom Hatch is a rookie and in his last abbreviated start against the Rays he didn’t allow a run over 2 1/3 innings, so a bit of a question mark around rookie Hatch. Nick Pivetta is on the hill for Boston and in his last outing against Toronto he got the win but gave up a whopping 11 hits. Pivetta is like a box of chocolates and you never know what you’re going to get. But I’m leaning Boston here as more of a fade of rookie Hatch on the hill for Toronto. The over 10.5 is also worth a look as we’ve got two top 5 offenses and suspect pitching today, so could see some fireworks.

Back on 4/28 Glasnow dominated this A’s lineup and pitched 7 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts against them back on 4/28. I'm betting on more of the same today.

The Rockies Chi Chi Gonzalez has allowed over a hit per inning with only 14 strikeouts in 24.2 innings pitched this season, so the Cardinals should have some chances to get the bats going.

Pick: St. Louis RL -1.5 (-105)

The Kings are on a nine-game snide while the Mavericks have lost four of their past six games and are coming off a tough loss to the Knicks. My first reaction to this line was that it looked heavy so not in love with it but have to play Dallas even if it's more of a fade of a bad Sacramento team.

Miami 103-98.

Fried battled command issues during the early portion of his Opening Day start in Philadelphia, but found a groove near the end of his five-inning effort. Fedde gets the nod out of the bullpen, as the Nationals' rotation is short two starters. Last season, Fedde went 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in eight starts in place of an injured Stephen Strasburg. Atlanta let yesterday's game slip away but I like them here on the RL behind Max Fried. Braves -1.5 (+110)

Michigan is without senior F Isaiah Livers, who suffered a season-ending stress fracture in his foot in UM’s Big Ten Tournament opener. Livers started all 23 games he played this season, averaging 13.1 PPG and 6.0 RPG, while hitting a team-best 50 3-pointers (shooting 43.1% behind the arc).

FSU defeated 13th-seeded UNC Greensboro 64-54 in the first round but came up a “hook” short as a 10-point favorite. The Seminoles had no problem covering as 1-point faves in their next game, cruising past No. 5 seed Colorado 71-53.

The Big Ten, which had nine teams make the tourney, has been a total flop as Michigan is the only team remaining. The ACC certainly is looking like the better conference, and FSU losing to Georgia Tech in the ACC title game might be the best thing that could have happened to the Noles'.

Score Prediction: Florida State 72 - Michigan 70

Gonzaga trampled its first two NCAA Tournament opponents — 16-seed Norfolk State and 8-seed Oklahoma, by an average score of 92.5-63 but is 1-1 ATS in those games and only covered by a half-point against the Sooners.

Creighton bounced back from a 25-point blowout by Georgetown in the Big East Tournament championship and eking past 12-seed UC Santa Barbara 63-62 to demolish 13-seed Ohio 72-58 as 5.5-point favorites.

It’s hard to poke holes in an undefeated team’s resume but Gonzaga is just laying too many points and the Bulldogs are only 3-3 ATS in their previous six games. In Gonzaga’s win over Oklahoma last round, the Bulldogs actually shot worse from the field but attempted 14 more free throws and Creighton is 48th in defensive FTA/FG rate. I like this Creighton team and they are athletic, long and have the offense to scare Gonzaga.

Score: Gonzaga 85 - Creighton 78

Pac-12 has proven themselves in the tournament. Oregon State keeps it close but Loyola advances in a 72-66 type of game. Slightest of leans with the +7 points here.

Both teams have turned the corner and looked like different teams in the 2nd half of the season. Both are bubble teams and it’s going to come down to the ACC Tournament and whether or not either of these two teams can get hot enough and play well enough to somehow make it to the dance. This is going to be a fun game to watch and will probably come down to the last few minutes. But I'm on UNC here as they have the edge in rebounding and overall defense.

Really surprised to see Iowa as a 2 point dog here The Hawkeyes will be chomping at the bit after having to think about the Indiana loss for eight days. Illinois is legit but I'll ride with the Hawkeyes #2 ranked offense and big Luke Garza.

The Lakers should be able to pick up the road win against Billy Donovan’s Bulls, but it’s going to be a close shave and 9 points feels a bit high here today...especially with A.D. and LeBron listed as questionable on the official injury report.

The Pels are worth playing on the road, as they’re going to be angry after getting dusted in a pair of games at Utah on Tuesday and Thursday. Look for them to come out and take advantage of the beleaguered Timberwolves. Public money coming in on New Orleans, lined opened at -6.5 and now -8 at most books. I'll follow.

UNDER 28 points in the 1st half. Going to be cold and windy but the hourly forecast looks like 3-4pm going to be 15-20 gusts and then it calms down a bit around 5. Plus Cleveland is going to go to the ground here early and often for clock control. I It's all a crap shoot boys, I'm just looking for a fraction of an edge. BOL!

Virginia took the season’s first matchup with Notre Dame, claiming a 66-57 victory as a 7-point road favorite Dec. 30. Notre Dame enters on a 3-game skid and has lost 5 of its last 6 contests. The most recent setback was a 77-63 defeat at No. 20 Virginia Tech Sunday as the Irish failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. Big spread here tonight considering Virginia doesn't score a lot of points but Notre Dame just isn't a deep team and are going the wrong direction right now. I'll lay the points with the hotter Cavs team here. Virginia wins 68-56.

Texas is one of the top teams in DI and has only lost one game all season which came against Villanova. West Virginia is only 2-2 in their last four games and they are going to have trouble scoring enough points to keep this one close. Texas is the easy choice here but I'll take the free bucket with the better team.

Tulane has scored more than 70 points in just two of eight games this season. The Green Wave’s 66.0 points per game rank 295th in NCAA-I hoops. The struggling Green Wave offense will be up against a Houston defense ranked third in the nation, allowing just 57.0 PPG. Thick spread here today but Houston should have this game covered by half time.

I've liked Colorado since the line opened, this line should have been under 7 to start. Colorado has an impressive resume coming into this game (albeit a short one), and this could be Brenden Rice's coming out party against a Horns defense that allows 30 PPG. I've got Colorado +10 and chipping the ML. Texas 24 - Colorado 34. GO BUFFS!

FYI - Rumor mill in Austin is that several Texas players got hit with positive COVID tests and the Horns now potentially going to be w/o even more starters for this game. Not sure which players yet. This line has dropped from Colorado +10.5 to now +7, could go below 7 before kick depending... stay tuned.

OVER!!

We should see some points here. The Terps have hit 79 or more points in five of seven games with a push in their lone conference tilt. This won’t be an up-tempo game with a total in the 150’s, but a total of 140 isn’t unreasonable in the least.

Go under 140.5

The Under is the play here. Wisconsin has one of the stingiest defenses in the country, allowing 57.5 PPG to rank 15th. The Badgers rank 14th in opponents’ field-goal percentage at 36.2%. Don’t be surprised if the combined score is Under 50 at halftime.

The Chiefs are 2-3 ATS as double-digit favorites this season, and they will have to adjust if running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire misses time. Atlanta ranks 31st in the NFL in pass defense at 287.7 points per game. Patrick Mahomes II continues his MVP-caliber season and Chiefs win but I think it's closer than Vegas is predicting.

Score: Kansas City 30- Atlanta 24

The Wildcats are coming off an impressive 79-65 win over then-No. 4 Michigan State and Northwestern ranks 13th in the country with 90.4 PPG, and ranks fifth with a 43.5% behind the 3-point line. Ken Pom has Northwestern rated 56th and Indiana 17th, with a predicted score of 72-65. But I think if the Wildcats play like they did Sunday they could surprise here as a 8.5 underdog.

The Broncos are hurting in the secondary. Theyll start a rookie and a veteran journeyman at their corner spots and Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley should be able to feast. I think the Bills can run the ball on this defense and on the other side, Buffalos veteran safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer should pose a real challenge for Lock. Bills win turnover battle and take care of business, it's the easy pick here but let's not overthink it.

The Panthers have lost six games by a touchdown or less, so this is a competitive football team. Unfortunately for Matt Rhule’s team, the Packers are rolling, and there’s little reason to believe Carolina has the horses on defense to slow Aaron Rodgers and the top-scoring offense. Like so many previous weeks, the Panthers will score, but not nearly enough. Green Bay 34- Carolina 23