BYU quarterback Jaren Hall suffered an injury late in the fourth quarter of the Week 3 win over Arizona State and subsequently missed this past week's matchup with South Florida. But with Baylor Romney playing in his stead, the Cougars had their best offensive output of the season.
I'm not ready to declare that BYU is better with Romney at quarterback, as it was just one game against South Florida, after all. But I do believe that regardless of who gets the start Friday night, the Cougars will be more than capable of taking advantage of a Utah State defense allowing more than 460 total yards per game.
The Aggies were fantastic on offense in wins over North Dakota and Air Force, but not so much against Boise State and Washington State, averaging 14.5 points in those latter two games. If Boise State can beat the Aggies by 24 points, then I think BYU can also win here by double digits. Utah State's defense is really bad and BYU will run and throw all over them.
Philly deserves to be favored here with their ace Aaron Nola on the hill but -168 feels inflated. Touki Toussaint was called up by the Braves recently and made his first start of the season. He was looking very sharp against San Diego, just 1 run allowed over 6+ innings. That game was at home but he might be playable on the road too. Phillies Aaron Nola continues to disappoint and gave up 4ER to the Yankees in his last start. I'll take a flyer on ATL getting +150 on my money.
The shorthanded Lakers blew out the Nets Saturday 126-101 as 11.5-point underdogs, and they have covered each of the past three. So that's why this spread is lower than expected and feels like a good time to get on the Knicks here. Knicks just beat Raptors and Grizzlies and have covered their last 5 games. Lakers have been resilient without AD and Lebron but hard to bet on that success continuing.
All eyes will be on Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson, who ended the regular season with 1,072 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns, while averaging 7.6 yards per carry. He made headlines when he rumbled for 409 yards and 8 touchdowns against Kent State. But Pattershon may not be 100% for this game, but that's OK as Buffalo isn’t a one trick pony. Leipold didn’t rule out the possibility of Patterson being somewhat limited today. That’s not the end of the world as RB Kevin Marks can get the job done too behind that big Bulls front 5.
Marshall had been rolling along and was ranked in the Top 25 with seven wins and five covers through the first seven games. But the Thundering Herd limped to the finish line, getting shutout in a 20-0 home loss to a below average Rice Owls team, which is just inexcusable.
As we've seen in these bowl games, you never know which team is going to show up but I like Buffalo to win by double digits here. Score: Buffalo 31- Marshall 20
Carolina enters the matchup likely without two of its’ best offensive weapons in DJ Moore (COVID list) and Christian McCaffrey (Thigh). However, the defense has really played exceptionally well lately and I see that continuing against an inconsistent Denver offense. I've got no faith in Drew Lock...this one is tough, but I still like the Panthers off the bye, even without McCaffrey and Moore.
The Packers have won four games by at least 14 points and should be able to get there again today with the Jags Minshew out with a broken thumb. Jaguars will have a rookie under cneter in QB Jake Luton, a sixth-round pick of the 2020 NFL Draft out of Oregon State. Last week he didn't look terrible completing 26 of 38 passes for 304 yards, but Green Bay front 5 a helluva lot better than Houston's and should trouble the young QB today. Hate double digit NFL spreads but going Packers here.
West Virginia coming off of a tough road loss at Texas Tech but the Raiders are better than advertised. Jarrett Doege has looked great this season at QB for the Mountaineers but his receivers didn't help him much last week with more than a half dozen dropped passes. KSU has played well this year but have been inefficient passing the ball w/o Skylar Thompson at the helm. And the Mountaineers are a different team at home. WVU -5 and OVER 45.5
Georgia State should run the ball well enough to keep the score close, but Coastal Carolina has been electric on offense this year so even with the top rushing defense in the conference, it's difficult to imagine Georgia State shutting down the Chanticleers for 4 quarters.
I like Coastal and West Virginia -4 against K. State in the noon games.
Michael Thomas being out really hurt the Saints last week, so I question Saints offense after last week's performance. Aaron Rodgers looked as sharp as ever last week. Even if the Packers dont have Davante Adams, I'll take a stab with Packers and the points.
I was surprised to see this line open at double digits. Bears are undefeated and while they haven't been winning by big numbers they are still undefeated. Baylor has a veteran offensive line, veteran QB in Charlie Brewer and has the horses to hang with Oklahoma. I like OU to get the win but this game but predict it will be close for 4 quarters.
*****LOCK OF THE DAY***** Mortgage the house and put it on Buffalo. I thought they were underrated all season long, and they've started to prove me right recently. They have a quasi elite defense, and they should be able to completely shut down the Eastern Michigan offense in this one. They just dominated a central Michigan team that in turn dominated Eastern Michigan a few weeks ago. Buffalo is the right side tomorrow and I'm getting heavy on this play.
UNDER 71 - I predict UCF will put up plenty of offense, but I like the unders in this one as I expect that the Knights' defense will be able to stymie a shaky Houston offense. With Tune under center, Houston has put "points on the board" on 40% of its possessions while they have turned the ball over on 17.5% of their opportunities. He was sacked seven times by SMU and 10 times overall this year which doesn't bode well against this tough UCF front five. Further, the Knights average 2.38 sacks to go along with nine tackles for losses, which ranks third in the country. This sets up for a long day for the Cougars offense.
Memphis was able to slip past Ole Miss in week 1, its not a surprise that the Tigers are undefeated. Iowa State put up 72 points on this Louisiana-Monroe defense and I suspect Memphis will run wild as well. ULM has also shown it can score against top opposition with 44 points put up against Florida State but I you can't trust that leaky defense for ULM. This line opened at -13.5 and the sharp money coming in on Memphis and I'll follow.
***DOG OF THE DAY*** Not even the confines of Minute Maid Park can save the Astros with Urquidy starting on the mound. I don't trust this guy at all today and the Angels pose some legitimate offensive concerns. I like Suarez to outlast Urquidy here in a solid upset with a nice payday.
***KC +133*** Sparkman has been pretty erratic over his last three starts but is still better than Richard. I’m not thrilled with either pitche but I like Sparkman a little better at this point and like the +133 odds.
Gerrit Cole does not have great numbers this year, but he is off of his worst home start of the year and will be looking to bounce back, plus we note that he is 9-3 with a 2.50 ERA in his career against the Cubs. The Astros are 16-5 in Cole’s last 21 home starts so the Stro's are the play here today but at -180 this game is unbettable.
DOG OF THE DAY - ORIOLES +160 The Rockies have struggled at home and what is really depressing for the Rockies is the way Freeland has pitched on the season. His pitching will create problems for the Rockies in this game, even against the horrible Orioles offense that finds their stroke and breaks their losing streak in this game. Baltimore Orioles win 6-5
Through 50 games, New York ranks 6th in OPS and 6th in runs scored. For the season, Kansas City ranks 18th in OPS and 18th in runs scored. Look for both offenses to score plenty on Saturday. New York Yankees win in high scoring over game 7-5.
Milwaukee dominated Toronto in three of their four head-to-head duels in the regular season. The Bucks have more quality options at the offensive end and the Bucks’ second unit seems more dangerous than the Raptors’ second unit. And the Bucks are 33-8 at home this year.
Honestly I'm a little surprised this spread isn't around 16-18 points. I jumped on Nuggets at -11. The Knicks lose by an average spread of almost 16 points and have lost by an average of over 17 point in their last 5 games. . Granted the Nuggets aren't as good on the road as they are at home but the Knicks have a terrible home record. Only thing that might give me a tad of pause is that the Nuggets are on the end of back to back games. Bottom line is the Knicks don't have any numbers I like, especially against a far superior team like the Nuggets.
Either it's the coaching or just 4 freshman on the floor but Duke looks out of sorts at times. I like Duke to win 75-70. It's going to be closer than the number
