jtgarcia

The Trojans have three wins by at least 23 points and three losses by at least 14 points, and they have oscillated between those results.

Despite a coaching change and some quarterback fluidity USC's offense has been pretty consistent, racking up from 408 to 494 total yards and scoring at least 26 points in each contest. It's the defense that has been all over the map, and it's the defense that will let them down in this rivalry game.

I wouldn't be surprised if ND gets the W here, but also wouldn't be surprised if USC wins, so this is a game I want the points.

Prediction: Notre Dame 35, USC 31

Louisiana has lived on the edge a bit this year with three victories coming by eight points or less. Appalachian State lost by two against Miami and beat Marshall by a point but dominated in its three other victories. The Ragin' Cajuns aren't playing with the same level of efficiency on offense that they had last season, which has to change in order to win against Appalachian State. An X-factor to watch: Louisiana starting kicker Kenneth Almendares is out for the year, and backup Nate Snyder missed two field goals and an extra point in the win over South Alabama.

Bottomline, App State is the more well rounded team and I think they get the W and cover.

Prediction: Appalachian State 31, Louisiana 24

Clemson's offense is a growing concern, in two games against FBS foes (Georgia and Georgia Tech), the Tigers have only scored two touchdowns and have only had two gains of more than 17 yards. The power outage on offense is alarming but luckily Clemson still has a nasty defense. The only touchdown scored against the Tigers thus far this season was a pick-six and I don't think NC State will have the horsepower to move the ball. Remember in week 2 that NC State lost to Mississippi State—a team that has allowed 34 points to Louisiana Tech and 31 points to Memphis—the Wolfpack were held to 10 points while managing just 32 yards on 25 carries.

While I'm not anticipating a shutout, Clemson's defense will pave the way for another low-scoring victory. I love the UNDER 47.5 total here.

Prediction: Clemson 27, NC State 13

Houston RL. Simple.

Morehead State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Belmont is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning record. I get Belmont being favored in the championship game as the top-seed, but the weight of this line is showing absolutely zero respect to Morehead State, who has been a cover machine all year long.

Tennessee isn’t known for being a high-percentage 3 point shooting team, but they should find more success playing a Mississippi State defense allowing an average 39.3 percent shooting from beyond the arc on the road. This Vols team is averaging 77.2 PPG at home but they haven't looked really dominate over the past 2 weeks with losses (and failed covers) to Missouri and Florida in their last 2 games. Tennessee wins but 9.5 feels like too many here.

This the easiest pick of the day. They just played last night SIU won by 21 and North Dakota looked atrocious. Lay the 7

Michigan basketball wasn't supposed to play Toledo this season. The Wolverines were scheduled to host NC State tonight as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. But that game obviously postponed because of the Wolfpack's COVID-19-related issues.

Tonights game came together under 24 hours passing between the official postponement of the North Carolina State game and that will present a unique challenge to the coaching staffs, who usually have more time to prepare and watch film.

The Rockets have the MAC's highest offensive efficiency rating, according to KenPom.com, and their backcourt is a major reason why. Three of Toledo's four leading scorers are guards, and all three players average double-digit points. Senior Marreon Jackson averages a team-best 16.0 points and 5.6 assists and is the catalyst for Toledo's attack.

Toledo has the talent and offense to give Michigan headaches tonight. Not calling for the upset but do like the boat load of points with a talented Toledo team here.

This game is all about the #3 Defense. Sprinkle the ML. Baker going to shave his head after this game.

Minnesota has a top-15 offense and have scored between 35-40 in their last 4. Nebraska has a so-so defense (No. 52 SP+) and assuming Minnesota can keep up that pace of putting up points, I’d only need two touchdowns from the Huskers to hit the over. I think the Nebraska defense is going to be one of if not the most difficult matchup for Minnesota to date but I really think the Huskers show up on offense in this one.

You could make a case for either side here tonight, Heaney has thrown just five innings this season while Milone has made just two starts. However, the difference for me if that the Angels are playing much better baseball than the Mariners right now, even with Seattle’s win on Friday. The -125 for Angels here isn’t bad given the recent form of both teams.

+170 to fade Darvish? Give me Trevor Richards and the Fins.

San Francisco is strong and they are perfect at home, until tonight. Gonzaga is an offensive monster and the defense has definitely strengthened and is now only allowing 55 points in their last six games. I'll be taking the Bulldogs but I'll be honest, this one makes me a little nervous.

Better picks on the board today but if you want to put something down on this I'd go with UC Irvine. They have a tough defense and they aren't a pushover on the road and will definitely make the Titans work for every point they are able to put up. Take the chalk.

The Wildcats’ offensive outburst at Louisville seems to have some convinced that this could be an exciting display of decent scoring. However, that will be far from what you watch for three and a half hours. Kentucky’s strong suit is defense. A majority of their best players are on the defensive side of the football and even their head coach has a defensive background.

Kentucky’s offense shouldn’t scare the Nittany Lions, either, which will assert more significance on the defense’s performance. Expect a heavy dose of Snell but not enough big plays to get the win but enough to keep this game close.

Score Prediction: Penn State 24, Kentucky 20

FYI...ESPN's Chris Fallica said he likes both favorites in the BCS Championship. CLEMSON -11.5 against Notre Dame and ALABAMA -14 over OU. Thoughts?

NORTHWESTERN ***MAX BET*** I'm really surprised this line is so low....I mean this looks like the bet of the day in my opinion. Northwestern has been competitive this year, lost to Michigan by only 3 and beat Michigan State last week, and this Nebraska team is a hot mess. The Nebraska Cornhuskers continue to look like a team that has no idea what it's doing, as they've given up 33 or more points in four of their five games, and despite the offense picking up recently, they're being outscored by 25.6 points in their last three games. Until Nebraska can put together a complete game, I'm not sure how you can back this club. There's also even more confidence in Northwestern after beating Michigan State as big underdogs and actually putting together a passing attack for once. I' still confused by this line only being Northwester -3 here at home today....don't look a gift horse in the mouth, let's lay the wood to Northwestern here today.

Baylor has to be thrilled with the bounce back they’ve had this season after going just 1-11 last season and looks like their offense is back on track as they come into this game with a scoring offense that ranks 37th in College Football. I wasn't sure if Matt Rhule was the right hire for Baylor after Art Briles, but he is slowly proving me wrong. Texas has continued to impress after falling to Maryland to start the season as the Longhorns have now racked up quality wins agianst USC, TCU, and Oklahoma. Baylor has the offense to put a few points up on the board, however, their defense has really struggled this season and as they lost by 33 points to the Sooners on the road just a couple of weeks ago, I think Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns will do enough at home to cover this spread and this one should be a high scoring game...both teams have big play making ability and both have weak secondaries. My Pick: OVER 58

Old Dominion has put up some nice offensive performances and has been competitive, but are just getting drilled on the defensive end. On the other side, Marshall isn't that great on either side of the ball. This will be a tough game to watch but there is betting value here with Old Dominion. I like ODU to stick around and cover here....maybe even hit the ML

The Dallas Cowboys have serious questions on the offensive side of the ball, and I don't like this team on the road because of it. It also takes more than running the ball over against a great Panther defense. The Carolina Panthers are loaded offensively and are sure to put Cowboys defenders in tough situations where they have to cover shifty guys in the open field. If this wasn't "America's Team" this Vegas line would be -7 or higher. Betting value is definitely with Carolina here today.

The Packers simply have an edge in pretty much every department offensively, and the defense can’t be as bad as it was last season. I need Chicago to prove me wrong before I can install any faith in the Bears, so I’ll lay the points and bet that Aaron Rogers does work today.

***TEXAS -22.5 *** Central Arkansas scored 27 on Tulsa, granted seven of that figure came on a defensive touchdown. Still, Tulsa also recovered a UCA fumble in its own end zone. So, if the Texas offense can't move the ball on Tulsa on the ground and through the air, I'm not sure what to say. Texas should have superior personnel on defense, particularly up front, but I'd expect the Golden Hurricane to attempt to attack and isolate Longhorn cornerback Kobe Boyce who is expected to make the start. This should not be a contest. If it is, it's a bad sign for Texas. A very bad sign.

Here to tell you this UTEP team is god awful. UNLV will have this one covered by half.

Fiers and Leake = UNDER 8

New York has sputtered offensively of late but facing Zimmermann, who has struggled this season, might help their cause....but I said the same thing about Wednesday’s game against Lopez, who hadn’t won in nine starts, and he shut them down. Severino has the edge on paper, but at +320 on your money you have to put $100 on Detroit don't you? Give me the crazy plus money.

From Ninersnation.com ....picks from across social media. Most have Colts winning....

SB Nation: 3 out of 9 pick 49ers
ESPN: 2 out of 10 pick 49ers
CBS Sports: 1 out of 8 pick 49ers
USA Today: 1 out of 5 pick 49ers
Elliott Harrison, NFL.com: 49ers 13, Colts 10
Greg Cote, Miami Herald: Colts 18, 49ers 15
Dennis Manoloff, The Plain Dealer: Colts 23, 49ers 16
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Colts 23, 49ers 20
Pro Football Talk: MDS Colts 24-20

The Astros have lost four of Verlander's last seven starts, but it has little to do with Verlander and more to do with a banged up Astros offense that isn't producing. The Astros are as healthy as they've been in a while, and Verlander is still a pitcher who is allowing a .206 batting average on the season and has given up two or less runs in six of his last nine starts. Overall, this is a rather cheap price for one of the top pitchers in baseball. Marginal play, but I think Houston -1.5 is the play....I predict Stro's win 4-2

***BALTIMORE +247*** Clevinger has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 games and Ramirez has been pitching better than his 5.40 indicates. The betting value is with Baltimore and the big plus money in this game.

OVER 11 - This game will be a shootout. Despaigne has an ERA of 5.31 and Texas starter Hutchinson has an ERA of 6.07 and the Rangers bullpen has been pitiful lately. I think this is a 8 to 6 type of game today.

The Pirates have been hanging in the playoff race and they have played well at home of late, but this is a bad spot for them as they are playing their first game at home after a long nine-game road trip. Lester is due for a solid game and he should be able to break a string of bad starts and take down the Pirates in this one. Prediction: Chicago -115