I think we see some offensive fireworks in this one. Ole Miss enters fresh off a 52-51 win over Arkansas, which was merely its third-highest point total this season. Meanwhile, Tennessee won its last two games against Missouri and South Carolina by a combined score of 107-44. These two offenses have thrown one interception combined this season, and save for Tennessee's game against overmatched Tennessee Tech, neither secondary has been that opportunistic.
The Ole Miss defense has stifled dual-threat quarterbacks Malik Cunningham and Michael Pratt earlier this season, but the Rebels defense got destroyed by KJ Jefferson to the tune of three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns. Hooker has been impressively efficient, but he has not yet been asked to throw the ball more than 25 times in a game. That will most likely need to change to keep pace on the scoreboard in this one. I like Corral and the Rebels to win a shootout so laying the -2.5 and playing the OVER 82.5.
The Tigers were down 21-10 early in the third quarter against Penn State, trailed Georgia State 24-12 at halftime, had to rally from a 13-0 deficit against LSU and never felt like a threat in their 34-10 loss to Georgia. The rushing attack that destroyed Akron and Alabama State through the first two weeks hasn't been there for the past month.
After the Razorbacks' 676-yard, 51-point performance against Ole Miss, there's little question they have the offense to pull away from Auburn if it sleepwalks through another first half.
KJ Jefferson is the real deal Holyfield - he threw for 366 yards and three touchdowns against Georgia Southern and carried the Arkansas offense to victory over Texas A&M. He accounted for six touchdowns against the Rebels and has come a long way since being ranked by Sports Illustrated as the 12th-best starting SEC quarterback in the preseason.
Despite what it showed against Ole Miss, Arkansas has the better defense in this game, as well as the more proficient quarterback. That said, life is like a Bo(Ni)x of chocolates. You never know which Auburn QB you're gonna get...I don't love this line (or this game) but Arkansas to me has been more consistent and is my pick here. Give me the Hogs (slight lean).
Following the marquee road win over Notre Dame, the No. 1 topic this week in college football is Cincinnati's case for inclusion in the College Football Playoff. The Bearcats are flying higher than ever before, and with them playing at home against a Temple squad that has already lost by 25 to Boston College and by 47 to Rutgers this season, a four-touchdown spread doesn't feel like anywhere near enough.
Missouri's defense completely shut down Kentucky last season, holding the Wildcats to 145 yards of total offense. But the Tigers were otherwise nothing special on defense in 2020 and had quite a bit of trouble this past weekend, allowing 475 total yards in a 34-24 win over Central Michigan. Penn State transfer Will Levis threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns in a Week 1 win over Louisiana-Monroe. I expect the Wildcats defense will hold Missouri below 21 points for a fourth consecutive year and get the cover here.
The big question for any team facingMississippi State is: Can you defend the pass? NC State was hit or miss in that department last season, but with most of those defensive backs returning for another season, the Wolfpack secondary was relentless against South Florida in a Week 1 shutout. Granted, facing South Florida's passing game as a warm-up for facing Mike Leach is like swinging at a few slow-pitch softballs before stepping into the batter's box against Aroldis Chapman. Still, I believe NC State gets the necessary stops and interceptions to capitalize on a lackluster MSU defense for a road win.
TB is seriously inflated because of the run they've been on over last 30 days. You have to take the plus money and the O's offense is in the top against lefties.
Love the Orioles here. Keegan Akin has been a bright spot since joining the rotation, holding opponents to one earned run over his first 9 2/3 innings. He has a 3.09 ERA as a starter in eight games dating back to 2020. Ryan Yarborough has an ERA right at 4.00 and is 3-3 in his six starts this season. Give me the kid and the +150 odds.
The White Sox's bats were ice cold at Yankee Stadium but against the Cardinals at home in this spot, I expect Chicago to wake up. Giolito just needs to bring his A game to get the win here.
The Mariners' offense is one of the worst in the league but against the A's Cole Irvin, I expect some runs to be scored by Seattle. I don't look for youngster Logan Gilbert to last more than 3 innings, but he has been hit hard in his limited innings.
The Braves are scoring runs the way we thought they would at the start of the season and the bullpen has looked good of late. I take my chances with Charlie Morton here.
The Reds' Tyler Mahle is coming off his worst outing of the year and they have been far too inconsistent for me to back them here against one of the best starters in the league.
Turnbull has been pitching at a high level, recording 33 swinging strikes in his last two starts. Turnbull has allowed just 1 ER in 15 1/3 IP across his last two outings, with a 16/3 K/BB. His most recent performance was a gem, as he pitched a no-hitter against the Seattle Mariners.
The Detroit offense ranks dead last in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching, but they haven’t faced many with skills as weak as Hentges. He is walking a lot of batters and allowing consistent hard contact, leading to five homers allowed in his 15 1/3 innings of work.
A pair of struggling starting pitchers in Keuchel and Taillon will toe the rubber, with both offenses seemingly poised to break out. I think we see some runs today at the Yankee Stadium hitter friendly park with two sub-par hurlers on the hill.
Mr. Trice aside, the Badgers have gone brutally cold from the field and isn’t hitting from three. They only hit 40% or more from three once in their last 13 games, the’ve only hit 40% from the field once in the last five games, and worst of all, the defense has sort of stopped too.
Purdue hasn’t played a slew of killer teams, but it’s shooting incredibly well lately against mediocre teams. Wisconsin is proving to be one of those mediocre teams. Purdue’s defense will outplay the Badger D in a bit of a slugfest.
The Rockets haven’t won a game since Feb. 4, dropping each of their last seven. And now on Monday, they could be without Cousins and may still not have Oladipo back.
The Thunder have won three straight on the road, and four of five games on their recently concluded trip. All four of OKC’s wins on the road trip were as an underdog as three or more points. The Spurs were able to score just 88 points in its eight-point loss at Minnesota Sunday in the second end of a back-to-back. Wrong team favored.
Everything I've read said that Jared Goff "was ready to go today", so Rams will have Goff and Cooper Kupp back for the rubber match after the Week 16 loss at Seattle cost them the NFC West title. The Rams have arguably the best defense in the NFL lead by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, so look for thhe Seahawks' running game to be contained and Russell Wilson won't see much open downfield for D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Rams will mix up personnel, running the ball well and spreading it around in the intermediate passing game to Kupp, Woods and the tight ends. I think this fickle Rams team does just enough today. Pick: Rams win 20-17
Getting 17 points here just doesn't pass the sniff test, I really thought this line would b closer to 10-14 points. Nebraska has struggled with both offensive consistency and discipline on both sides, Illinois has been equally sloppy. Smith's defense must put Nebraska's starters up front on roller skates as Penn State did and keep McCaffrey in check on the ground. If they do this, they have a legitimate opportunity to win this game, not likely but there's a chance but I'll take the 17 points to play it safe.
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles struggled on the defensive side of the ball against the Liberty Flames as they allowed them to score 56 points and rack up a total of 537 yards of offense. The Rice Owls are coming off their 1st game of the season which makes this pick more attractive as they knocked off their offseason rust, and they should have no problem putting points up on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles as they have given up 56+ points in two games this year. I like Rice here in a high scoring game.
***OVER 56.5*** I lost money on Ok State last week and tempted to lay the big number with Baylor here, but Ok State did have 4 costly turnovers last week so don't get too deceived by last week's OSU score. But Baylor's offense continues to defy - Quarterback Charlie Brewer is 25th in the nation in completion percentage at 66.3 and 32nd in passing yards with 1,866. I've disliked Brewer the past 3 years but the kid keeps proving me wrong week after week and costing me money. The Bears' offense has been putting up big numbers, averaging 484.1 yards and 38.9 points per game. I like Baylor to win convincing here but this line at 18.5 is too thick. But I do like this total here at only 56.5. Baylor averaging almost 500 yards per game WVU has a couple receivers that can take the top off the defense and will find ways to score. And both teams are coming off of a bye week, so expect good offensive game plans from both teams. Baylor wins a 42-21 type of game. Let's cash that over play tonight.
In his first career postseason start, Paxton battled through 4 2/3 innings, striking out eight but allowing three runs. Next up, an Astros team the left-hander allowed five runs to in Houston on April 10 but held to one run in New York on June 21. Verlander had a rare postseason hiccup pitching on short rest in his last start against the Rays, lasting only 3 2/3 innings. But Verlander still has a 2.92 ERA in the playoffs as an Astro, including two dominant wins over the Yankees in 2017. This is a must win game for Houston and they should knot the series behind a strong performance against Verlander. I also think the Stro's will get to Paxton tonight.
