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The Flames have been the better team all season and have won five of the last seven meetings against the Stars, so you can understand why they’re favored here, but -160 just doesn't have a lot of value for Calgary bettors . Dallas has been in the thick of every game this series and had their chances to win game 5 on the road. The Stars play their best hockey at home, and this series has been so tight and low scoring that you get the feeling this series is destined for a game 7. Got to like the +140 plus money here from a value perspective.

Betting Pick: Dallas +140

Could all 4 underdogs win this weekend? I'm betting on it.

This is a rematch from a game earlier this season that the Bills won on the Chiefs' home field. The Bills and Chiefs are both coming off impressive victories. Both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen lit up their opponents last week, but this is a big step up for both in terms of defenses. The Bills have the top-ranked defense in the league and built their pass rush in the offseason to beat Mahomes. The Chiefs defense isn't as good, but it played much better over the course of the second half of the season. The Chiefs love to blitz, which will leave Allen free to run and make throws on the run. I think that will be the difference here.

Pick: Bills 35, Chiefs 31

Fav Prop Play: Josh Allen over 55 yards rushing.

***JAGUARS +14.5***

Not sure when's the last time a double-digit underdog won in back-to-back NFL weeks, but I'll roll the dice the Jaguars' defense keeps things tight the whole way. It has to hold RB Jonathan Taylor under 100 yards, though. If the Jaguars' passing game is ever going to hit some big plays, doing it against a Colts' defense that has allowed a league-high 23 TD passes (17 inside the red zone) would seem like an opportune time for Trevor Lawrence. I think the Jags surprise today, and this is the perfect matchup to do it, not predicting an upset here but I love the 14.5 points in this one.

Score Prediction: Colts 24, Jags 17

Battle of backup QB's. Guess I'm riding with Case Keenum and D'Ernest Johnson.

This line opened at Tennessee +2 and has moved to Tennessee -7 after a mass defection of Purdue players. The Boilermakers leading receiver David Bell and leading edge rusher George Karlaftis have both opted out. No. 2 receiver Milton Wright and No. 1 cornerback Dedrick Mackey are reportedly ineligible, according to Tom Dienhart of Gold and Black, the official Rivals site of Purdue. Left tackle Greg Long is doubtful.

Given the fact that Tennessee football’s only opt out is Alontae Taylor and the only other question is if Cade Mays is 100 percent, the Vols have every advantage here and should win in a route. This game is also in Nashville which makes it pretty much a home game for the Vols.

Prediction: Tennessee -7

This matchup is ultimately dependant upon whether Samuel can play on Sunday. If he can, a group of Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Sherfield is more than enough to press the Bengals secondary. And Joe's pinky on his throwing hand still has to be stiff/sore AF right?

There's no question that Oklahoma State has been the better team this season, especially over the past few weeks. And there's no question Ok State has the better defense this year.

While the Sooners struggled on offense in the loss to Baylor and in the close calls against Iowa State and Kansas, the Cowboys have emerged as a defensive juggernaut, allowing just one offensive touchdown in the past four games—a touchdown that came in the fourth quarter of a 49-3 game, no less.

Caleb Williams seemed like the answer to Oklahoma's woes for a few weeks, but he has not looked right lately and this Oklahoma State defense might eat him alive.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 28, Oklahoma 17

One week after an impressive 41-38 win over Iowa State, Texas Tech managed just 108 total yards in a 23-0 loss to Oklahoma State, but then again the OSU Cowboys have a legit Top 5 defense. This team also opened the season with a convincing win over Houston before later allowing 70 points to Texas and 52 points to TCU. Texas Tech has had a bit of a carousel at QB this year due to injuries so trying to make any sense of the Red Raiders record is liable to hurt your brain.

But just looking at this spread, I just instinctively like the points here....Baylor did get beat by a bad TCU team just 3 weeks ago and Tech did play KSU tough and beat a good ISU team. Baylor wins here pretty easily but I think the back door will be ajar late.

Prediction: Baylor 35, Texas Tech 24

It could help that the Bears have had two weeks to prepare for that defense, but receivers Allen Robinson II (hamstring) and Darnell Mooney (foot) are actually dealing with new injuries for Chicago, and Baltimore has also benefited from extra recovery time after playing on Thursday night last week. Even though the Ravens were embarrassed by the Dolphins, I’m treating that game as an outlier, being on a short week after an overtime win.

The Bears are 19th in yards per rush allowed and have allowed the 11th-most rushing yards in the NFL, so they could have trouble against the Ravens’ ground game. And when it comes to Baltimore’s defense, it should have success against the rookie Fields, who has thrown eight interceptions and struggled under pressure.

Prediction: Baltimore 31- Chicago 17

Is Wisconsin finally going to become the first team to beat 2021 Nebraska by double digits? The Cornhuskers have been incapable of winning big games, but they sure have made things difficult for their opponents on their way to those seven losses.

After a rough start to the season, though, Wisconsin is firing on all cylinders. The average final score during the Badgers' six-game winning streak is 31.3 to 7.3, as their defense has allowed just four touchdowns since Oct 3.

In fairness, though, the six offenses they faced during that time were either quite bad (Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern and Rutgers) or one-dimensional (Army run; Purdue pass). Nebraska's record is bad, but the Cornhuskers are still a competent and dangerous football team and I still don't trust this Wisconsin team.

Prediction: Wisconsin 28, Nebraska 24

This Prairie View A&M has a lot of talent and was 7-1 overall and ranked 24th in the FCS Top 25 prior to a loss to Alcorn State last Saturday. The Panthers are led at quarterback by Louisville transfer Jawon Pass and have scored at least 24 points in all but one game this season. I like the Panthers offense to put up 10-14 points and stay inside the spread here.

Prediction: Texas A&M 44, Prairie View A&M 10

Super low total, but I still like the Under 38.5 points here. Illinois has been held to 100 passing yards or fewer in five of its last six games, and it has averaged just 14.0 points over its last eight games. Even against mediocre defenses, the Illini have struggled to move the ball. Against Iowa's defense you can expect those scoring struggles to continue.

Illinois defense has held seven consecutive opponents to 24 points or fewer, while Iowa ranks 123rd in the nation in total offense. This matchups sets up for a low scoring snoozer.

Just another Saturday in the Big Ten West.

Prediction: Iowa 14, Illinois 9

The Chargers haven't won in nearly a month, and they didn't come close to covering in losses to the Ravens and Patriots. But the Philadelphia Eagles aren't on Baltimore or New England's level. Against teams with winning records this season, the Eagles are 0-3 with an average margin of defeat of 12.3 points. I like the Chargers here to pick up the road win.

Garcia is worth the price.

Atlanta has shown at least some signs of positive momentum of late, while the Panthers are in full-on implosion mode after dropping four straight. When starting P.J. Walker at quarterback starts to sound like a good idea, you know your team is in trouble.

The Falcons defense is a concern for Atlanta bettors here, but the Falcons have the better offense at this point and after last week I just can't even consider playing Carolina here.

Justin Fields has a league-low QBR of 16.7 and the Bears offense has failed to score more than 24 points in any game Fields has played in this year. I don't expect things to change against Nick Bosa and this 49ers defense.

Despite a 2-4 record, the constantly unhealthy 49ers remain an above-average team when it comes to DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders. Meanwhile, thanks mainly to their 29th-rated offense, the Bears rank well below the league median in that category.

Throw in that top Bears defensive player Khalil Mack has been shut down with a foot injury and laying the points in this spot makes sense.

This spread just doesn't pass the eye test. Appalachian State appeared to figure out Coastal Carolina's recipe for success in the second half of last week's upset win...but Troy isn't on par with App State.

The Trojans certainly have a defense capable of causing problems for McCall and the high powered CCU passing offense. I'm sure Coastal will be plenty pissed after loosing their first conference game in almost 2 years, but 17 points just feels like too many here.

Prediction: Coastal Carolina 34 - Troy 20 (slight lean)

The Bulls are coming off their most impressive win of the year against an FBS opponent, spanking Temple 34-14 in Tampa (as 2-point favorites) to cover in consecutive games for the first time this season. The defense also allowed a season-low in points, but then again Temple is a bad football team.

The Pirates lost a 31-24 overtime heartbreaker in Houston but easily covered as 13.5-point underdogs. ECU has now covered three straight games ATS.

I like the +10 points in this game. The Bulls are coming off its most impressive showing of the season. Their defense shut down Temple last week, allowing just 48 yards on the ground and 183 yards through the air while gashing the Owls for 421 yards on the ground. ECU is the better team but I like South Florida to make this game interesting and stay within the number.

Pick: South Florida +10

Nearly 75 percent of public bettors backing Carolina as a three-point road favorite against the injury-crushed New York Giants. But laying points on the road with the Panthers does not fill me with confidence, but it beats the notion of picking the Giants to win and cover this game.

Bottomline - New York's wideout corps is an injury-ravaged mess, and the Giants offensive line is terrible. It's that last one that is the real dealbreaker—Carolina's pass rush should have little trouble harassing Danny Dimes today.

Taking Carolina - but this pick feels linear so treading lightly.

Cleveland pulled the big upset yesterday as +230 underdogs and I think they make it two in a row with Plesac on the hill. In two of Zach Plesac’s last three starts he has given up only two runs. In what should be a low scoring game the Indians are a live dog here.

People are talking about the FT discrepancy as the difference in game 1. I'll point out this: Jae Crowder 0-5 from 3, Book 1-8 from 3 (combined 1-13). What are the chances those guys go 1 of 13 from 3 again? Very unlikely. And what are the chances the Bucks shoot a playoff best 50% from behind the arc again? Also unlikely. I like the Suns to cover -5.5 #Sunsin5

Call me crazy, but I don't think the Mavericks are going to continue shooting 57.7 percent on wide-open 3s or 42.5 percent on tightly covered ones. They've ridden some of their hottest shooting of the season into two wins. It's DEFCON 3 and the Clippers aren't going down 3-0 in this series. Only 6.3 percent of teams that fall down 2-0 in a series end up coming back, so it's do or die tonight.

Spats likes Carolina. Spats is a highly educated man with a superior mind. Spats is the foremost authority on hockey. Follow Spats commands and you'll no longer be a loser. Take Carolina minus the 115. Just lay it and play it, baby! And never forget, Spats is smarter than you.

Spats has spoken.

"Go Get Educated"
- Carl Spats