irishblue

Neither Notre Dame nor Virginia Tech has looked particularly good on offense yet this season, save for the first three quarters of Notre Dame's opener against Florida State in which Jack Coan looked like a Heisman Trophy contender. The Fighting Irish can't run the ball, and the Hokies needed a punt-return touchdown just to reach 21 points in their most recent game against Richmond.

And aside from Notre Dame picking off basically everything in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin, neither defense has been all that special, with each allowing more yards per play on defense than it has gained on offense.

Making matters even more fun, meteorologists are calling for rain across Virginia pretty much all week, so this could be quite the slop fest, which I tend to like the UNDERS in these conditions. But if that's the case, advantage Virginia Tech, which has the more mobile (and healthy) of the two quarterbacks.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, Notre Dame 20

Alabama has been really impressive at the start of the season. They have three cupcakes on their schedule this year, but have only played one so far (Mercer). They absolutely annihilated Miami and beat a very good Florida team last week in a nail biter. This week, the Tide can take their foot off the gas after halftime against a Golden Eagles team that is going to struggle to move the football. The Golden Eagles have a stout defensive front, which might help their offense get good enough field position to end a drive with a field goal or two. But they can’t run the ball and will likely be starting true freshman Ty Keyes for the second game in a row, which is not a good sign against Alabama. Not in love with this line but laying the pile of points here.

Alabama 56, Southern Miss 7

Following a Week 3 home loss to FCS school Northern Arizona, Arizona's losing streak is up to a staggering 15 games. One week removed from that colossal road win over Ohio State, the Ducks effortlessly took care of business against Stony Brook for a 48-7 victory. They might not score quite that often against an Arizona defense that has been relatively decent, but look for the Ducks defense to suck the life out of an already lifeless Wildcats offense. Arizona's anemic offense will be lucky to score 7 points on Saturday. Buying this line down to -28 (-120) just in case.

Prediction: Oregon 42, Arizona 7

It's the biggest game of the week by a country mile, and yet we have no idea who Florida's primary quarterback will be. Anthony Richardson has been, by no small margin, better than Emory Jones through the first two games. Richardson suffered an apparent hamstring injury on his final play (an 80-yard touchdown run) against South Florida, leaving it unclear if he's even healthy enough to start against Alabama today.

Alabama has won its past seven games against Florida, six by a margin of at least two touchdowns and six while Florida was ranked 18th or better. I see little reason to assume that trend will change, though Richardson could be quite the X-factor if he does in fact play today.

Prediction: Alabama 36, Florida 20

That was fast. 😳

The Irish lost nine offensive starters, including four offensive linemen and their reliable quarterback, Ian Book. Their only returning starters on the offensive side of the ball are their center and running back. Give me the Noles at home and the 7 points, sprinkle the ML.

The 49ers have the offensive weapons to hang with Duke -6.5 (-110), who failed to cover its final four last season while allowing 48 or more points in each of the outings. Charlotte has the offense to move the ball. Buying the hook here just in case, Charlotte +7. BOL!

Kawhi Leonard shot 58.3% and Paul George 50% from the field in game 3, and you can't expect those numbers to continue. 5 points just feels like too many here in what should be a close game.

The Jazz are just growing in confidence with each game as they’re getting it done without one of their key players in Conley who could be out once again with that lingering hamstring injury. I’m sure the Clippers will come out firing, and sure this game 3 could play out like the Mavs game 3, but 4.5 just feels like too many to lay.

The Bucks have the fresher legs here, but they don't have a 3 headed monster. The Nets win at home by an average of 7.2 points and are 14-2 against the spread when favored by 4.5 or less points. Should be a fun series, but I like Nets to draw first blood.

After getting run out of State Farm Arena by an average margin of 14 points across Games 3 and 4 though, I find it hard to believe New York is going to muster up enough magic to come back and make this a series.

It's not if but when and Atlanta wants to wrap up things as quickly as possible. I think Atlanta leans on Trae Young tonight so let's also get on his over 25.5 points prop. BOL!

Lakers are cooked in this series.

The Knicks only scored 97 points against a short handed Denver team and I predict they struggle again tonight against a top ranked Suns defense.

Pairing Boston ML with San Diego Padres -185. $100 pays $140.

Washington ML (+125) is worth a look as small dogs here. They won the first meeting Feb. 22 in Los Angeles by a 127-124 score in overtime as seven-point underdogs. While the Lakers did not have Anthony Davis in the lineup that day, LeBron was still healthy and playing. Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

Cleveland isn’t exactly lighting the world afire, but Orlando is also struggling and the Cavs are at home. Cavs win 110-102 type of game.

Baylor went just 3-for-19 from 3-point land against Villanova but showed its versatility, outscoring Villanova 40-32 in the paint to assert itself inside. The Wildcats managed just 10 points in the last 11 minutes. IF Baylor shoots 35% from 3 they will win by double digits.

Loyola is cooked.

Loyola wins this game.

Villanova KenPom Ratings

Overall Efficiency Margin: +23.53 (No. 11 in NCAA)
Offense: 119.8 (No. 6 in NCAA)
Defense: 96.3 (No. 72 in NCAA)
Tempo: 64.6 (No. 332 in NCAA)

Baylor KenPom Ratings

Overall Efficiency Margin: +29.75 (No. 2 in NCAA)
Offense: 122.8 (No. 3 in NCAA)
Defense: 93.1 (No. 37 in NCAA)
Tempo: 68.5 (No. 157 in NCAA)

While I have the utmost respect for Jay Wright and the Villanova program, I’m just not convinced that this year’s version of the Wildcats can hang with one of the top teams in the country. Also Nova' is without their second-leading scorer Collin Gillespie and I just don't see them having the offense to keep up.

Pick: Baylor -7 -115 (buying the hook)

If Stetson is interested in pulling off another upset, they might have to shoot better and score more points than they did against Bowling Green yesterday. Netting 53 points against Coastal Carolina likely isn’t going to work. Coastal Carolina can score, and they can score in a hurry.

DeVante’ Jones is coming off a big performance for the Chanticleers, as he racked up 25 points and 9 rebounds. The 6’1” guard has gotten the attention of NBA scouts and is next level. Jones has helped catapult Coastal Carolina to 80.4 points per game for 22nd in the NCAA. If he gets going tonight Stetson has no chance.

The Hatters looked rusty offensively against Bowling Green on Monday. They scored 53 points and relied on their defense to edge the Falcons out by a point. Relying on the defense is not going to be an option against Jones and the Chanticleers.

Coastal Carolina 77 - Stetson 65

Duke has dropped their last 3 games and now 11-11 on the season and only 7-15 ATS. BC only a 4 win team but they have been competitive of late and just knocked off Notre Dame. I just don't think Duke deserves to be 12.5 point favorites over anybody. Give me BC here.

The OVER 152 is worth a look. Duke ranks 237th nationally in defensive efficiency and Boston College ranks 313th out of 347 teams in that category. We should see some points in this game.

The Sun Devils are on a nice tear lately. It helps to face Washington twice, but a three-game winning streak have brought the Sun Devils back from the dead. ASU has the ability to score and keep scoring and their offense should be able to stay within earshot in this game.

CU wins 76-70.

The Huskers just knocked off two good teams in Rutgers and Minnesota and won’t have the firepower or consistency to keep up once Iowa goes on a run with big plays inside and out. But getting 17 points is a boat load of points against a Huskers team playing their best ball of the season.

I have Alabama covering the 8.5 points but it won’t be a blowout. The Buckeyes will make this a tough game and it will come down to a late mistake by Ohio State that allows Alabama to make it a two-score game and put it away.

NC STATE +3 - NC State had a strong record, it was the only team to beat Liberty, and it comes in this on a four-game winning streak. Kentucky is too fickle of a team here IMO, I'll take the 3 free points in a game NC STATE can win out right.

Notre Dame hasn't looked the same since they lost their Sr. Center Jarrett Patterson. The loss of Patterson, a junior, is a blow to the middle of the Irish offensive line. The 6-foot-5, 305-pound Patterson started the previous 21 games at center for what has become one of the best offensive lines in the country. He was replaced with Sophomore Zeke Correll who gives up about 25 lbs and not the same caliber.

The Alabama front 5 are going to wreck havoc on the ND line and Ian Book will be scrambling for his life today just like we saw in the Clemson game. The Tide wins 45-23.

Hope you got your Colorado +10.5 because the Buffs are getting hammered, line now down to +9 and +8.5 at some books. Before losing to Utah the Buffs had won 4 in a row and was rolling through some pretty good PAC 12 teams, beating both UCLA and Stanford.

The Longhorns will be without several key starters due to their decision to forego the remainder of the season to prepare for the 2021 NFL draft. Star left tackle Samuel Cosmi and wide receiver Brennan Eagles are the primary players missing on the offensive side. Due to an injury to center Derek Kerstetter, Texas will start two freshman on the offensive line.

Colorado's offense is potent and Brenden Rice, son of Jerry Rice, is explosive. As good as Robinson has been in recent weeks, Colorado sophomore Jarek Broussard has been one of the top backs in the country in their limited season. He’s averaged more than six yards per carry in five games, running for over 300 yards in their win over Arizona.

Without Ossai, defensive lineman Ta’Quon Graham and several other defensive starters, Broussard will be licking his chops to get a shot at the young Texas defense.

All signs point to Colorado here IMO, I think they could even walk away with the W, so don't forget to sprinkle the ML.

Arkansas is running into the SEC’s best offense at the worst time of the season. The Razorback defense looked great to start the season, but the grueling schedule they were handed has taken its toll. Alabama is scoring nearly 50 points per game and the Hogs gave that up to a Missouri team that starts a freshman quarterback. The question at quarterback still remains for Arkansas, but I do not think either can keep up with Mac Jones and the Crimson Tide. Alabama’s defense is not as dominant as usual, so the Hogs will score points and I think stay inside of the 30 point spread.

Score: Alabama 52, Arkansas 28

The Falcons have played well as of late, rolling over the Raiders last week. I don't think that happens again, but the Saints will allow a touchdown or two this week. New Orleans' offense is primed to find its groove through the air, even with Taysom Hill in the pocket.