IRISHBLUE

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Can the Blue Devils get past Arkansas to make it to the Final 4? Without a doubt. The Razorbacks are tough on defense, but they have been mediocre on offense through their first three tournament games. Duke does not have a ton of experience, but the Blue Devils' roster is flush with future NBA talent, and this is a team that has too many weapons on offense for Arkansas to contain for 40 minutes.

Score Prediction: Duke 74 - Arkansas the 67

My vs predictions:

$500 | DUKE -3.75

I faded Texas against VT and lost that bet, but I'm fading the Shorthorns again here today. On paper Texas and Purdue are statistically identical, Purdue (KenPom No. 14) and Texas (KenPom No. 15). But I think Purdue is the play here as the Boilermakers have a big advantage in the frontcourt with their 2 big men Zach Edey (14.6 ppg) and Trevion Williams (11.6 ppg.) One of Texas’ weakness from a personnel standpoint has been in their frontcourt. Longhorns big man Christian Bishop will be tasked with limiting Edey and Williams, and I’m unsure he’ll be able to do that. Purdue has been one of the best teams in the country scoring in the paint, and I think they eat Texas up on the inside today. Not to mention I'm just not very high on this piece milled Texas team this year.

My vs predictions:

$100 | PURDU -3

Notre Dame catching 8 points just doesn't pass the eye test, I think this line should be ND +3 or +4. This Notre Dame offense is averaging over 80 points per game over their last 10 games and Texas Tech is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Tech's offense has struggled mightily all season (sans the Montana State game) and I just think the Irish's offense keeps this game close.

My vs predictions:

$500 | ND +8

Ohio is the better team here and Rice is a .500 team and don't have the talent to keep up here. I've got the Bobcats winning the CBI tournament and think they win by double digits here.

My vs predictions:

$100 | OHIO -6.5

Head scratcher why the books continue to disrespect Providence, a team that is 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams. Maybe it’s because Richmond is on a heater, but the body of overall work for the Friars is way more impressive.

New Orleans ML +455 at this window. Let's Geaux!

My vs predictions:

$100 | NO +11.5
$500 | NO +420

This line opened at 17 and has ran up to -20.5 at most books. But for once I think the public is right here....I think Notre Dame will blow the doors off of Stanford today. Notre Dame is firing on all cylinders on offense and hasn't allowed a touchdown in any of its last three games while Stanford is mired in a six-game losing streak that most recently includes blowouts at the hands of Oregon State and California.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Stanford 10

My vs predictions:

$250 | NOTRD -21

Georgia Tech had a surprisingly effective defense in September, almost beating Clemson and more than doubling up North Carolina, 45-22. But the D has been a disaster for the Ramblin' Wreck since then, allowing at least 250 passing yards and at least 170 rushing yards to six consecutive opponents.

During that same time, Notre Dame has found itself on offense, averaging 207.4 rushing yards over the past five games compared to 80.8 in the first five.

Factor in a Fighting Irish defense that has held back-to-back opponents without a touchdown, and I'll lay the points with ND at home.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Georgia Tech 10

My vs predictions:

$500 | NOTRD -18

Neither Notre Dame nor Virginia Tech has looked particularly good on offense yet this season, save for the first three quarters of Notre Dame's opener against Florida State in which Jack Coan looked like a Heisman Trophy contender. The Fighting Irish can't run the ball, and the Hokies needed a punt-return touchdown just to reach 21 points in their most recent game against Richmond.

And aside from Notre Dame picking off basically everything in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin, neither defense has been all that special, with each allowing more yards per play on defense than it has gained on offense.

Making matters even more fun, meteorologists are calling for rain across Virginia pretty much all week, so this could be quite the slop fest, which I tend to like the UNDERS in these conditions. But if that's the case, advantage Virginia Tech, which has the more mobile (and healthy) of the two quarterbacks.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24, Notre Dame 20

My vs predictions:

$250 | VTECH -117
$100 | UNDER 47

Alabama has been really impressive at the start of the season. They have three cupcakes on their schedule this year, but have only played one so far (Mercer). They absolutely annihilated Miami and beat a very good Florida team last week in a nail biter. This week, the Tide can take their foot off the gas after halftime against a Golden Eagles team that is going to struggle to move the football. The Golden Eagles have a stout defensive front, which might help their offense get good enough field position to end a drive with a field goal or two. But they can’t run the ball and will likely be starting true freshman Ty Keyes for the second game in a row, which is not a good sign against Alabama. Not in love with this line but laying the pile of points here.

Alabama 56, Southern Miss 7

My vs predictions:

$100 | ALAB -45

Following a Week 3 home loss to FCS school Northern Arizona, Arizona's losing streak is up to a staggering 15 games. One week removed from that colossal road win over Ohio State, the Ducks effortlessly took care of business against Stony Brook for a 48-7 victory. They might not score quite that often against an Arizona defense that has been relatively decent, but look for the Ducks defense to suck the life out of an already lifeless Wildcats offense. Arizona's anemic offense will be lucky to score 7 points on Saturday. Buying this line down to -28 (-120) just in case.

Prediction: Oregon 42, Arizona 7

My vs predictions:

$250 | OREG -29.5

It's the biggest game of the week by a country mile, and yet we have no idea who Florida's primary quarterback will be. Anthony Richardson has been, by no small margin, better than Emory Jones through the first two games. Richardson suffered an apparent hamstring injury on his final play (an 80-yard touchdown run) against South Florida, leaving it unclear if he's even healthy enough to start against Alabama today.

Alabama has won its past seven games against Florida, six by a margin of at least two touchdowns and six while Florida was ranked 18th or better. I see little reason to assume that trend will change, though Richardson could be quite the X-factor if he does in fact play today.

Prediction: Alabama 36, Florida 20

My vs predictions:

$250 | ALAB -14

That was fast. 😳

My vs predictions:

$500 | FLAST +7
$250 | FLAST +234

The Irish lost nine offensive starters, including four offensive linemen and their reliable quarterback, Ian Book. Their only returning starters on the offensive side of the ball are their center and running back. Give me the Noles at home and the 7 points, sprinkle the ML.

My vs predictions:

$500 | FLAST +7
$250 | FLAST +234

The 49ers have the offensive weapons to hang with Duke -6.5 (-110), who failed to cover its final four last season while allowing 48 or more points in each of the outings. Charlotte has the offense to move the ball. Buying the hook here just in case, Charlotte +7. BOL!

My vs predictions:

$500 | CHARLT +6.5

Kawhi Leonard shot 58.3% and Paul George 50% from the field in game 3, and you can't expect those numbers to continue. 5 points just feels like too many here in what should be a close game.

My vs predictions:

$500 | UTA +5

The Jazz are just growing in confidence with each game as they’re getting it done without one of their key players in Conley who could be out once again with that lingering hamstring injury. I’m sure the Clippers will come out firing, and sure this game 3 could play out like the Mavs game 3, but 4.5 just feels like too many to lay.

My vs predictions:

$500 | UTA +4.5

The Bucks have the fresher legs here, but they don't have a 3 headed monster. The Nets win at home by an average of 7.2 points and are 14-2 against the spread when favored by 4.5 or less points. Should be a fun series, but I like Nets to draw first blood.

My vs predictions:

$250 | BKN -4

After getting run out of State Farm Arena by an average margin of 14 points across Games 3 and 4 though, I find it hard to believe New York is going to muster up enough magic to come back and make this a series.

It's not if but when and Atlanta wants to wrap up things as quickly as possible. I think Atlanta leans on Trae Young tonight so let's also get on his over 25.5 points prop. BOL!

Lakers are cooked in this series.

My vs predictions:

$500 | PHO -5

The Knicks only scored 97 points against a short handed Denver team and I predict they struggle again tonight against a top ranked Suns defense.

My vs predictions:

$500 | PHO -6.5

Pairing Boston ML with San Diego Padres -185. $100 pays $140.

My vs predictions:

$500 | BOS -168
@IrishBlue

1 Y 1 MO

Washington ML (+125) is worth a look as small dogs here. They won the first meeting Feb. 22 in Los Angeles by a 127-124 score in overtime as seven-point underdogs. While the Lakers did not have Anthony Davis in the lineup that day, LeBron was still healthy and playing. Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

Cleveland isn’t exactly lighting the world afire, but Orlando is also struggling and the Cavs are at home. Cavs win 110-102 type of game.

My vs predictions:

$250 | CLE -3.5

Baylor went just 3-for-19 from 3-point land against Villanova but showed its versatility, outscoring Villanova 40-32 in the paint to assert itself inside. The Wildcats managed just 10 points in the last 11 minutes. IF Baylor shoots 35% from 3 they will win by double digits.

My vs predictions:

$500 | BAYLR -7.5

I had $20 Loyola +1200 to win their region. I'm sick.

Fact.

@IrishBlue

1 Y 2 MO

Oregon State lost at home to Portland, which went 0-11 in the WCC with a -23.5 PPG diff. Come on Sister Jean.

Villanova KenPom Ratings

Overall Efficiency Margin: +23.53 (No. 11 in NCAA)
Offense: 119.8 (No. 6 in NCAA)
Defense: 96.3 (No. 72 in NCAA)
Tempo: 64.6 (No. 332 in NCAA)

Baylor KenPom Ratings

Overall Efficiency Margin: +29.75 (No. 2 in NCAA)
Offense: 122.8 (No. 3 in NCAA)
Defense: 93.1 (No. 37 in NCAA)
Tempo: 68.5 (No. 157 in NCAA)

While I have the utmost respect for Jay Wright and the Villanova program, I’m just not convinced that this year’s version of the Wildcats can hang with one of the top teams in the country. Also Nova' is without their second-leading scorer Collin Gillespie and I just don't see them having the offense to keep up.

Pick: Baylor -7 -115 (buying the hook)

My vs predictions:

$500 | BAYLR -7.5

If Stetson is interested in pulling off another upset, they might have to shoot better and score more points than they did against Bowling Green yesterday. Netting 53 points against Coastal Carolina likely isn’t going to work. Coastal Carolina can score, and they can score in a hurry.

DeVante’ Jones is coming off a big performance for the Chanticleers, as he racked up 25 points and 9 rebounds. The 6’1” guard has gotten the attention of NBA scouts and is next level. Jones has helped catapult Coastal Carolina to 80.4 points per game for 22nd in the NCAA. If he gets going tonight Stetson has no chance.

The Hatters looked rusty offensively against Bowling Green on Monday. They scored 53 points and relied on their defense to edge the Falcons out by a point. Relying on the defense is not going to be an option against Jones and the Chanticleers.

Coastal Carolina 77 - Stetson 65

My vs predictions:

$500 | COCAR -7

Duke has dropped their last 3 games and now 11-11 on the season and only 7-15 ATS. BC only a 4 win team but they have been competitive of late and just knocked off Notre Dame. I just don't think Duke deserves to be 12.5 point favorites over anybody. Give me BC here.

The OVER 152 is worth a look. Duke ranks 237th nationally in defensive efficiency and Boston College ranks 313th out of 347 teams in that category. We should see some points in this game.

My vs predictions:

$250 | BC +12.5
$500 | OVER 152.5
@SuperSoms

1 Y 3 MO

Could be one of those blow outs. 93-72 lol but In all seriousness nice write up. I agree if anything in this game I think over is doable. BC may score in first half then Duke pulls away. BC should give up points regardless. BOL

My vs predictions:

$500 | OVER 152.5
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