emc

If you can get the Cuse at nearly +200 on this matchup, you really oughta bet them on the ML. Sure, UNC won the game back in FEb as +5 underdogs but I don't think they are as good a team. It's not really a great spot for the CUse in terms of "neutral site" (game is in North Carolina) but I think the public is going to be all over this mediocre Heels team. What spells trendy more than a tarheels bet in March?

Well it's not the same Heels team we are used to and the gen public certainly hasn't a clue. They're bad. Elijah Hughes is a monster and will have a 20/10 game.

The Rockets have a season-long four-game losing streak, coming off losses in the back-to-back against the Hornets and Magic. The Timberwolves have split their past four games, losing to the Pelicans at home on Sunday, their final game before starting a six-game road trip here in H-Town. Iexpect Minny to keep it close early on so I'd look at the 1Q and 1H lines and make my bets there.

The Rockets are 22-12 against teams with losing records. Of teams in position to make the playoffs, only the Nets (21-13) have a worse record against teams below .500. Translation? Houston is a hard team to gauge.

The Timberwolves are 23rd offensively and have ranked last in the NBA defensively since the All-Star break. KAT is out so I don't see Minny keeping it close all night but I do like them on a 1Q spread to cover. Overall though - Houston pulls away in the 2nd half.

Interesting to see the Pacers as home dogs here. The Celtics have dropped four of their last five games as they crawl into Bankers Life Fieldhouse for a matchup against the surging Pacers, who have won six of seven!

The Under is 20-11 at home for the Pacers this season who will likely be playing a slower pace tonight as well. I think Boston comes out and plays tough defense as well after a brutal loss to OKC which likely motivated this roster of winners.

Points should be at a premium in this matchup as both teams rank inside the Top 5 in scoring defense, with Boston allowing the fewest points per game at 106.8. The Celtics are also second in 3-point defense (34.1 percent) and fourth in overall field goal defense (44.1 percent).

I don't have a clear angle on the spread but the total should go Under based on stats and betting histories.

the Knicks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a win, 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Wizards are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 10 points.

The road team has won in each of the three prior meetings. Not tonight. Knicks beat the Pistons most recently but aren't a team that get hot or go on winning streaks - not on the road. two possessions against a bad team as the spread? I'll take that all day, Sportjaw Fam! No Ish Smith but Beal has a bounce back game here after shooting 8 for 24 against the Heat.

Kings have been playing some of their best basketball of the season as they've won 10 of their past 14 games and they will be looking to stay hot after taking down the Trailblazers in a 123-111 road win last night. Bogdan Bogdanovic led the team with 27 points and eight assists, Buddy Hield added 22 points off the bench and look out - with Hield off the bench and Bogdan in the starting rotation, this team is dangerous. Toronto will struggle to keep up.

Kings are a good ML play here. the Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on two days' rest, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on zero days' rest, 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.

In Clippers’ conference games, the under is 22-16 this season. In just division games, the under is 6-3. The first two games between these two teams this season both went under the total.

Lakers been great as underdogs - they’ve excelled in this spot this year, going 6-1 (ATS). The Lakers have done it almost entirely through defense, which has ranked second over the past two weeks, allowing just 101.0 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers have also been incredible defensively in that time frame, ranking third, but they’ve also been top-five on offense. The Lakers? Just 25th in Offensive Rating.

I'm siding with the UNDER AND CLIPPERS on the ML.

take a look at Harrell and Morris on some props-
I like Harrell +14.5 points as this small ball experiment isn’t going great for Houston in the paint as they’re 29th in points in paint allowed since the All Star Break. Harrell is averaging 15 ppg and has topped this number in 6 of his last 7. He’s an offensive rebound machine as is Morris (+4.5 rebounds is a nice play too). Houston too small to win this game.

Bulls are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.

Bulls are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

T-Wolves are desperate for a win. While the Bulls beat the Timberwolves, 117-110, on January 22 to end a three-game losing streak in the series, I think the Wolves end their losing ways tonight.

Minnesota has won its last four home games against Chicago for its third longest active home winning streak against any opponent and Coby White will be outplayed by DLo.

The Bulls were somehow worse than Minny in February going 1-9 (vs Minny at 2-9). Still no Lavine for the Bulls.

Take Wizards +2 in the First Quarter, guys!

In their last 10 games, Wiz are 4th best point margin in 1st quarter vs Kings who are 21st. Beal is on fire, almost literally.
Sacremento is 26th in effective fg % in their last 10. Wiz are 5th in 3 pts hit in that same time frame.

Kings also play methodically, half court (for some odd reason). Oh and there's also this - Washignton is 1st in 1Q opponent turnover percentage in their last 10.

They've held up with good teams lately. Kings are a bad team.

The Sixers are just 9-22 on the road this season, riding an eight-game road losing streak into Tuesday’s matchup with the Lakers. They opened as 11.5-point underdogs, but with Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Josh Richardson injured, it’s difficult to see a silver lining from even an ATS perspective but if there is one, it's that they just covered in a high scoring affair with the other LA juggernaut at a similar line (12.5) losing 136-130.

I personally like the UNDER here with the Lakers as one of the best defensive units with or without Brow and the Sixers down 3 of their top 4 starters. I think it's a half-court style type of game that the Lakers ultimately win. The total has also gone UNDER in 9 of the last 13 games between these two and I don't see why the Lakers don't flex their muscle in this one.

One of these teams will handle business and the other will continue to be flat imo. Nuggets coming off a beatdown vs the Clippers and Raptors coming off a bad loss to the Hornets. Everyone expects a close game with this being the immediate history for winning teams but I think it would be too easy to say they both figure it out on a quick turnaround.

I'll take Denver at home in this one to win handily. Malone called his players soft after the beatdown to the Clippers and now they'll be up against a Toronto team that may be without Ibaka and Vanfleet. Toronto lost to Charlotte at home. Yikes.

Denver has covered 6 of their last 7 at home and win by an avg. of 6.1 points at home where they're 23-7 SU. Nugs bounce back/ Raptors woes continue.

Sixers are a bad road team and this kicks off a West Coast Slate that will be tough for them to find wins with both their all stars OUT (Embiid and Simmons). They only have nine road wins in their 30 away games.

Simmons is expected to be out at least ten more days, and Embiid will not be evaluated until next week so the team is aware of who they are going into this one.

I think Horford and Tobias Harris returning to his old stomping grounds are actually quite capable of leading the Sixers to a cover. LA will rotate and allow for the length of O'Quinn, Horford and Harris to bother Leonard and PG13 getting to the lane. I like Philly to keep it close and just barely cover but the #4 offense in the league will get hot in the 4th and get a comfortable win.

LAC 121 PHI 112

I don't think the Hornets can keep up. Over their last 10 games, CHA is 30th in Effective FG% and 29th in points per 100 possessions. In this same span, Giannis and co are 1st in both opponent EFG% and opponent points allowed per 100 possessions.

At the same time the Bucks are 21-4 straight up when playing as an away favorite and 12-7 record against the spread on the road against losing teams.

Charlotte has lost their last three games against the Bucks by more than 13 points. Only way you could really back Charlotte is if your confident starters rest early on a backend cover.

Clippers are 2-7 vs the bucks, Sixers, Rockets, nuggets, and jazz. A Clippers win deadlocks them at 1-1 with one game to go (March 18th in Denver). A Nuggets win secures them the season series and puts them 2 up in loss column. Conference record tiebreaker won't matter.

Gary Harris and Will Barton, are just 6’4 and 6’6 and more slight in stature. Can they play competent defense against Leonard and George? I personally don't think they can and certainly will have their troubles scoring as well. Joker should get his so look for his props but I personally like the Clippers -6 here based on wing play. Clippers fully healthy and this is the biggest game of the year likely for both teams as the season winds down.

Lavine and the Bulls were playing great defense all of January up until the last 3-4 game stretch. But you gotta play the over in this one based on trends and pace of play with Kyrie back.
Over is 4-0 in Nets last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Over is 4-1 in Nets last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 overall.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Raptors overvalued. They're in a tough spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days. This is a tired team right now that won’t be able to put the Pistons away. The Raptors are overvalued due to winning nine straight. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record. It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Pistons, who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games coming in.

Check out the tweet below and keep in mind the pace of play that the Bucks play is as fast as it gets while Denver is missing a lot of key players right now and play a much slower pace.

Oklahoma City has solid offensive weapons to work with and their group has really come together as the season has worn on. Phoenix has a good offense but their defense has left plenty to be desired this season. The Thunder stands 11th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 107.9 points per contest and Shai is getting overlooked as an all star just as much as Booker imo.

Saw the piece from SJ earlier and I couldn't agree more. Lebron and Co aren't the only ones that looked up to Kobe and Lillard has been playing like Mamba as of late. He ranks in the top ten now in scoring over a 4-game stretch. Anyone know if Rondo is in?

the bigger the number, the more success they’ve had covering. Overall as a dog, the Kings are 16-13-1 ATS which is good for a 55% cover rate. Those that bet daily understand the difficulties in picking standard juice winners at a 55% success rate so 16-13-1 might not seem like much to the average fan but to a gambler it’s pretty good. However, that cover rate jumps drastically when Sacramento is catching at least 7.5 points. In that spot, the Kings are 6-3 ATS so far in 2019-2020. That’s what we have here and at 13, this number is enough of an overreaction to last night’s Kings loss for us to hop on Sacramento.

Tatum being on a minutes limit actually may work in the Celtics' favor. He gets some run early, then Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, and Jaylen Brown take things from there as the Celtics (-13.5) cover to move to 5-1 against the spread in their last six games. I like the UNDER on the 223.5 point total: The Warriors have the NBA's fifth-worst offense, and the total has gone under in four of Boston's five contests.

Hornets are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Washington. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 7 games. This doesn't bode well on a 2 possession spread against a team that has scored over 260 points their last two outings against superior offensive talent. Charlotte has no chance. Bet of the night is Washington -4.