drpaul

-Seth Curry averaged 45% on 3 point shooting in regular season and is shooting 44.9% in eight playoff games. If Hawks defense sags to double on Embiid then Curry will cut them up.

- In the first two games of this series, Hawks shooting guard Kevin Huerter was lights out against the Sixers. He averaged 17.5 points, shooting 73.7% from the field, including 54.5% from three-point range.
Game 3 was a different story where he only made 3 three pointers. But I don't expect the 6-foot-7 third-year player from Maryland to have two bad shooting nights in a eow.

- The Sixers easily lead all teams in scoring during the playoffs at 123.6 points per game (Utah is second among active teams at 119.0), and Philadelphia’s pace of play is 101 possessions per game which is tops in the NBA.

Pick: This is a must win spot for Hawks and I think they get their offense going tonight, but if Philly gets off to a fast start I just don't see Atlanta being able to keep up. They just don't have an answer for Embiid down low. Combined with the fast pace of play, I'll lay the points and sprinkle the overs. Philly 118- Atlanta 112

The Jazz shot 65% effective field goal percentage and seven of the nine Utah players that ran in Game 2 scored at least 14 points. It was an offensive clinic by the Jazz and I expect more of the same today. Morant and Dillon Brooks aren’t getting enough help from the Grizzlies’ supporting cast, especially the other backcourt players, none of which are scoring more than 6.5 points per game.

OVER is the best play on the board. It has consistently hit in all three games during this first-round battle. We have had an average of 234.7 PPG in the three installments of this series so far. Until the total is set at 230 or higher, I'll keep hitting it.

The Suns are in a bit of a slump right now and the Nets are banged up and will be without some of their top players for this one, but they're still finding ways to compete. If both Tyler Johnson and Durant are out again today, I think you've got to take Phoenix and 1.5 points.

Don't look now but the Tigers are playing some pretty good basketball and Landers Nolley has looked unstoppable. Two evenly matched teams but I like Memphis to sneak out a win here...they might be w/o their 6th man Alex Lomax tonight (who is listed as questionable) but he hasn't been much of a scoring contributor this season. I like Nolley and Jeffries to do enough offensively for the Tigers against the Ponies 112th ranked defense.

The only way the Bears win this game is if they get a defensive or special teams touchdown or Green Bay has 3 turnovers and that might not even be enough. I think the Bears defense will be able to limit the Packers a bit in this one but can we trust the Bears' offense to score? I expect the Bears offense to look a lot like it has all season, maybe even worse with Foles out. Green Bay wins 23-13.

Dodgers starting pitcher for tonight has changed 3 times. So who’s starting?

This line opened at Arkansas State -3 and public money has trickled in on the Red Wolves moving the line to -3.5 at most Vegas shops.

Looking at the history, Arkansas State beat a good Big 12 school in Kansas State (35-31) and then turned around and count trounced by Coastal Caroline, who we saw last night is a pretty darn good football team. Then the Red Wolves righted the ship with a 50-27 victory over Central Arkansas before heading into the short week. Arkansas State defense has been unable to produce a pair of quality defensive performances back-to-back. In losses, the Red Wolves have allowed 219.5 rushing yards and 6.35 yards per play.

The Georgia State panthers have only played two games this season, losing to Louisiana Lafayette (31-34) and turned around and blew out East Carolina 49-29. The Panthers entered 2020 with an experienced roster overall but with question marks at two very important spots: quarterback and running back.

There's concern for Arkansas State's defense for bettors tonight, but from my extrapolation, all stats point to Arkansas State in this game as they have the better offense and should have just enough defense to slow down the big play makers of Georgia State. As this 72.5 total suggests this one should be a shootout, but 73 points is big number, so I'll lay something small on Arkansas St. -3 (-120) here tonight.

Two 3-0 Sun Belt foes go at it here tonight. Line opened at Louisiana-Lafayette -8 and public money trickling in on Coastal Carolina; line is -7.5 at most books.

Coastal Carolina is 3-0 and did beat a bad Big 12 team Kansas 38-23 and then thumped Ark. St. 52-23.

Louisiana-Lafayette has the best win here with opening win 31-14 of over #20 Iowa State and also beat a good Georgia St. team. Louisiana’s season-opening win over Iowa State gets more impressive with each passing Cyclone victory since.

Bottom line for me here is the Cajuns have played the better schedule and has a better defense but I'm not sleeping on Coastal Carolina's efficient aerial attack . Slight edge to Louisiana-Lafayette here but the 7.5 scares me as the you very well might get hooked.

The Chanticleers are strong enough up front on defense to keep the ULL offense on its heels and Louisiana has a raucous defense too. Both teams will probably be playing game control here so slight lean on UNDER 58.5.

For the fourth week in a row, the NFL is once again giving us an amazing game on Thursday night.

I'm sure Rypien and Darnold will bring the excitement tonight, but I'm leaning Jets here as too many injuries to Denver.

Betting on this game is a crap shoot. The Jets were drummed in Indianapolis Sunday, 36-7, and QB Sam Darnold threw two pick-six interceptions in the beating, so I have little confidence in NYJ and on the flip side the 0-3 Broncos are a bad team and riddled with injuries, as they will be without Von Miller, Drew Lock, Attaochu, and their RB Phillip Linsey.

I'll put something small on the UNDERS here as I don't see either offense being productive tonight and maybe slight lean on Jets.

Brandon Robinson being out with an ankle injury hurts North Carolina. Robinson has been UNC’s primary threat from 3-point range where he’s a 35% shooter. The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games. With Robinson out I think Notre Dame should win this game (and cover the low number) as long as they take care fo the basketball tonight.

This is such a tough game to predict because while Arizona isn’t particularly good, Arizona State isn’t really much better. As I see it, Arizona’s issue has been less about talent (though they aren’t great along the defensive front) than it is about injuries. Specifically, injuries along the offensive line have crippled an offense that at the very least could keep things competitive.

Assuming Arizona gets a couple of its injured linemen back, the Wildcats should be able to move the ball and put up points against the Sun Devils weak defense. Add in the fact that ASU isn’t built to score nor is really all that capable of blowing people out, and you have the makings of a close game.

***OVER 46.5*** This total has moved down from 53 to 46.5 as a reaction to the forecasted rain today, but the rain is forecasted to lighten up around kick off. Either way, I think Ian Book will be able to have a field day on this Stanford defense. Book has lit up good defenses this year (ie: Navy) and Stanford doesn't classify as a good defense. Notre Dame can score 50 by themselves -- rain or no rain.

The over 6.5 (+115) is worth a small wager given how uncertain Boston’s depth looks after the Torey Krug injury. It makes an impact but forces the Bruins to go more on the offense tonight.

Tough game to pick here, as this UNLV team is like a box of chocolates. After getting blown out by Wyoming they have looked improved last 2 weeks and just thumped Vandy...albeit Vandy is a one win team. Fresno State got beat up pretty bad by Air Force last week and I think the UNLV will be able to run the ball to score enough points to stay within earshot. Getting the hook at 14.5 sells me on the Running Rebels.

***OVER 7*** The Fins have won only won 3 of their last 12 games overall and their once 'ace' Caleb Smith hasn’t been sharp of late posting a dismal 5.66 ERA in his four starts this month. This total just seems low with both Castillo and Smith rocking 8 ERA's in their last 3 starts. Reds should win but not in love with the odds at -150, the value in this one is OVER 7.

Stroman has been solid for the Mets in back-to-back outings and I don't trust Darvish who has lost some steam after a strong month in July. Darvish has been lit up against the Giants and I think a desperate Mets team gets to him today. Slight lean on Mets +100.

Philly should be favored here but -300 odds just seems ridiculous. Normally I would leave this game alone but getting almost 3X on your money I think you have to take a flier on the Sox here today.

Detroit has put a lot of pressure on their pitching staff and Norris is one of those that is not a bad pitcher but what can he do. Washington is a mid tier team that just isn't consistent. I know they lost some people but I don't think that has led to them being inconsistent, I think it's just mental focus. They are good enough however to beat Detroit.

I like this sneaky play tonight: Dodgers-Rockies first 5 UNDER 7 -110
Also like...
Rangers tt OVER 3 1/2 -125
Mariners-Astros f5 OVER 5 -110
BOL

Arrieta allowed three runs in six innings in his last start, working himself out of a few jams. But his past nine starts have been a struggle, posting a 5.40 ERA in that stretch. Corbin’s current three-game losing streak matches the longest of his career, tying a streak from July-August 2016. During this three-start span, Corbin owns an 11.37 ERA with 13 strikeouts and seven walks. I'm waiting for this total to open, but if its 10 or less I will take the OVER's in game with stats pointing to a high scoring game.

This game is a coin flip with it being in Toronto. I'll take the 3 points tonight. Lightly.

Steph is bound to break out at any time and I don't see the Rockets being able to shoot as well as they have in the last two games, but I just don't trust this GSW team right now, there is dissension amongst the ranks and this team will be dismantled at the end of the season. And the Rockets just seem to matchup well as they have had the Warriors number this year. I like the 6 points in what should be a close game.

Considering how Morton has looked, the betting trends and Rays’ current form, I’m backing the under.

***ATLANTA +115*** Kluber has been extremely erratic over his three starts this year; in one he had 6.0 innings, seven hits and one earned, and in the other two he went just 6.0 innings with 10 earned on 14 hits. Aside from his one meltdown in Colorado (5.0 innings; six earned; five hits), Teheran has looked pretty good this year, with five earned over 16.0 total innings in his other three starts.

Going with Clippers +8.5. I don't care if Warriors are going to be locked in after blowing a 31 point lead. One game won't fix what happened there. On top of that, the emotional lesbian is out for season plus Clippers at home motivated to take the lead...I'm going with LA +8.5.

Philadelphia has been a very good team at home this season. The 76ers still have work to do to maintain home court in the opening round of the playoffs since they are just one game ahead of Boston. Embiid is still listed as questionable and that's a good sign for the 76ers. The Pacers are banged up with Domantas Sabonis and Tyreke Evans both questionable. Indiana has won just over half their games on the road this year but going into Philadelphia is a tough challenge. The 76ers smoked the Pacers by 24 in Indiana in the last meeting. I'll take the home team.

This one is going to be interesting. The Heat have been on a roll and Toronto has had a rough few weeks. Raptors are much safer than the Heat as far as playoffs go. The Heat is trying to beat out the Hornets, Magic and Wizards for the last playoff spot. Miami isn't a great home team but the Raptors are good on the road. Without VanVleet the Raptors haven't found anyone to step up and run strong offensive strikes. With Leonard and VanVleet out I have to take the Heat at home. They will play extra hard to get that last spot and the Raptors are already a shoe in so why risk injury at this point.