drfeelgood

Tagging Texas Southern +25 with the lightest of leans.

The Raptors are only 5-8 on the season but looked really good on both ends of the floor against Dallas on Monday, albeit against a tired and undermanned Mavericks squad. But just like the Mavs on Monday the Heat are coming into this game short handed and w/o Jimmy Butler. The absence of Butler sets up a big night for Raptors PF Pascal Siakam at both ends of the floor. I'll take Toronto here for the win and the cover.

Indiana has played close with Penn State, convincingly beat Rutgers and convincingly beat Michigan. Michael Penix Jr. is one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten and Michigan State will have their hands full with him, as well as their tough defense, I don’t see MSU getting it done.

Indiana wins by 10+ points and covers this spread, but buying it down to -7 (-120) just in case.

Am I crazy? Probably, but I’ve said this since the final seconds ticked off the clock in a 49-7 loss at Iowa: Michigan State will beat Indiana. Why? Because this season makes absolutely no sense so this would just fall in line with that. Michigan State is the underdog on its own turf which isn’t a surprise seeing as Indiana is ranked No. 10 in the country, but I just see this team pulling off an upset because Mel Tucker keeps these guys level-headed, just like he did after a Rutgers loss. This team plays well when no one thinks it’ll win. Final Score: Indiana 27, Michigan State 30..you heard it here first. :)

Coming to the game here Mississippi State is coming off of a loss, but it was a loss to Alabama which is understandable. Against a much weaker team, like Vanderbilt, the Bulldogs should be able to have a better day offensively. The Commodores have continued to struggle on both sides of the ball and have not played well on the offensive side of the ball at all and that should continue in this game here. Thick spread but MSU should roll Vandy up like a booger today.

The Trojans are my Pac-12 pick. But can anyone explain why this line is so high? Arizona State will be the second-best team in the Pac-12 South this year, and they’ve gotten better every year of Herm Edwards’ tenure. I expect this to be a thrilling all-sophomore QB battle and for it to very much be a fourth quarter game. … USC 35, Arizona State 28.

Kershaw went 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in 10 regular-season starts in 2020. He's 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in 4 playoff starts this fall.

Glasnow finished the regular season 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA in 11 starts. This postseason, he's 3-2 with a 6.08 ERA through 5 starts. Glasnow was shaky in Game 1, walking 6 and allowing 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. With that effort, Glasnow owns a Boeing ERA of 7.13 on a .808 OPS allowed over his last four starts.

LA Hot Bats + Kershaw + Shaky Glasnow = LA -1.5 RL +110

The D-backs have won four in a row and have suddenly been hitting the ball. The Rockies have a run differential that is 50 runs worse than the Diamondbacks. I like Weaver and the D-Backs but getting Colorado +150 is probably the value play here.

Getting the Sox +135 with Giolito??? Yes Please.

I’m not going to overthink this one and taking Kansas City in a decisive win. I expect a big game defensive line, namely Chris Jones. There should be some explosive moments from Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Travis Kelce. Also, look for Mecole Hardman to have a big punt return against a coverage unit that showed some signs of weakness in week 1.

This might be the only massive spread I really really like this weekend.. During his tenure as Clemson QB, Wake Forest might be Trevor Lawrences favorite team to play. The past two years Clemsons won this game 63-3 and 52-3. I'm actually surprised this line isn't higher just based on those scores and the fact that Wake is still trying to build a well rounded team. I'll go with the Tigers to get their 2020 season off to a hot start.

National television is going to be a heck of a stage for the entire country to realize that Clemson's defensive line is right back to 2017-18 levels of depth and dominance. They might be young but they are mean. Sophomore Tyler Davis is going to be one of the best interior defensive linemen in the country this season, fellow sophomore K.J. Henry is ready to be the next great Clemson pass rusher and the true freshman duo of Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy have "over-delivered" on their five-star promise according to Clemson's coaches. That group is going to run five or six deep with player that could start on any line in the conference, and it's going to cause all kinds of problems for Wake Forest in this matchup. Wake Forest will be lucky to score 10 points. This pick is more about Clemson's defense as I didn't even mention Trevor Lawrence. Just did. Boom.

UL Lafayette is coming off one of the best seasons in their history going 11-3 and beating Miami Ohio in their bowl game. However, they are a double-digit road dog in this game and last season they lost their only game facing a team from a Power 5 conference. The Ragin Cajuns look to repeat this season and they should have the offensive weapons to do it. The team ranked eighth in the nation last season in total yards has their senior QB Levi Lewis back, but one concern for the team is at the WR position with the top one from last season gone and the second leading one injured and out for this game. Fortunately ULL has the returning RB duo of Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas, who combined to rush for 1,967 yards with 25 TD last season. So look for ground and pound for Louisiana Lafayette (which could also produce a lower than expected score bringing the Unders in play here).

Iowa State comes into this season with high expectations after a disappointing 2019 where they only went 7-6 and were throttled in their bowl by Notre Dame, albeit ND was a stout team. Good news for the Cyclones is they get Brock Purdy back under center but they lost their leading WR from last season in Deshaunte Jones, but shouldn't be too much of a concern as they are pretty deep at receiver this year and RB Breece Hall is expected to get the lion's share of the carries in the backfield - last year as a freshman Hall led the ISU with 897 yards and averaged a legit 4.8 yards per carry. The main concerns for Iowa State are that they only return one starter on the offensive line and lost some key players on the defensive line. So with question marks on offensive line this could also lead to a lower than expected game.

Many of the betting trends point to UL Lafayette being the pick in this game and with question marks around the Iowa State offensive line I tend to agree. But Iowa State is poised for a big season and it will start with a convincing win over ULL. Purdy will have a good game, the Cyclones will pass all over the Cajuns secondary and while ULL will not get blown out I like ISU to do just enough to win and cover. The UNDER 56.5 pick is also worth a look.

The Clippers are heavy favorites against a Nuggets who are coming off a grueling Game 7 win against the Utah Jazz Tuesday night. L.A. last played Sunday when it finished off the Dallas Mavericks in six games. We have seen heavy favorites lose series openers so far in the bubble. This won’t be one of those times. Lay the points.

The Yankees have three of their big bats out of the lineup today, so they’ll have to manufacture runs. They’ll face a pitcher who isn’t terribly stretched out and won’t go deep into the game, while they have one of their aces on the bump. Of course, that didn’t mean much in the series opener when the Yankees lost with Gerrit Cole on the mound. I still like the Yankees to scratch out a low scoring win against Richards and the Rays. New York wins a 4-3 type of game.

Why is this total 224?? Both Miami and Milwaukee have yet to allow more than 115 points during their last four games of the playoffs. I'm following the trends and going UNDER tonight.

The 238 total feels about right considering how high-scoring these games have been in this series. The Clippers have scored at least 130 points in their last three games against the Mavericks and Dallas has scored 110 or more points in every game in this series. While the defensive intensity might turn up a notch in this pivotal Game 6, I'm following the trends and going OVER here.

Randy Dobnak has allowed five runs and 18 hits in his last 21.1 innings while Matthew Boyd has allowed 19 runs and 24 hits in his last 18.2 innings. The Minnesota Twins have a clear pitching advantage in this matchup, and Boyd is not somebody I would consider betting on. The Twins offense is also dew for a breakout and this is as good of time as any.