DAWHIZ

From Cincinnati

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The total here is set at 130.5 points. Both teams have reached and surpassed that number in 8 of their last 10 games. Following the trends here, I think both teams get us at least 65 points each here and this one goes over the number.

My Texas A&M vs Tennessee predictions:

txam 130.5 (-110)

Total Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

***PROP PLAY*** Brian Robinson Jr. Under 72.5 Rushing Yards (-140)

Brain Robinson Jr. has arguably been the focal point for Alabama’s offense the past month. The senior tailback has toted the rock 85 times in the Tide’s last four games, resulting in 113 yards per game on the ground.

But this is the Georgia run defense we’re talking about. The same unit that enters fourth against the run (82.3 YPG), fourth in yards per carry allowed (2.66 YPC) and first in terms of preventing runs of 20 and 30 yards or more.

That last statistic is key when you’re facing a player prop in this range. Robinson will have to grind it out against a stout UGA front, and it’s highly unlikely he can bank on a single run to get him halfway to his total.

It doesn’t hurt that UGA held him to 55 yards on 16 carries during the SEC title game and Alabama could be missing their right tackle and right guard for this game.

Love the Under 72.5 rushing tonight for Alabama's Brian Robinson Jr.

My Georgia vs Alabama predictions:

GEORGI -2.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

Two evenly matched teams, but I still don't trust the Bengals. Every time they've strung together two straight wins, they've lost the next game. Both Cincy and the Chargers are in the thick of things in a tight AFC playoff race (both division and wild card), so let's consider this a playoff game. While L.A.'s defense still struggles at times, their offense has risen to the occasion almost every week against good teams (the Ravens game was not good). I'll take the points here in what should be a tightly contested game and a battle down to the wire.

Chargers +3 (slight lean)

My Los Angeles vs Cincinnati predictions:

LAC +3 (-110)

Spread Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

They can't possibly do it again, can they? First, No. 2 Iowa. Then, No. 3 Michigan State. Now, No. 4 Ohio State?

Despite losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin, Purdue has gone on a tear through the Big Ten. And Ohio State has come back to earth, beating Penn State and Nebraska by nine points apiece.

Against Iowa, the Boilermakers toppled a house of cards, exposing a terrible offense for what it was. Against Michigan State, they capitalized on a weak secondary with well over 500 passing yards. I expect this Purdue team to do some damage against Ohio State through the air, and while I don't see Purdue keeping pace for 4 quarters I do think they do enough to hang around. I like buying this 20.5 up to +21 (-120) and taking the 3 TD.s

Prediction: Ohio State 38, Purdue 20

My Purdue vs Ohio St. predictions:

PURDUE +19 (-110)

Spread Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

The Cavaliers have allowed 37.6 points over their last seven games, even with a shutout of hapless Duke. Competent offenses have ripped through this defense like tissue paper, and Notre Dame has been much better on offense over the past month than it was early in the year.

With Virginia's QB Brennan Armstrong not expect to be 100% for this one (rib injuries), and a sieve for a defense, I think Notre Dame takes care of business on the road today. Look for ND RB Kyren Williams has another strong day running the ball against a defense that allows nearly 220 rushing yards per game and carries the Irish to victory.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Virginia 27

My Notre Dame vs Virginia predictions:

NOTRD -9 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

13 feels like a lot of points after TCU shocked Baylor last week. With TCU's Max Duggan out with a foot injury, nobody expected backup quarterback Chandler Morris to put up 531 combined passing and rushing yards in a 30-28 upset of the Bears.

But Oklahoma State's defense has been better than Baylor's, especially as of late. The Cowboys just held West Virginia to three points and 133 total yards, one week after limiting Kansas to three points and 143 total yards. No one has put up more than 24 points against them this season, and they've faced a handful of potent offenses, stifling each of Baylor, Texas and Iowa State.

There isn't much tape on Morris, but trust they'll find a way to slow him down if he gets another start. Also trust that TCU's defense will struggle, as it has allowed at least 28 points in eight consecutive games.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, TCU 17

My TCU vs Oklahoma St. predictions:

TCU -11.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

The 0-7 Lions aren't a good football team, but they play hard and they're due a break. The Eagles aren't a good team, either. In fact, they have scored a touchdown in the final five minutes in every one of their losses. Philly is a bad football team whose final score lines don't reflect how bad they actually are. And I'll take Goff over Jalen Hurts all day.

Pick: Detroit +3.5

My Philadelphia vs Detroit predictions:

PHI +3 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

Fluke. Getting more UNDER 59.5.

My Notre Dame vs Florida St. predictions:

NOTRD -7 (-110)

Spread Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

That half didn't end well for the Unders. SMH

Scherzer is making his Dodgers debut but LA will be without their other Washington acquisition in Trea Turner who is sidelined with COVID protocols. Houston has lost two in a row and they should be underdogs here with Odorizzi going up against Scherzer, but LA at -210 odds is too much too consider. Odorizzi has been a middle of the road pitcher but has the propensity to keep the Dodgers offense in check. Plus Scherzer could be a bit out of his comfort zone with new team and new setting and the recent whirlwind he has been through. Houston’s offense always gives them a punchers chance, even agains the like of Scherzer. I’ll take Houston +182 just as the value pick here.

My Houston vs Los Angeles predictions:

HOU +200

Moneyline Pick

$250

Risk

$500

Win

Chris Paddack hasn’t panned out to be the pitcher the Padres hoped he’d become. Paddack comes into his start in Atlanta with a 5.49 ERA on the season, a number that has gotten progressively worse over the course of this season. He’s given up 25 earned runs in 29.1 innings across his past seven outings, earning a win in his last start only because he was able to slog through five innings while his offense came through for 24 runs. At this point, the best the Padres can hope from him is to be an average, middle-of-the-rotation kind of guy, but even that seems like somewhat of a stretch after his last month.

The Padres most likely won’t score 24 runs or even half that behind Paddack this time. They’ll be facing a pitcher they’ve never seen before: big Braves lefty Kyle Muller. Muller has struggled with command early on, but he’s proven difficult to hit. The offense in this game is pretty much a push but Atlanta does have clear advantage with starting pitching and better bullpen. ATL -1.5 (RL)

My San Diego vs Atlanta predictions:

SD +1.5 (-160)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$313

Win

Keegan Akin has been worse than just about any starting pitcher in baseball over the past month. He’s given up at least four runs in each of his past six outings, pitching to a 12.21 ERA in that stretch. Flat terrible. He’s allowed opponents to hit at a .332 clip against him this year, and even the anemic offense of the Rays should be able to light him up. I like the OVERS in this game and don't be afraid of the Ryas -1.5 RL.

My Baltimore vs Tampa Bay predictions:

BAL -1.5 (-120)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$417

Win

It’s hard to trust the Nets right now after they dropped four straight, even coming off their win over the Nuggets.The Bulls have been tough to beat in the last week, especially given their 22-point win over the Celtics as 4-point underdogs. This is another game the Bulls could win out right, give me the 6 points and put $50 on the +175 ML.

My Brooklyn vs Chicago predictions:

BKN +6 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

Kershaw has a major edge over the struggling Gray in the starting pitching matchup and LA has the edge with their pen in this spot - L.A., used just three relievers Tuesday with the Reds using five.

Pick: LA -1.5 (-120)

My Cincinnati vs Los Angeles predictions:

CIN -203

Moneyline Pick

$250

Risk

$123

Win

If deGrom wasn’t on the hill for the Mets, the Red Sox would be the play as they’re a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road this season. DeGrom, who is coming of a 15-K, complete-game, 2-hit shutout of the Nationals, shouldn’t have a problem stifling Boston’s bats. Pivetta has pitched well for the BoSox, but he won’t be able to keep pace with the Mets ace.

Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (-125)

My Boston vs New York predictions:

BOS -250

Moneyline Pick

$500

Risk

$200

Win

Minnesota has been terrible against the spread this year and if Detroit doesn't win this game, I think it comes down to a late field goal either way. I'll take the points.

My Minnesota vs Detroit predictions:

MIN +4 (-110)

Spread Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

I think we see some points in this one, 54 feels low here.

My Baylor vs West Virginia predictions:

BAYLOR 54 (-110)

Total Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

@DaWhiz

1 Y 8 MO

UTSA is 3-0 and are a 21 point underdog? There's little doubt the Roadrunners are pumped by their early-season success. A 4-0 start would be nice for UTSA but likely not in the cards as they step up in competition this week against an explosive UAB offense. But still 21 points just feels a bit overzealous, I'll take a shot with the points here (slight lean).

Georgia State +1? Las Vegas you must be crazy. Georgia State has some momentum after taking a top-20 opponent to overtime before ultimately falling short, and now the Panthers will host an East Carolina team looking to rebound from a 23-point home loss. With both teams' defensive woes from last season continuing into 2020, points should not be hard to find in this one. I think Vegas missed the mark in this one, I've got Georgia State winning a 37-23 type of game.

My East Carolina vs Georgia State predictions:

E.CAR +1 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

Ray appears to have recovered from a blister issue that caused him to leave a start early and then limited him to just two-thirds of an inning against the Mets. Last time out he showed no ill effects and looked sharp - allowed just one run over six innings. San Diego is rolling out Garrett Richards who allowed three runs over 3 2/3 innings Monday at Milwaukee in his first appearance since undergoing Tommy John surgery. I predict Richards will be on a pitch count and won't see more than 3 innings. Give Arizona the slight edge with their bats and their starter and their pen. Lay the -130 number.

My Arizona vs San Diego predictions:

ARI -130

Moneyline Pick

$100

Risk

$77

Win

DOG OF THE DAY - Texas +165. The Ranger's have their ace Lance Lynn on the mound and Tanner Roark hasn't looked sharp in his last two starts. I like Texas to snap their losing streak here and get the W. Big value with the +165 odds in this one.

My Texas vs Oakland predictions:

TEX +165

Moneyline Pick

$100

Risk

$165

Win

Verlander has struck out at least 10 batters in four consecutive starts and has only given up 1 earned run in last 19 innings of work. There's a reason why Houston is a 4X fav in this spot, you just simply can't bet against the Stro's with Verlander on the bump combined with the potent Houston offense. I fully expect Houston to light up Wojciechowski today and while I don't see 23 runs like we saw in Houston's last game, do predict they hit double digits. Houston wins a 12-2 type of game in a blowout.

My Houston vs Baltimore predictions:

HOU 10 (-110)

Total Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

@DaWhiz

2 Y 10 MO

On the surface, it’s crazy that the New York Mets, easily the hottest team in baseball, are underdogs AT HOME with one of the best young arms in baseball (Stroman) starting for them. The love for Washington comes from their starter (Strasburg) but that’s only if you’re counting on him to bounce back from his worst start of the season, where he allowed NINE earned runs against a mediocre D-Backs offense. He may not get lit up on Friday, but history tells us that August is Strasburg’s kryptonite! Be careful fading Strasburg here today, I like the Nats.

rollercoaster of a pick

Holder will make his first start of the season -- and second of his career -- to open against the Orioles tonight. Holder has a 6.28 ERA in 33 appearances this year, and one interesting factoid is that the Yankees are 10-0 when using an opener so far this season. Wojciechowski took a step in the wrong direction in his last outing after two brilliant starts, allowing four runs in a loss to Toronto. He’s still impressing the O’s with his swing-and-miss stuff, the 30-year-old right-hander fanning 10.9 batters per nine innings in seven games with Baltimore. The odds in this one have swelled to Yankees -270 so not a lot of value for bettors here today, might put something small on the UNDER 11 if forced to bet it.

Dylan Cease turned in the longest outing of his brief career Thursday, tossing seven innings against the Mets. Though he allowed four runs, he showcased his potential in a game in which he received zero run support. Norris has allowed just three runs on 13 hits over his last three starts, striking out 16 batters over 15 1/3 innings. With two anemic offenses and two pitchers that are better than their ERA's, I like the UNDER 10.5 in this one.

My Chicago vs Detroit predictions:

CHW 10.5 (-110)

Total Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

Soroka was cruising against the Phillies on Friday before his night ended early thanks to a 37-pitch fifth inning in which he recorded only two outs. Still, he allowed just one run over 4 2/3 innings and is 6-0 with a 1.19 ERA on the road. On the other side, Anibal Sanchez is on the hill for Washington today. This will be Sanchez’s fourth start this season against his old team, and he is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in his first three outings against them. He has won six straight decisions since May 29. Sanchez has been on a roll but I would lean Soroka and the Braves offense in this spot and I also trust Atlant's pen more than the Nats. The UNDER 10 is also worth a look in what sets up to be a pitcher's duel today.

My Atlanta vs Washington predictions:

ATL -117

Moneyline Pick

$100

Risk

$85

Win

ATL 10 (-110)

Total Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

It's only 385 feet to dead center field in London Stadium. Both pitchers have been decent on the year and have tried to keep the ball in the park. New York has homered in a franchise-record 28 consecutive games entering this one and you have to think that the long ball is going to be a factor in this one. The Bronx Bombers will be able to get to Porcello in this one. Yankees First 5 Innings and OVER 11.5.

My New York vs Boston predictions:

NYY -143

Moneyline Pick

$100

Risk

$70

Win

NYY 11.5 (-110)

Total Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

@DaWhiz

2 Y 11 MO

Only 385 to center but HUGE foul ball area. Bigger than Oak. I've got the Unders.

Only 385 to center but HUGE foul ball area. Bigger than Oak. Strong lean to under 11.5.

***DOG OF THE DAY*** - Not sure why Vegas is Brewers as such a heavy favorite here; Anderson is coming off a poor start against the Reds in which he allowed six earned runs across five innings. Leake has maintained ad better ERA then Anderson this season and while he was roughed up in last start against Baltimore, the veteran right-hander is 4-0 with a 3.82 ERA in his last five starts. And Seattle has been tearing the cover off the ball offensively - Love the plus money in this matchup.

My Seattle vs Milwaukee predictions:

SEA +168

Moneyline Pick

$100

Risk

$168

Win

Edwin Encarnacion debut tonight and the Yankees are stock piling talent, but they will have their hands full against Chirinos tonight. Under 9 and something small on Tampa Bay +125

Nats have struggled against righties and I don't trust this Washington offense. The plus money is tempting but Corbin has been good of late. I think the best value bet is with UNDER 9.5 in what sets up to be a low scoring game.

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