Scherzer is making his Dodgers debut but LA will be without their other Washington acquisition in Trea Turner who is sidelined with COVID protocols. Houston has lost two in a row and they should be underdogs here with Odorizzi going up against Scherzer, but LA at -210 odds is too much too consider. Odorizzi has been a middle of the road pitcher but has the propensity to keep the Dodgers offense in check. Plus Scherzer could be a bit out of his comfort zone with new team and new setting and the recent whirlwind he has been through. Houston’s offense always gives them a punchers chance, even agains the like of Scherzer. I’ll take Houston +182 just as the value pick here.
Chris Paddack hasn’t panned out to be the pitcher the Padres hoped he’d become. Paddack comes into his start in Atlanta with a 5.49 ERA on the season, a number that has gotten progressively worse over the course of this season. He’s given up 25 earned runs in 29.1 innings across his past seven outings, earning a win in his last start only because he was able to slog through five innings while his offense came through for 24 runs. At this point, the best the Padres can hope from him is to be an average, middle-of-the-rotation kind of guy, but even that seems like somewhat of a stretch after his last month.
The Padres most likely won’t score 24 runs or even half that behind Paddack this time. They’ll be facing a pitcher they’ve never seen before: big Braves lefty Kyle Muller. Muller has struggled with command early on, but he’s proven difficult to hit. The offense in this game is pretty much a push but Atlanta does have clear advantage with starting pitching and better bullpen. ATL -1.5 (RL)
Keegan Akin has been worse than just about any starting pitcher in baseball over the past month. He’s given up at least four runs in each of his past six outings, pitching to a 12.21 ERA in that stretch. Flat terrible. He’s allowed opponents to hit at a .332 clip against him this year, and even the anemic offense of the Rays should be able to light him up. I like the OVERS in this game and don't be afraid of the Ryas -1.5 RL.
It’s hard to trust the Nets right now after they dropped four straight, even coming off their win over the Nuggets.The Bulls have been tough to beat in the last week, especially given their 22-point win over the Celtics as 4-point underdogs. This is another game the Bulls could win out right, give me the 6 points and put $50 on the +175 ML.
Kershaw has a major edge over the struggling Gray in the starting pitching matchup and LA has the edge with their pen in this spot - L.A., used just three relievers Tuesday with the Reds using five.
If deGrom wasn’t on the hill for the Mets, the Red Sox would be the play as they’re a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road this season. DeGrom, who is coming of a 15-K, complete-game, 2-hit shutout of the Nationals, shouldn’t have a problem stifling Boston’s bats. Pivetta has pitched well for the BoSox, but he won’t be able to keep pace with the Mets ace.
Minnesota has been terrible against the spread this year and if Detroit doesn't win this game, I think it comes down to a late field goal either way. I'll take the points.
UTSA is 3-0 and are a 21 point underdog? There's little doubt the Roadrunners are pumped by their early-season success. A 4-0 start would be nice for UTSA but likely not in the cards as they step up in competition this week against an explosive UAB offense. But still 21 points just feels a bit overzealous, I'll take a shot with the points here (slight lean).
Georgia State +1? Las Vegas you must be crazy. Georgia State has some momentum after taking a top-20 opponent to overtime before ultimately falling short, and now the Panthers will host an East Carolina team looking to rebound from a 23-point home loss. With both teams' defensive woes from last season continuing into 2020, points should not be hard to find in this one. I think Vegas missed the mark in this one, I've got Georgia State winning a 37-23 type of game.
Ray appears to have recovered from a blister issue that caused him to leave a start early and then limited him to just two-thirds of an inning against the Mets. Last time out he showed no ill effects and looked sharp - allowed just one run over six innings. San Diego is rolling out Garrett Richards who allowed three runs over 3 2/3 innings Monday at Milwaukee in his first appearance since undergoing Tommy John surgery. I predict Richards will be on a pitch count and won't see more than 3 innings. Give Arizona the slight edge with their bats and their starter and their pen. Lay the -130 number.
DOG OF THE DAY - Texas +165. The Ranger's have their ace Lance Lynn on the mound and Tanner Roark hasn't looked sharp in his last two starts. I like Texas to snap their losing streak here and get the W. Big value with the +165 odds in this one.
Verlander has struck out at least 10 batters in four consecutive starts and has only given up 1 earned run in last 19 innings of work. There's a reason why Houston is a 4X fav in this spot, you just simply can't bet against the Stro's with Verlander on the bump combined with the potent Houston offense. I fully expect Houston to light up Wojciechowski today and while I don't see 23 runs like we saw in Houston's last game, do predict they hit double digits. Houston wins a 12-2 type of game in a blowout.
On the surface, it’s crazy that the New York Mets, easily the hottest team in baseball, are underdogs AT HOME with one of the best young arms in baseball (Stroman) starting for them. The love for Washington comes from their starter (Strasburg) but that’s only if you’re counting on him to bounce back from his worst start of the season, where he allowed NINE earned runs against a mediocre D-Backs offense. He may not get lit up on Friday, but history tells us that August is Strasburg’s kryptonite! Be careful fading Strasburg here today, I like the Nats.
Holder will make his first start of the season -- and second of his career -- to open against the Orioles tonight. Holder has a 6.28 ERA in 33 appearances this year, and one interesting factoid is that the Yankees are 10-0 when using an opener so far this season. Wojciechowski took a step in the wrong direction in his last outing after two brilliant starts, allowing four runs in a loss to Toronto. He’s still impressing the O’s with his swing-and-miss stuff, the 30-year-old right-hander fanning 10.9 batters per nine innings in seven games with Baltimore. The odds in this one have swelled to Yankees -270 so not a lot of value for bettors here today, might put something small on the UNDER 11 if forced to bet it.
Dylan Cease turned in the longest outing of his brief career Thursday, tossing seven innings against the Mets. Though he allowed four runs, he showcased his potential in a game in which he received zero run support. Norris has allowed just three runs on 13 hits over his last three starts, striking out 16 batters over 15 1/3 innings. With two anemic offenses and two pitchers that are better than their ERA's, I like the UNDER 10.5 in this one.
Soroka was cruising against the Phillies on Friday before his night ended early thanks to a 37-pitch fifth inning in which he recorded only two outs. Still, he allowed just one run over 4 2/3 innings and is 6-0 with a 1.19 ERA on the road. On the other side, Anibal Sanchez is on the hill for Washington today. This will be Sanchez’s fourth start this season against his old team, and he is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in his first three outings against them. He has won six straight decisions since May 29. Sanchez has been on a roll but I would lean Soroka and the Braves offense in this spot and I also trust Atlant's pen more than the Nats. The UNDER 10 is also worth a look in what sets up to be a pitcher's duel today.
It's only 385 feet to dead center field in London Stadium. Both pitchers have been decent on the year and have tried to keep the ball in the park. New York has homered in a franchise-record 28 consecutive games entering this one and you have to think that the long ball is going to be a factor in this one. The Bronx Bombers will be able to get to Porcello in this one. Yankees First 5 Innings and OVER 11.5.
***DOG OF THE DAY*** - Not sure why Vegas is Brewers as such a heavy favorite here; Anderson is coming off a poor start against the Reds in which he allowed six earned runs across five innings. Leake has maintained ad better ERA then Anderson this season and while he was roughed up in last start against Baltimore, the veteran right-hander is 4-0 with a 3.82 ERA in his last five starts. And Seattle has been tearing the cover off the ball offensively - Love the plus money in this matchup.
Edwin Encarnacion debut tonight and the Yankees are stock piling talent, but they will have their hands full against Chirinos tonight. Under 9 and something small on Tampa Bay +125
Nats have struggled against righties and I don't trust this Washington offense. The plus money is tempting but Corbin has been good of late. I think the best value bet is with UNDER 9.5 in what sets up to be a low scoring game.
Atlanta has 9 out of 10 but I think there is too much market over reaction to the public betting here. I like Wheeler here and NYM first 5 innings (+145).
Run Line has value here at (+100). The Dodgers are tough at home, winning 26 of 33 and I like Rich Hill, who has allowed just two earned runs in his last 17 innings. Two good offenses going at it but I think the unders are also worth a look. LA wins 5-2 type of game.
Sampson coming off a great start against Kansas City, only giving up 1 run in 7 innings pitched. The Rangers have fared better on their home field this season. It also helps that they have one of the league’s more productive offenses. I'm a little befuddled by the value Vegas is giving to Oakland here today. At 2X on your money you've got to take a flyer on Texas today.
Marquez is solid but the Pirates is a hot-hitting team (despite being ranked 25th offensively) and I think the offense can make up for any Archer miscues and should give the Pirates bullpen enough of a lead that their eight blown saves this season can’t mess up. Give me the plus money with Pittsburgh at home today.
Lopez got rocked in his last start giving up 10 runs in 3 innings in last start, and the Marlins are just not bettable. We are getting good value here with NY at only -117. Wind is blowing directly in from left field 15MPG so won't see many long balls today but I still like think this total of 7.5 is set too low.
***OVER 8*** This total is set low for a reason with two aces going at it here tonight. But both Syndergaard and Hellickson have both looked human this year and I don't trust the Nats pen which has an ERA over 6. Wind blowing in 12-14 mpg tonight at Nationals park, but I still like the OVER 8 here tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the only players in Bucks history to record consecutive playoff games with 30+ points and 10+ rebounds
