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This Notre Dame front seven has a chance to feast. On offense, not having Kyren Williams will be a blow, but Jack Coan will be the most important player for the Irish on that side. He needs to get the ball out of his hands quick to avoid the dangerous Cowboys’ pass rush and put it in the hands of Kevin Austin and Michael Mayer. I would not be surprised to see Tommy Rees open up the offense a little and use a lot of 11 personnel out of shotgun and sling it around the yard early. No team has rushed for more than 4.3 yards per carry in any game this season against Oklahoma State and as much as the Irish offensive line has come along, this will be a pass first game and I just don't trust Spencer Sanders to out duel Jack Coan.

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Oklahoma State 20

You can't bet on this San Jose State offense. It collapsed against Utah State, the passing attack has been wildly inconsistent, and turnovers have been a disaster. Fresno State will be more balanced and sharper.

Ohio State 52, Michigan State 35

Michigan State has before spoiled Ohio State’s national championship aspirations, especially as a team ranked in the top 10, and it has enough playmakers on offense to keep Saturday’s game close. But the game should ultimately tilt in the Buckeyes’ favor. The Spartans have too many holes in their secondary for quarterback C.J. Stroud and a dynamic receiving trio not to take advantage with an avalanche of points.

Pick OVER 68.5

Here is where we find out how good Cincinnati's secondary is.

The numbers so far for Cinci are great. The Bearcats have 16 interceptions against just six passing touchdowns allowed, and they are leading the nation in defensive passer efficiency rating.

But who is the best quarterback they've faced? UCF's Dillon Gabriel was out for that game, as was Tulane's Michael Pratt. Notre Dame was smack dab in the middle of its QB controversy when that game happened in early October. So, Indiana's Michael Penix Jr. before he hurt his shoulder? Maybe?

Suffice it to say, SMU's Tanner Mordeca who averages 326.4 passing yards and 3.7 passing touchdowns per game will be the stiffest test for a Cincinnati team that hasn't exactly been thriving as of late. The Mustangs are sixth in the nation in scoring at 41.6 points per game, and they've had a pair of games in the past month with at least 600 total yards and 55 points.

Shutting this team down for a 20-14 type of win seems next to impossible. But Desmond Ridder and Jerome Ford should be able to put up a good number of points against this SMU defense. Cincinnati stays undefeated, but it will come down to the wire.

Prediction: Cincinnati 34, SMU 28

In five games against teams that are currently .500 or worse, the Terrapins are a perfect 5-0. In five games against teams with winning records, they are 0-5 with an average margin of defeat of 28.0 points per game. I mean, they don't even make things interesting against good teams, and Michigan surely qualifies.

The Wolverine's offense should have no problem with a defense that has allowed at least 31 points in six consecutive games and an offense that has been hopelessly unable to establish the run. Big Blue should roll against this hapless Terrapins team.

Prediction: Michigan 45, Maryland 17

The Aggies ran for 303 yards and threw for 292 in the 41-10 win over Kent State. The defense did its part by holding the high-octane Golden Flash attack to just three points before allowing a fourth quarter TD. The Aggies started slow last week as it was just 10-3 at halftime, but Texas A&M won by 31 despite giving up the ball five times with four interceptions. The Aggies got away with 5 turnovers against Ken St. but to that can’t happen against the Buffaloes.

Colorado beat Northern Colorado 35-7 with the running game rolling at will, and QB Brandon Lewis getting his feet wet with an efficient game to go along with a few nice runs. The Buffs have enough of a pass rush to bother A&M QB Haynes King and try pressuring him into mistakes, and the offense should be able to control the clock a wee bit and do a good job of playing to the Aggie style.

Prediction: The Aggies will take care of the ball this week and there won’t be the five turnovers like there were last week. This defense for A&M is legit and the explosion of the high-end skill players will shut down the Buffs and the defensive front will be all over Lewis and Broussard from the start. This will be the game when people really start talking about Texas A&M as a contender for the Playoffs. I like the Aggies to win a 42-17 type of game and cover the 17 point spread.

The total keeps hanging around this number in the mid-230s, but I have not seen anything to suggest that this game is going to come in anywhere near that number based on how the first two games of the series have played out. Under 234.

The Unders is worth a look here, especially in a Game 7. Even for the most grizzled veterans a decisive Game 7 will mean ratcheted up defense and tired jelly legs on offense. The Under has connected in three in a row in this series, so why stop now.

Keven Porter Jr. was the only bright spot offensively for Houston and he's likely out (or at least limited) with a sprained ankle tonight. Without him in the lineup this will be a complete beatdown.

***Arizona (-115) FIRST 5 innings***

Bumgarner’s first three starts were ugly, but in his last two he allowed just one run on two hits, including 7 hitless innings. He started once against the Rockies earlier this season at Colorado, and allowed 5 ER in 5 IP. Gray’s swinging strike rate is pretty low, but he has recorded six strikeouts in each of his last two starts.

Looking at the trends...the Rockies are 1-9 on the road this season while averaging just 2.4 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have been red-hot lately, winning eight of their last 10 games.

Pick: Not a big Bumgarner fan but this is more of a bet on Arizona the team, I like them to stay hot here and chip away at Gray.

Lu Dort had a coming out party against the Celtics scoring 24 points. Pelicans will be playing on the second night of a back. I'll take my chances with the points, OKC should have a bounce in their step tonight.

The Clippers are coming off a loss though against the Pelicans and they are banged up. Kawhi Leonard will be out for this game and Paul George is questionable. The Clippers will struggle to score enough to keep up with the Suns....especially if Paul George is a no go tonight.

The Miami Heat have had some real issues so far this season but they did play the Spurs four games ago and the defense locked down in that game giving up only 87 points and that led to the blowout victory. The Heat’s defense is going to lock down again in this game and the Spurs will have no answer.

The Hawks are playing this on zero days’ rest and they’ll likely be shorthanded once again without Trae Young, but the good news is they do get back Clink Capella tonight. Atlanta continues tow in without Trae Young and even with him out the Hawks are clearly the team.

The Bruins enter on a 4-game skid. They closed the regular season with losses at Colorado, at Oregon and in the finale to USC at home on a last-second shot. They were then eliminated by Oregon State 83-79 in their first game of the Pac-12 Tournament. While these Spartans aren’t your typical Spartans team, it’s hard to go against head coach Tom Izzo in March. Fading UCLA has been profitable in 2021 as they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games. State is only a 15 win team but they closed the season hot and beat 3 top 10 teams down the stretch.

Oklahoma is coming off a clunker against a Kansas State thats also good at keeping scores low and the tempo down, but doesn't have the talent of OSU and isn't nearly as strong. This is a game the Cowboys can win out right or at least should be close, I like the 5 points here.

Ken Pomeroy ranks Ohio St 16 vs Purdue 26 and suggests Purdue could win by 3. In fact, when adjusted for strength of schedule, Purdue is ranked 111 to Ohio State’s 256. Yikes!

They are both 5-3 in Big 10 play and both are riding 3-game win streaks. Plus, Purdue beat Ohio State, last month, 67-61.
So why, given all that, do I favor Ohio State?

Ohio State is perfect at home, this season, while Purdue is awful on the road.

Yes, 2 of their wins last week were road games but the victory over MI St. was a minuscule one-point win. I know...a W is a W but against MI State? Seems kind of puny to me.

Purdue had road losses to Rutgers and Illinois. Ohio State beat both of them in their road games. So, common opponents show OS can beat quality teams that Purdue could not.

Since some fans are being allowed in stadiums now, home court should mean a little something still. And, I can’t help but feel Purdue will keep a little in the tank for Friday game vs. Michigan.

I went with the under because the Dec 16 score between the two was in the 120’s and expect something in the same neighborhood, with a different result, of course.

I have to take the Rockets given the Magic’s injury situation. Not only is rookie PG Cole Anthony replacing Fultz but the other backup PG in Carter-Williams is out and Fournier is dealing with a back issue. Good spot for Houston here to get a W and cover.

INDIANA -9 - This Ole Miss offense is a juggernaut, or should I say WAS a juggernaut, because much of the Ole Miss offense that posted those numbers won’t be playing on Saturday. The Rebels’ top two receivers, wideout Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah both opted out before their last game of the season. Not make things worse, leading running back Jerrion Ealy and third leading wide receiver Braylon Sanders both suffered injuries in the regular season finale against LSU. Neither appear to be ready to return. Moore, Sanders and Yeboah accounted for 67% of the Rebels’ receiving yards this season. This doesn't bode well against a Indiana team that beat Rutgers, Michigan, Wisconsin and played Ohio State to a 7 point game.

Am I crazy? Probably, but I’ve said this since the final seconds ticked off the clock in a 49-7 loss at Iowa: Michigan State will beat Indiana. Why? Because this season makes absolutely no sense so this would just fall in line with that. Michigan State is the underdog on its own turf which isn’t a surprise seeing as Indiana is ranked No. 10 in the country, but I just see this team pulling off an upset because Mel Tucker keeps these guys level-headed, just like he did after a Rutgers loss. This team plays well when no one thinks it’ll win. Final Score: Indiana 27, Michigan State 30..you heard it here first. :)

Don't let South Florida's scare of Memphis last week fool you. South Florida gave up 535 yards of total offense in that game and Memphis isn't a very good team to begin with. Houston got beat last week against Cinci but they are better team than they showed last week.

I like Houston to cover this 14 in a shootout but like the OVER 57.5 as the value bet here. Houston wins a 42-24 type of game.

Iowa has had at least one pick-six in 13 straight seasons.

Crazy stat.

I've thought Cleveland had been skating by all season and they showed their true colors last week. The Browns are coming off a 38-7 setback at the Pittsburgh Steelers, ending a four-game winning streak in rough fashion. Cleveland is really missing RB Nick Chubb and you expect Mayfield to regroup here but I'm just not sold on this Cleveland team.

Joe Burrow is coming off his best game of the season and I'm leaning Bengals and the 3 points here but with John Ross out and Joe Nixon out for Cinci, they are hard to back in this spot.

While not in love with this game, I think the UNDER 50 is our best bet here. Cleveland will also be without Chubb and also TE Austin Hooper and Cinci without their top WR and RB. Combined with Cleveland's defense and Cleveland's lack of offensive production, I think this matchup sets up for a lower than expected scoring game.

The Chiefs lost 40-32 at home to Vegas in Week 5 but bounced back with a 26-17 road win over a good Buffalo Bills team last week. The Broncos have won two straight games against AFC East teams on either side of a forced Week 5 bye. They beat the New York Jets 37-28 on Thursday Night Football in Week 4 and surprised with a win over New England 18-12 on the road in Week 6.

I'm not betting money on a sophomore QB against the best QB on the planet. KC hasn't been sharp last couple weeks but I think they should have their way with Denver, I predict this one busts open in the second half and the Chiefs win by double digits.

Looking at past results, these teams have 1 common team in East Carolina. Tulsa beat East Carolina 49-24 and South Florida lost to East Carolina 44-24. Extrapolate out these results in a vacuum and Tulsa wins by 45 points here tonight.

I know this sound a bit too linear but bottom line is South Florida is a god awful team and they lost to ECU by 20 points, so Tulsa should roll here tonight.

OVER 46 POINTS is free money. And I'm so confident this one goes over that the OVER 53.5 prop (+165) is worth sprinkling $20 on.

We want points, points and more points. The Rams had one of those weird games against the Giants last week. It felt like their timing was just off the entire day. Jared Goff missed some big throws, L.A. receivers dropped some huge passes and the Rams even fumbled the ball twice. It happens. I'll gladly bet on the McGenius in a bounce back spot going back to Washington, where he worked on their staff for six years. He's going to pull out all the stops here to get on the scoreboard.

$20 Ezekiel Elliott to score 2+ touchdowns (+100)

I really believe the Cowboys find their mojo this weekend against the dreadful Giants. This is one of those spots where Dallas should feast on poor competition and win by a couple scores. Zeke scored two touchdowns in the first game of the season against the Rams and he's already got four scores in four games. I'm banking on one and hoping for one more.

Phil Steele's Picks Today:

Texas+2.5 vs Oklahoma
NC State+8 vs Virginia
WKU+7.5 vs Marshall
TCU-8.5 vs Kansas State
Jacksonville St-7.5 vs Mercer

Anyone here going with Under? I feel like this game might come down to the final drive but the value bet might be going UNDER.

The Lakers are the best team money can buy. Let’s see if the Nuggets can ruin the party by actually drafting and developing their own players rather than having some other team do it GM for them. Let's go #Nuggets.