The Brewers bats are hot, plating 9,12,7, and 9 runs in their last 4 games, all of which were wins. Combine that with a pitcher who’s been a stud all year long and we’re looking at a winner on Saturday. Brandon Woodruff enters with a ridiculous 2.14 ERA in 126 innings pitched. He’s been a model of consistency, only allowing more than 3 earned runs on 2 occasions all season. Kyle Muller has pitched well in a very small sample size. Let’s take the hot team with a proven starter at a decent price. Take the Brewers.
$250 MIL -140
The Diamondbacks continue to be one of the biggest “fade” teams in all of baseball despite winning some games since the All Star break. They simply don’t possess to personnel to compete for long stretches. Enter Zach Gallen, who was blown up for 7 earned runs in just 4 innings against the Cubs in his last start. On the other side we have Tony Gonsolin, who has done a fantastic job when asked to start this season. Gonsolin didn’t allow a run in 5.1 innings in his latest start. But it’s not just the starters we’re betting on. From an analytics standpoint, LA is better in almost every category. Take the Dodgers.
$500 LA -200 • $250 LA -1.5 (-130)
The Mets enter Wednesday with a 31-17 record and home, but the big story is how the betting markets have failed to adjust to how well Tylor Megill has thrown. Megill may have only pitched 30 innings, but he sure has made the most of them. He has a 2.10 ERA and hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 starts. The 2 prior to those he allowed just 1 run in each. On the flip side we have Max Fried, a guy who has been extremely inconsistent. Fried allowed 4 earned over 5 innings against the Phillies in his last start. Take the Mets.
$250 NYM -123
Both the A’s and Padres will look to end losing streaks when they meet for a short 2 game set beginning Tuesday. We’re getting very good value on Oakland, who will send James Kaprielian to the mound. Kaprielian has a 2.65 ERA on the season and didn’t allow a run in his last start, which lasted 6 innings. Chris Paddack had a solid last start, but allowed 4 runs the start prior. He’s been inconsistent all year long and we’re getting a great price. Take the A’s.
$250 OAK +1.5 (-155)
Entering Sunday the Rangers haven’t won a game since the All Star break, going 0-9 during that span. That’s bad news considering they’ll be playing a team that’s swinging the bats well, including getting a 7-3 and 4-1 victory in the first two games. Zack Greinke gets the call for Houston, a proven, reliable pitcher who hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 6 starts. Dane Dunning allowed 3 runs in just 4.2 innings in his last start against the Tigers. Given the current form of the two teams we can feel comfortable playing the run line with the Astros.
$500 HOU -260 • $250 HOU -1.5 (-135)
The Tigers are surging right now with a record of 7-0 since the All Star break, including sweeps of the Twins and Rangers. Despite the team’s recent success, we’ve yet to see a significant change in the betting market. We’re getting Detroit at a fantastic price with one of their best pitchers taking the mound in Wily Peralta. Peralta enters with a 1.64 ERA and has allowed a total of 1 earned run in his last 5 starts combined! He’s fresh off an appearance in which he didn’t allow a run over 7 innings of work against the Twins. Kris Bubic enters with an ERA north of 5 and he’s allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts. Take the Tigers.
$100 DET +104 • $250 DET +1.5 (-175)
The Cardinals came away with a win in extra innings on Wednesday and will look to close out the series in similar fashion. Saint Louis has now won 4 of their last 5 games and will turn to Kwang Hyun Kim Thursday. Kim has a great ERA at 2.87, and hasn’t allowed a single run in any of his last 3 starts. This guy is the definition of a “bet on” pitcher right now. The Cubs have now lost 3 of 4 and Adbert Alzolay will start for them here. Alzolay has been average lately and this line too low all things considered. Take the Cardinals.
$250 STL -130
The Giants resume their series in LA. Both teams have won a game apiece thus far and San Francisco is lined as a heavy underdog. Logan Webb takes the hill in solid current form. In fact, Webb hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in any of his last 5 starts. On the other side will be Julio Urias. Urias is coming off one of his poorer outings of the year, allowing 4 earned in 5.2 innings of work vs the Rockies. At the current price play the Giants.
$100 SF +153 • $100 SF +1.5 (-135)
The White Sox have absolutely owned the Twins this season, so how can we not go back to them Wednesday at the current price? Chicago has won 4 of 5, including 2 of the first 3 games of this series. Minnesota, meanwhile, has lost 5 of their 6 games played since the All Star break. Dylan Cease is a fairly consistent pitcher, a guy who gives up 2 to 3 earned runs on a regular basis. Michael Pineda faced these same Sox in his last start, giving up 5 earned in 5.1 innings pitched. Take the White Sox.
$500 CHW -153
The last time Marcus Stroman took the mound he was amped up, leading to the benches clearing and words being exchanged with the Pirates. The effort Stroman gives when he’s on the mound in unquestionable, and he has the stuff to back it up. Stroman is in line for a dominant start against a Reds team that has lost 4 of 5 since the All Star break. The Mets offense has also come to life as of late. Prior to their loss Tuesday, New York had plated 15,7, and 7 runs in their previous 3 games. Jeff Hoffman is nothing special so look for New York to take the series on Wednesday. Take the Mets.
$250 NYM -135
The Brewers had the day off Monday and are coming off an 8-0 win over the Reds, as well as a sweep of the series. Runs haven’t been hard to come by in Milwaukee lately as the Brew Crew has totaled 8,7, and 11 runs in their last 3 games. Kansas City, meanwhile, just lost 2 of 3 against the hapless Orioles and they’ve now lost 6 of 7. Mike Minor enters Tuesday in terrible form, giving up 6,4,5, and 9 earned runs in his last 4 starts. Eric Lauer hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in any of his past 3 trips to the bump. This price is a little high so I’ll recommend a run line play on the Brewers.
$250 MIL -156
Two teams headed in opposite directions get ready to play a double header Monday as the White Sox host the Twins. Chicago has won 7 of 8, including their last 2 games against the Astros in dominant fashion. Meanwhile, the Twins have yet to win a game since the All Star break, most recently getting swept by the Tigers. Minnesota plated 4 runs total in the series and didn’t score at all in 2 of the 3 games. Lance Lynn takes the mound in game 1 sporting a 9-3 record to go along with a 1.99 ERA. Lynn hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in any of his last 3 starts. Griffin Jax will get the start for Minnesota. Jax allowed 6 earned runs against the Royals in his last start. Look for Chicago to cruise to an easy victory in this one. Take the White Sox run line.
$250 CHW -1.5 (-120)
Corbin Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball all season long. He also enters Sunday in great “current form.” Burnes has allowed just 1 run in each of his last 3 starts. Milwaukee opened up this series with an 11-6 victory and picked up another win in extra innings Saturday night. Sonny Gray is a solid pitcher but he’s not on the same level as Burnes and Milwaukee has Cincinnati’s number right now. Take the Brewers.
$250 MIL -119
Each team has taken a game apiece as the A’s and Indians look to finish up their series in Oakland Sunday. The A’s had plenty of opportunities to put runs on the board Saturday, with perhaps the biggest moment coming when Elvis Andrus grounded into a double play with the bases loaded. Matt Olson continues to rake, and this Oakland offense has a good opportunity to plate some runs against Zach Plesac. Plesac has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts, and he hasn’t lasted longer than 4 innings in either of his past 2. Chris Bassitt takes the mound for Oakland with 10 wins on the season. Bassitt hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in 6 of his past 7 starts. He’s fresh off an appearance in which he gave up just 1 run on 4 hits in 7 innings of work. Take the A’s.
$250 OAK -165
Fresh off a 10-4 victory in their series opener, the Dodgers will look to keep things rolling with Walker Buehler on the mound. Buehler has had a fantastic season thus far, entering 9-1 with a 2.36 ERA. He didn’t allow a single run on just 3 hits last time out against the Diamondbacks. Colorado will counter with Kyle Freeland, who owns an ERA of 5.48. Freeland has settled down after some very shaky starts. Nonetheless, look for LA to put up some crooked numbers again at Coors Field Saturday. Take the Dodgers run line.
$250 LA -1.5 (-170)