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***DOG OF THE DAY*** Texas +130

Perez has been strong all season for the Rangers, and the White Sox are averaging only 3.78 runs per game. Giolito gave up five runs in his last start and White Sox don't deserve to be this big of fav in this spot. Great value with the Rangers in this one.

My Texas vs Chicago predictions:

TEX +129

Moneyline Pick

$500

Risk

$645

Win

Rodon on the mound for Giants, he is 2-0 and making his 4th start. The left-hander did not allow a run in 5 2/3 innings pitched on Wednesday against the Mets. He's carrying a 1.06 ERA over first 3 games.

Daulton Jefferies gets the nod for A's today and will be his 4th start- he is 1-2 with a 1.17 ERA.

This total is set at 6.5 for a reason, two lock down pitchers dueling today, so look for a low scoring game. I get San Fran being favored but -258? In low scoring games anything can happen, I think Jefferies gives Oakland a fighting chance here with +230 odds, got to like the plus money.

My Oakland vs San Francisco predictions:

OAK +230

Moneyline Pick

$500

Risk

$1150

Win

I like Atlanta here tonight, partly because this Hawks team has good playoff experience, making a deep run in last year’s postseason. Plus, the Hawks will look to take advantage of Charlotte’s defense that’s been constantly abused by teams in the regular season. Once concern for Hawks bettors is big man John Collins is still out, but I still like Atlanta here.

My Charlotte vs Atlanta predictions:

CHR -5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

***OVER 152*** Both teams lit it up in the semi's and I think the offenses keep rolling tonight. Per KenPom, both teams rank in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and average possession length. And each side ranks in the top 105 in possessions per game and attempts more than 23 percent of its shots in transition. Especially considering the way both Love and Ochai Agbaji are playing right now, I like the offenses to stay hot.

My North Carolina vs Kansas predictions:

UNC 152 (-110)

Total Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

The Bruins have the better defense in the matchup, as they rank 13th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency while the Tar Heels are 42nd. They are an experienced bunch too, as over 80% of minutes from last year’s Final Four team came back for a title run this year. Considering UCLA’s experience in this spot, the Bruins should have a situational advantage against first-year head coach Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels who haven't been real impressive this season.

Concern for UCLA bettors is status of Jaime Jaquez Jr., who looked to have a high degree sprain in last game and is questionable for this game. Personally I don't think the kid will be able to play, but I still like the Bruins here even w/o Jaquez in the lineup, even if more of a fade of a mediocre UNC team. Taking UCLA.

My North Carolina vs UCLA predictions:

UNC -2 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

These are two higher-scoring teams and the Bulldogs are used to being involved in shootouts from being in the Big South. Stephen F. Austin plays solid defense, but the offense is pretty good also and I think this could end up as a game where both get into the 70s so give me the over here.

My Stephen F. Austin vs UNC Asheville predictions:

SFA 143.5 (-110)

Total Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

Tech wasn't good down the stretch this year and while they have a tall team with great defense, the Raiders offense is a big concern for me here. I don't think they have the fire power to beat a 27 win team by 15 points.

My Montana St. vs Texas Tech predictions:

MONST +15 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

This line opened at -16.5 and has ran up to -18.5 at most books with the money coming in on Tech. I've got to lay the big number with Tech here as I think they are at least 3 TD's better than KU. Kansas is still a long way away from being a competitive football team - the Jayhawks rank dead last in the FBS in successful play rate. Between Bean’s 57.4 passing grade and the offensive line being the lowest-graded unit in the Power Five, the offense has been anemic. Even with the Red Raiders having a shaky defense from top to bottom, this is a Jayhawks offense that has struggled against every opponent this season.

Texas Tech quarterback Henry Colombi has played well with Tyler Shough out due to injury. He started most the games last season and he’s generated 0.22 EPA per pass when on the field, a mark that would rank 16th in the Power Five. Kansas has yet to cover the spread in 2021, and I can’t see that changing this week. Guns up!

My Texas Tech vs Kansas predictions:

TXTECH -18.25 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

Texas A&M QB Haynes King broke his leg against Colorado and the Aggies have't been the same team since. The Aggies managed just 272 yards of total offense in a 20-10 loss to Arkansas. That poor showing came just two weeks after a 10-7 win over Colorado in which they didn't score a touchdown until late in the fourth quarter. That's two games against Power Five opponents and two games in which the Aggies scored 10 points. Against a Mississippi State defense which has been pretty darn good against the run this season, that seems more than a little problematic for an anemic Aggies offense.

Miss. State coming off of tough losses to Memphis and LSU but this team is better than their record. Give me the 7 points here and sprinkle the ML.

Prediction: Mississippi State 21, Texas A&M 16

My Mississippi St. vs Texas A&M predictions:

MIS.ST +240

Moneyline Pick

$100

Risk

$240

Win

MIS.ST +7 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

This line opened at Texas -11 and early money poured in on Texas Tech moving the line down to Texas -7.5 and apparently there was some sharp action that hammered Texas moving the line back to Texas -9.

Both of these teams are off to pretty solid starts. Texas beat Louisiana to start off the year well, but then quickly dropped a game to what is looking like a really stout Arkansas team. The Horns bounced back last week, crushing Rice and now hope to bring that same momentum into this game.

Texas Tech started the year with an exclamation mark, beating a tough Houston team by 17 points. After that, they took care of business against FIU and but the Red Raiders struggled to put away Stephen F. Austin and eked out a win with a late defensive stop inside the red zone. A 3-0 start is just what the Raiders wanted entering Austin, and I expect them to bring all the fight against a tough Texas team.

The Raiders have Oregon transfer QB Tyler Shough at the helm and are very balanced on offense with a strong run game to compliment a strong passing game....and Tech finally looks to have a good defense this year with a veteran secondary. I'm not sold on Texas longhorns this year as Arkansas rushed for 340 yards against Texas and sure Texas pounded Rice, but the Owls had a 3rd string QB in for 3 of those quarters and Rice isn't very good. I think Texas gets a wakeup call this weekend and are far from being "back". I love the +9 points here in a game that Texas Tech could win out right.

My Texas Tech vs Texas predictions:

TXTECH +9 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

Stanford has a lot of question marks on offense coming into this season. According to Football Outsiders’ Returning Talent Index, Stanford ranks dead-last in the PAC-12 and returns just 14 of its 22 starters on offense and defense. Per ESPN’s Returning Production, the Cardinal bring back just 55 percent of their overall production (111th in the FBS). The one bright spot for Stanford is they return 8 starters on defense, but they will need it as the Cardinal defense wasn’t great at stopping the run last season.

K. State had a mediocre season last year but should be improved with Skylar Thompson back under center. Thompson will be joined in the backfield by Deuce Vaughn one of the best backs in the Big 12. The Wildcats also reloaded this season with some nice transfer pickups, with defensive tackle Timmy Horne from Charlotte and defensive back Julius Brents from Iowa, two players expected to start right away. While Kansas State has some inexperience at the linebacker but returning both corners and safety.

Pick: With Stanford expecting a down trotting year, it could be a long season for the Cardinals. K. State will be the more experienced team here and I expect big things out of Skylar Thompson and Deuce Vaughn this season. Plus this game is being played at Jerry World in Arlington, and half the K.State players are from Texas making this more of a home coming for the Wildcats.

My Stanford vs Kansas St. predictions:

STANFO -3 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

UAB has been a perennial powerhouse in Conference USA and should again compete for the conference championship this year. But, Jacksonville State finished last season at 10-3 and 6-1 in conference and won’t be intimidated after beating FIU and playing Florida State close last year. The Gamecocks also have senior quarterback Zerrick Cooper under center and he is only 161 yards short of becoming the Gamecocks' all-time leading passer. Jacksonville State has enough talent on both sides of the ball to keep this game close and Cooper at QB seals the deal here for me.

My UAB vs Jacksonville St. predictions:

UAB +15.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

Sharps money is pounding UAB. Love the dogs in September but this feels like a live bet game after seeing a couple of series. BOL!

Go Dawgs.

My Cleveland vs Atlanta predictions:

CLE -6 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

Luis Gil gets my money here, Yankees at home and the better pen. First half and for the game. BOL!

My Boston vs New York predictions:

BOS +101

Moneyline Pick

$500

Risk

$505

Win

BOS -1.5 (+185)

Spread Pick

$100

Risk

$185

Win

@BadMan

10 MO

I’m with you!

My vs predictions:

BOS -1.5 (+185)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$463

Win

The Hawks are also a team that doesn’t play much defense, but the Magic's anemic offense won't be able to take advantage. The Magic will have no answer for Trae Young.

My Orlando vs Atlanta predictions:

ORL -13 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

Baylor 107, Kansas State 59. That was the first meeting at the end of January, and Baylor was electric in that game hitting 58% from the field and 61% from three. I don't expect the same kind of result today, K. State has been grittier down the stretch albeit still a bad team. But 20 feels a bit heavy here as I'm sure Baylor will rest players late if they are up big and leave the back door wide open. I like Baylor to win 77-62 and will take the 20 points.

My Kansas St. vs Baylor predictions:

KANST +20 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

We can't forget how bad Pittsburgh was down the stretch, winning only 1 of their last 5 games. My book has Cleveland +6.5 so bought the hook here and taking the Browns +7. Wouldn't surprise me at all for Browns to win this game out right.

My Cleveland vs Pittsburgh predictions:

CLE +6 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

Indy's defense is stout but Buffalo looking like the best team in the NFL. Getting this line under a touchdown feels like the right side.

My Indianapolis vs Buffalo predictions:

IND -6.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

Despite seeing John Wolford lead the Rams to a win over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, there’s certainly some concern in Los Angeles right now. Will Jared Goff be ready to go? All signs are that it's a game time decision and he won't be 100% if he does play, not to mention the rust from sitting the last 2 weeks after surgery. Goff starting seems highly unlikely, leaving the Rams to rely on Wolford once again. It’s not a great situation for head coach Sean McVay and Co. to be in right now. Even if Goff is able to go, it’s not like he was setting the world on fire ahead of suffering the injury. I fully expect the Rams’ top defense to keep this close for a while with Aaron Donald doing his thing against Wilson. I just can’t pick an upset given Goff’s struggles and the fact that he’s unlikely to even play in this one. Seattle wins a 24-17 type of game.

My Los Angeles vs Seattle predictions:

LAR -3.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

Colts going to be w/o both starting tackles for this game. "The Indianapolis Colts will be without both starting offensive tackles when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo has been downgraded to out with knee and ankle injuries, while right tackle Braden Smith was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Friday."

Good spot for Pittsburgh to get their shit together before the playoffs.

Buffalo is going to bring the running game and Marshall is going to bring the defense. Class matchup of offense vs. defense, but I just think Buffalo is the superior team in this one and will out last Marshall of 4 quarters. This one comes down to strength of schedule to me and Conference USA is pretty weak this year which takes the shine off off Marshall's 7-1 record. Should be a good game but I'll lay the 5 points.

My Marshall vs Buffalo predictions:

MARSHL -4.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

The Scarlet Knights looked like the grind of the Big Ten season had taken a toll in last week’s loss to Penn State and with just four games played as a result of COVID, Maryland figures to be the more rested squad in this one. I still think Rutgers will enter this game better-prepared and more energized. I don’t have a ton of deep analysis to offer here, but I say Rutgers bounces back and wins this week and enters the final week of the season with three wins. Score: Rutgers 28, Maryland 17.

My Rutgers vs Maryland predictions:

RUTGER +6.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

Northwestern had an impromptu bye last week because its scheduled game against Minnesota was canceled due to COVID-19 complications within the Golden Gophers program. The Wildcats suffered their first loss (outright and ATS) as 13.5-point road favorites at Michigan State Nov. 28. Despite not playing last week, Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West Division title and a berth in the Big Ten Championship.

It’s crazy to lay more than two touchdowns with a Northwestern team that has nothing to play for and a terrible offense. The Wildcats are 121st in yards per play, 115th in yards per rush and 89th in points per game.

According to Pregame.com the sharp money is hitting Illinois and taking the points and I'll follow.

My Illinois vs Northwestern predictions:

ILLINO +14 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

Do we spend the Unders?

My New Orleans vs Denver predictions:

NO 36 (-110)

Total Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

UNDER UNDER UNDER.

My New Orleans vs Denver predictions:

NO 36 (-110)

Total Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

Two teams trending in opposite direction. At 4-6 on the season, Detroit is battling for playoff relevancy. The team has won three of six since a 1-3 start to the season. Unfortunately, these good feelings gave way to a brutal Week 11 performance that saw Detroit shut out by a previously struggling Carolina Panthers squad with a backup QB by the score of 20-0. On the other hand, Houston put up a nice performance in a 27-20 win over the New England.

Detroit has been bitten by the injury bug and the Texans are now a respectable 3-2 since firing Bill O’Brien. I like Houston's mojo to continue on Thanksgiving Day.

Prediction: Houston 27- Detroit 20

My Houston vs Detroit predictions:

HOU -2.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$250

Risk

$227

Win

The Vegas offense will keep the same formula going until someone stops it. Get the tough running game going, get an efficient passing day, don’t get hit with a ton of turnovers, and keep converting on third downs. The Denver receiving corps is just banged up enough to be a problem.

My Denver vs Las Vegas predictions:

DEN -3.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

Like most of the games the Colts have played this season, this is a tough one to predict. Both of these teams know each other well, but the Colts have a chance to bounce back after a tough loss at home against the Ravens. The Titans defense isn’t what it used to be. They are 25th in pressure rate (19.1%) and dead last in sack rate (3.06%). Where this game will be determined is in the trenches - stopping Derrick Henry is the game plan and while most teams don’t have a chance in slowing him down, the Colts do. Give me Colts at the virtual pick em', Indy wins a high scoring game 34-27.

My Indianapolis vs Tennessee predictions:

IND +0 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

IND 48.5 (-110)

Total Pick

$100

Risk

$91

Win

LOVE the Raiders here today as they come in as the much healthier team. LA will keep it close in a shootout with the Raiders, but the defense just won’t be able to finish the game for the Bolts. With no Joey Bosa and a lot of question marks in the secondary, there’s simply too much to overcome for Gus Bradley’s unit. Darren Waller is also a matchup nightmare.

My Las Vegas vs Los Angeles predictions:

LAS -1 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

Well, this should be fun. Two of the worst teams in the NFL will be going up against each other, with one being favored by nearly a TD on the road. Houston is allowing an average of 31 points per game, and the Jaguars have given up 30-plus points in each of their previous six games. The only part of this game that should be fun to watch is Deshaun Watson tearing up a terrible Jacksonville secondary. Houston wins 34-17.

My Houston vs Jacksonville predictions:

HOU -6.5 (-110)

Spread Pick

$500

Risk

$455

Win

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