The Browns just can't seem to put it all together. The first two games, the offense was rolling but the defense struggled. Now the defense is stout but the offense scuffled in Minnesota last week. The Chargers don't have that problem. In back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Raiders, the Bolts looked like the best team in the AFC West, if not the entire conference. I'll take the hotter team at home and Herbert over Mayfield in what is essentially a pick'em.
The Buccaneers have looked mortal over the past two weeks after losing to the Rams and squeaking out a win over the Patriots on Sunday night. However, Tom Brady still leads one of the NFL's most explosive offenses, and the Bucs have the league's best run defense. Meanwhile, Miami ranks 28th in rushing yards and 26th in yards per carry. If this game comes down to Jacoby Brissett needing to outgun Brady, my money would be on the Buccaneers in a blowout.
In the last three weeks, the Dolphins have been blown out at home by the Bills, fallen in a winnable game in Las Vegas and lost by another double-digit margin at home against the Indianapolis Colts. They'll also be without veteran receiver William Fuller, who is now on IR after breaking a finger against Indy.
SMU is 3-0 on the season and escaped with a last second hail mary against a good La tech team last week. TCU has won 17 out of last 20 games these two teams have played and that's a hard number to look past as TCU typically has a better grade of players across the board. But TCU struggled against an average California team in week 2 and SMU has been averaging 44 points per game across their last 3 games. If SMU can stop the run and forces the Horned Frogs to throw, the Battle for the Iron Skillet might get interesting. But that might be easier said than done as TCU has a 5-star soph. running back in Zach Evans that could be hard to stop as he ran all over Purdue last week, smashing Purdue for 346 rushing yards. I like TCU to control the game on the ground with Zach Evans, but SMU's offense is dangerous enough to put up enough puts to keep this game closer than double digits. I like SMU to win here but it's going to be closer than expected.
***OVER 54*** I expect the Titans’ offense to rebound in a big way in this game, namely in pass protection and through the air where the Seahawks’ defense can be exploited. Plus the Seahawks come into this game with a few key injuries.
Expect to see a highs coring game as Ryan Tannehill will find A.J. Brown and Julio Jones early and often. Plus Tennessee’s defense has another lackluster showing last week and will struggle to keep Russell Wilson and Co. in check. I predict we see a shootout today.
Cincinnati bettors should have some pause here after the Bearcats offense got out to an unusually slow start last Saturday against Murray State. The defense forced three first-half interceptions, but it was a 7-7 ballgame at halftime. Indiana's offense hasn't looked crisp early but they did get it going last week against Idaho winning 56-14. Indiana had high expectations coming into this season and while all the talking heads are on Cinci this week, I'm taking the Hoosiers at home.
UNLV is a bad football team, really bad as they have now lost eight consecutive games, seven of which were decided by double digits. And in last week's loss to Arizona State, the Rebels allowed three times as many total yards (465) as their offense gained (155). It has been a rough start to the year for Iowa State who started out as a Top 10 team, but the Cyclones should be able to take out their frustrations on a really bad UNLV this week.
Texas didn’t get enough credit for what it did on Saturday. Louisiana was a good football team and Texas made them look average at best. The Horns rolled with relative ease after getting through the rust-shaking first half. New head coach Steve Sarkisian got a big day out of new starting QB Hudson Card, Bijan Robinson looked and played like the superstar running back he is, and it was a 20-point win over the 23rd ranked team in the country.
The Hogs ran well but didn’t show much of a passing game last week. And I can’t look past the fact that Rice was up 17-7 midway through the third quarter against a below average Rice team. Arkansas’s defense did look good limiting Rice for 81 yards and didn’t allow a run over seven yards. The Hogs are going to get after Texas RB Robinson from the start and make Card win the game through the air.
Prediction: I can’t look past the fact that Arkansas was down 17-7 midway through the 3rd quarter. Or the fact that Texas man handled #23 ranked Louisiana. Still a lot to be proven with this Texas team but from what I saw in week one, I’m laying the 6.5 points with Texas here as they looked that much better than Arkansas in week 1.
The Gophers have lost 11 straight games in this series, and they have been held to 14 points or less in six of their last eight games. Minnesota could buck that losing trend this year as there are few question marks around Ohio State this season. QB C.J. Stroud has never thrown a pass in his collegiate career. Stroud is a 5 star blue chipper but he will still be a little shaky with his first start in a hostile environment. But Stroud will have some lethal help at receiver with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, two of the best receivers in college. So even if Stroud has nerves you can expect to see some points out of the Buckeyes offense.
Minnesota should be tough offensively this season, the Gophers lost two elite receivers in the past two years with Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman in the NFL. Still, their passing game should be in decent shape with Chris Autman-Bell as the primary target. And Minnesota of course has their best weapon at RB with Mohamed Ibrahim. Ibrahim ran for at least 100 yards in every game in 2020. Ibrahim was the best running back in the country.
Upset Alert?? I don't think so, but I like the 2 touchdowns here with a dangerous Minnesota team that has the weapons to keep up.
The Orioles have already lost 27 games at home this season and just five of them have been by a single run. The Chicago offense is averaging 6.8 runs per game in their last 10 and they are in a prime spot against Lopez. Pick: White Sox RL -1.5 (+108)
These two teams are a combined 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games. Notre Dame is a sub par team and Wake Forest is flat terrible. I've got to go ND to get the win and cover at home, Wake Forest struggles mightily on offense (ranked 294th) and has a terrible defense to boot.
This 143 O/U total feels high, sure neither side has a great defense but neither team lights it up either and Wake probably won't score 60 points in this game.
I don't know how the Packers defense shows out today, but it's not going to matter. I think the Packers will boat race the Rams. Today we see ALL the chess pieces out on the board. Today the Packers put the NFL on notice: you have to game plan for a three deep RB corps up the gut, on the edges, and in the screen game, the deep ball to MVS, crossers to Lazard. and Davante everywhere.. You have to cover Tonyan down the deep seams. Time to spread it around, touch them all, and make defenses pick their poison. Packers offense is going the beat the brakes off of this "great" Rams defense, hang 35+ on 'em today in a statement game. 35-20 Packers and Overs
Memphis ranks fifth in defensive rating, ninth in effective field-goal percentage and seventh in defensive turnover percentage. Philadelphias offense isnt’ very scary now that Embiid is joining Curry on the sidelines. Memphis just does the little things better than Philadelphia...the Grizzlies average more points off of turnovers...points in the paint...fast break points and second-chance points per game than the 76ers. I'll take the points with the healthier Grizzlies team.
In this year’s first meeting, Baltimore was without the heart of its rush defense. DT Brandon Williams, free-agent acquisition DE Calais Campbell and Baltimore’s best run defending LB L.J. Fort were all sidelined with an injury in the Ravens’ Week 11 loss to the Titans. But Ravens come into this game healthy and at full strength.
OK State @ Kansas State - 20mph sustained winds, gusts 30. Going to be tough on the passing and kicking game today. I like me some Unders in these conditions.
The Broncs lost their two best offensive players from last year in QB Jon Wassink and RB LeVante Bellamy but still have WR Skyy Moore who is maybe the best receiver in the MAC. This just feels like too many points here with all the fresh faces on offense for Wester Michigan. Akron returning plenty of starters and Sr. QB Kato Nelson at the helm should give them enough experience to keep this one closer than the number.
This will be Valdez’s third start of the season and he just got a win over the Jays on Saturday, where he struck out eight batters in six innings, which was a career high for him. New York looked pretty stout offensively in the Rays series Houston has hit a cold streak, but I don't trust Chad Green and with Altuve back I think Houston snaps their losing streak.
