BAGEL MAN

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Since their magical March Madness run a few years ago the Loyola Chicago Ramblers have consistently had very good teams that are always in the mix for their conference championship. They have one of the best and most efficient defenses in the country while still having a top-100 offense and have just 3 losses on the season and only 1 in their last ten. Southern Illinois is on a 2 game skid and has just 4 wins in ten, so they are not playing great at the moment. I think the Ramblers will shut down the Salukis and win by a wide margin, easily covering the -6 spread.

Colorado is a very good basketball team, They just happen to play in one of the best conferences in the negation in the PAC-12. They are young and lost their best scorer from last season, yet they have played tough against some very good teams in the UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans losing by a combined 9 points. Washington isn’t bad themselves, but I think Colorado is a much better team based on their showings against other top end teams of the PAC-12 while also ranking better offensively and defensively in raw numbers and efficiency ratings.

Prediction: Colorado wins and covers easily. I think they are very underrated and should look great against an okay Washington team.

If not for Gonzaga, BYU and Santa Clara would be the best teams in the West Coast Conference. They are both very solid squads and will most likely be in the tournament come March. Well, at least one of them. BYU is the 23rd best team in the nation in terms of AdjEM and Santa Clara is 83rd. They are similarly ranked on the offensive end, but BYU is much better on defense, where Santa Clara doesn’t even break the top-100. Though Santa Clara will play tough, BYU averages about 9 points of efficiency more than Santa Clara per 100 possessions, and with the spread at just -3, the Cougars are a good bet to get it done.

Prediction: BYU to win and cover -3.

Perdue is the best offense in college basketball. Well, the most efficient at least. By raw PPG they are 4th in the nation, but either way , they are a great offense. Iowa isn’t too bad on offense either though, ranked as the 5th best offense in the nation by PPG and 7th in AdjO. These teams are going to score a lot of points and not play much defense. Perdue is the better squad on that end as well, but they are far from elite and barely considered good. What Perdue does really well though is rebound. They are the best defensive rebounding team in the nation and are 26th on the offensive side. Their size is going to be an issue for the Hawkeyes and is going to lead them to a BIG 10 victory.

Prediction: Boilermakers win and cover.

Arkansas is the better team. They are more efficient as a group and are just better in general. Not only are they more efficient, but they also are a better offense with raw PPG while being a comparable defense. However, they run at a much higher pace than the Rebels, due to their fast break oriented offense. Ole Miss will try to keep up, but they don’t have the scoring to go toe-to-toe offensively with Arkansas or the defense to slow them down.

Prediction: Arkansas is going to run Ole Miss out of the gym and it will not be a close game. I wouldn’t be surprised if the final score had the Razorbacks winning by double-digits.

Utah State is a very balanced team and is ranked in the top 80 in offensive and defensive efficiency. They aren’t great on either end, with their best being offensive where they rank as the 59th most efficient team in the nation. On defense they are right at 80th. As for the Aztecs, they are a one way team. Saying they are defensive specialists is an understatement as they currency hold the 2nd most efficient D in the nation and are going to stifle the Aggies offensive attack, and ultimately, lead to a win.

Prediction: Aztecs to win and cover -2.

A&M is a very good team and is probably the 3rd best team in Texas,which shows just how good the state is at the moment in terms of basketball talent. However, while the Aggies are a good team, LSU is better. Are they better on offense? No. In fact, the Aggies rank 20 spots better than the Tigers do in AdjO efficiency, but the Tigers are the best defense in the nation by efficiency. The less than great offense of the Gators is going to struggle against the Tigers supreme defense and I think that will be the major difference in this game. It won’t be extremely high scoring, but it will be high leverage, and when the games matter most, defense wins.

Prediction: LSU to win and cover -8.5.

Florida and Tennessee have similarly ranked squads on the offensive side and are both pretty efficient, ranking 55th and 51st respectively. However, Tennessee’s calling card is their great defense that ranks as the 5th most efficient squad in the nation on that side of the ball. They are long,athletic, and give effort that leads to a lot of easier offensive possessions for them. Is Florida a good basketball team? Absolutely. But I don’t think they are ready to win against the Volunteers. However, 10 points on the spread is too big and they will almost definitely cover. They are too good to lose by double digits.

Prediction: Tennessee to win but Florida covers+10.

Georgia. Alabama. SEC Footb…wait, no. This is a basketball game, and it’s not going to be as good of a game as the CFP National Championship. Alabama is a much better basketball team than the Bulldogs, and are rightfully favored by a lot of points. Alabama is a fast and efficient offense based on putting up a lot of shots. Their efficiency isn’t amazing, but they put up so many shots and create enough fast-break opportunities that they still score a lot of points. Georgia is bad at pretty much everything. If Alabama can play a lick of defense, they should easily win against a team that can’t score or defend.

Prediction: Alabama will win and cover by sheer volume shooting.

The Warriors, at their best, are the best team in basketball. But right now, they are at their floor. Steph Curry is missing 3s, which is weird, but most of all, it’s bad for the Warriors. They still have an historically great defense, but without Currie’s offensive prowess, and Draymond Green on the sideline with injury, they are starting to slip. As for the Mavericks, they are playing the best basketball of their season. They are 8-2 in their last 10 and are now 5th in the West.

Prediction: Normally, I would take the Warriors, but with their recent struggles, I like the Mavs to win while covering +3.

The Golden Knights are a first place team and the Hurricanes are a third place team. But don’t let that fool you. Vegas is in a much weaker division than Carolina and both of these teams are good. However, the Hurricanes have been slightly better through the season as far as record goes and have more than double the positive goal differential of the Knights at 45 and 21 respectively. This shows that their wins are less flukey and their losses are closer.

Prediction: In this matchup I like the Hurricanes to win but the Golden Knights to cover.

The Penguins have consistently been one of the best teams in the NHL this year and are playing as good as ever at the moment. They are top-10 in offense and defense and have the best power play kill percentage in the entire league. Their balanced attack has led to 57 points on the season, the second most after a few teams with 61. They are on a five game win streak and are going to give the Coyotes, the statistically second worst team by points, a lot of issues on both ends of the rink. Arizona is the worst defense and third worst offense in the league.

Prediction: The penguins will win this game and they’ll probably cover.

Normally, this would be a huge matchup and a possible preview to the Western Conference Finals, However, with Donovan Mitchell still out, the Jazz are not at their best. They are still capable of winning games, as shown by their solid record, but they are 3-7 in their last 10 and have a point differential of just +1 over their last 3, while the Suns are +10.7. The Suns are missing Deandre Ayton and a slew of other players, but their core is mostly intact and has powered them to the best record in the NBA so far this year while also going 9-1 in their last 10.

Prediction: I don’t think this will be a blowout, but I like the Suns to win outright in this matchup against a banged up Utah team.

Neither of these teams are top tier in the NBA, but the Pelicans have been just slightly better over their last 10 games, but slightly worse over their last 3. Their records are very similar and they have been near each other in the standings all year. The Pacers are a better offense, but the Pelicans are a much better rebounding team. The difference in this game is probably going to be second chance opportunities for the Pelicans created by their rebounding.

Prediction: Pelicans win outright with defense and rebounding.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing good basketball against good teams. They have recent wins over the Nets and Jazz and are 4-1 in their last 5. The Knicks are playing okay but are not the team that the Cavs are. Their roster is constructed in the same mold and they are both good defenses, but Cleveland sports a better offense and better defense, ranking 22nd and 2nd in those categories respectively, while the Knicks rank 26th and 5th. Could New York win? Sure. Do I think they will? No.

Prediction: Cavs to win and cover -7.

The Chicago Bulls are decimated by injuries and are on a downward spiral that is not often seen in the NBA. A team that at one point was first in the East is now fighting to keep a top 4 spot while they’ve gone 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Thunder are bad, but they’ve been bad all season. However, they have some young talent that can score and defense, so I like the Thunder to win this game. The Bulls just don’t have players that can do much besides Demar DeRozen, and he can only do so much in terms of scoring, and is not the defender that Lonzo Ball or Alex Caruso is.

Prediction: Thunder to win outright.

When healthy, the Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the best defenses in the NBA and maybe even one of the best teams in the NBA. So are they fully healthy right now? Eh…they haven’t had Colin Sexton basically the whole season and Ricky Rubio is now out for the season so two of their better perimeter defenders are out. Their biggest advantage on the defensive end is their rim protection with the phenom Evan Mobley showing that he may be a generational defensive talent as well as a competent scorer and playmaker. The Thunder are one of the worst teams in the NBA as far as record, but pretty good against the spread with a 28-16-1 record ATS.

Prediction: With the Cavs having some injury issues and the Thunder being a good covering team Ilike OKC to cover the large spread at +12.5.

The Pacers just beat the Lakers, but the Suns are one of the top teams in the West for a reason just as the Lakers are not for a reason. Well, multiple reasons. The Suns are relatively healthy and are on a great run at the moment going 8-2 in their last 10 games and are on a 5 game winning streak. Phoenix has consistently been great throughout the season and the Pacers are in one of the worst stretches of their already awful season. -12.5 is quite the spread but the Suns are quite the team.

Prediction: Suns win and cover the large spread.

The Bucks are not playing great basketball at the moment with a 4-6 record over their last 10 and are still only 2 games back of first in the Eastern Conference. They have a decent point differential but are hovering just below even 0. The Kings are…well…bad. And lately, they’ve been…bad. 3-7 isn’t much worse than the Bucks, but you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who believes the Kings are near the level of the Bucks. They’re a better offense and a much better defense with very good wing play.

Prediction: Bucks win outright, but I don’t trust them to cover with their recent cold streak.

Though the Memphis Grizzlies have more injury issues than the Nuggets at the moment, Memphis is still more than capable of making this competitive and winning the game. Ja Morant is in the lineup and he is the most important player on the Grizzlies, though they did well without him in his injury absence. As for the Nuggets, if Jokic can get going, the Grizzlies aren’t a great team defending big men and may struggle to stop his scoring and playmaking output. If the Grizzlies can limit Jokic, they can win this game. Jamal Murray being out of the lineup is a huge negative for the Nuggets, and the Grizzlies being able to key on 1 player should help them to limit his success.

Prediction: Grizzlies to cover +3.5.

The Raptors have gone slightly cold after a 5 game win streak and are 1-3 in their last 4, but only have a -0.7 in their last 3 due to them playing close games against good teams like the Mavericks and Heat. The Wizards have been playing decent, but somewhat inconsistent basketball, with a recent win over the 76ers, but losses to the Nets and Magic. The Raptors are more injured at the moment, but they are playing better basketball against better teams and should flex their dominance over the Wizards, who have played an easy schedule and not done that well.

Prediction: Raptors win and cover easily.

With both Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry out of the lineup in this matchup, the Heat are missing 2 very important pieces of their team. However, with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the floor, they are still a good offense and dynamic defense that is one of the best in the league at limiting 3% rate. The Hawks rely on the 3 ball as much as anybody, so if the perimeter can be locked down by Butler and the other Heat guards, which is very possible Miami has a good chance at winning this game. The Heat are one of the best teams in the league and have been dealing with injury issues all year, so their injuries here don’t concern as much as they might for other teams.

Predictions: Heat to win outright.

The Warriors are still without Draymond Green, which hurts their defense immensely, but the Pacers aren’t a great scoring team anyway, so it isn’t quite the blow it would be if the Warriors were facing a better offensive team like the Suns or Grizzlies. The Pacers aren’t terrible at anything really, they are just kind of bad at everything and don’t have a strength to fall back on. The Warriors for example have had some offensive struggles over the last few weeks, but their defense and rebounding is so good that they don’t necessarily have to put up tons of points to be successful. That defense and rebounding ability is why the Warriors will win this game as well, though -11.5 is too high with the injuries they have sustained.

Prediction: Warriors to win outright.

The Knicks aren’t very good, but the Pelicans are even worse. New Orleans season point differential is -4.5 while New York is just under an even differential at -0.3. These teams are pretty comparable on the offensive end and the Pelicans are actually a better rebounding team, but the Knicks have a top-5 defense that forces opponents into low percentage shots, which is why their opponent FG% is 4th best in the league. The Knicks aren’t a team that will run the Pelicans out of the Gym, but their defensive ability will do enough to get a win against this New Orleans team.

Prediction: Knicks win outright.

The Phoenix Suns are one of the best teams in the NBA this season and are the top team in the

West at the moment. The Mavericks, though, are on quite a run of their own, as they have now won 9 of 10 and are moving their way up the rankings in the Western Conference. But while the Mavericks have been good for a stretch, the Suns have been good all season and actually have a better point differential over their last 3 games than the Mavericks, at +19.7 and +7.3 respectively. As good as the Mavs are playing I’m not sure if they win, but a close game seems very likely.

Prediction: Mavericks should cover +3.5 in this one.

The Utah Jazz are a very good basketball team. But lately, they’ve been a very average basketball team. In fact, over their last 10 games they are 4-6 and have not looked particularly good while playing. Losses are a part of the game, but a 10 point defeat given by the Pistons? That’s a little embarrassing for the Jazz. Sure, they don’t have Donovan Mitchell due to a concussion, but they should still be beating teams like the Pistons without too much effort. The Rockets are not very good, but have played a decent amount of close games, even with their 3-7 record. I don’t see the Jazz losing here, but the Rockets covering seems pretty likely.

Prediction: Jazz win but the Rockets cover +12.

Have the Bulls lost it? Eh, maybe, but the more likely reason for their recent struggle is that they are injured. And not just small time role players. They are missing Zach Lavine, Alex Caruso, and Lonzo Ball and can’t seem to get the team going without them. It’s not surprising really, considering that these 3 players are some of the most important on the roster, but nonetheless, they are not playing good basketball. The Cavs, though, are playing great right now with a 5 game win streak on tact after beating the Nets 114-107 in their most recent matchup. With the Bulls as hurt as they are, it’s difficult to see them doing much in this game other than losing, and not in a close fashion.

Prediction: Cavaliers win and cover -3.

I’m sorry, but why are the Grizzlies the underdog at +6.5 in this game? I understand they are injured, but they are playing some truly great basketball right now and have been for the last month. Teams don’t go 9-1 in any stretch in the NBA by pure luck or coincidence. This Memphis team is a legitimate title contender with an elite offense and some of the best overall rebounding in all of basketball. Are the Bucks a good team? Absolutely! But the Grizzlies have been even better and only need to cover +6.5 in this spread. This is an easy choice.

Prediction: Grizzlies to cover +6.5.

Baylor losing 2 in a row may be surprising to some, but if you look at their scores, they have played close games against a lot of teams that they should have beat semi-easily. So seeing them lose games against good teams like Texas Tech and Oklahoma State is not all that surprising. However, they are still a very good team loaded with talent and coached extremely well. West Virginia is a good team as well, but their offense is not nearly at the level of the Bears, and hurts their chance of winning or keeping this game close.

Prediction: Baylor to win and cover in a bounce back game for them.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the quintessential mediocre team. They generally beat bad teams, play close with other average teams, and lose to good teams. In 3 games before playing the injured Warriors, Minnesota blew out Houston, lost close against New Orleans, and was blown out by the Grizzlies. It’s almost art how average they are. As for the Knicks, it’s pretty similar. However New York relies on their defense as opposed to the Wolves being an offense first team. One of the big factors in this game is injuries. The Wolves are relatively healthy while the Knicks have 5 players inactive.

Prediction: This is a close one, but I think the Wolves win outright.