The first No. 1 seed to go down may be the defending champs Baylor Bears here today. The Tar Heels have more talent and size than the typical 8-seed and are coming off a 95-63 first round win over Marquette, improving Carolina to 7-1 in their past eight games, during which they have lost just once ATS. UNC’s second-ranked defensive rebounding unit will stymie a Baylor offense built on second chance points, as 6-foot-10 Armando Bacot posts another double-double.
The New Orleans Saints shocked the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, but nobody has beaten or covered the spread against Aaron Rodgers and Co. since then. And while the Bears are coming off back-to-back wins and covers themselves, the entire panel is confident the Packers will take care of business against a familiar opponent that is bringing along a rookie quarterback and has the second-worst offensive DVOA in the NFL.
A 4.5-point spread does seem quite low considering that the Packers have won and covered in four consecutive meetings between the two, with an average margin of victory of 12.5 points in those affairs.
I don't believe in Sam Darnold or the Panthers, but I don't have much faith in an inconsistent Kirk Cousins and the unpredictable Vikings as a road favorite either. The Vikes were lucky to beat the Lions at home, so why are we expecting them to go on the road and take down a good Panthers squad. But Kirk Cousins is the better QB in this spot and the Vikings also get back Dalvin Cook this week so taking the Vikings (slight lean.)
Wrong team favored, Carlos Hernandez has been nails in his last 3 starts giving up only 2 runs over 17 IP and should be able to keep Houston's potent offense in check. Odorizzi has a 4.59 ERA and a 5-6 record. Great spot to grab the plus money here in a game KC can/should win.
The Phillies have won the first 2 games of this series and are currently one of the hottest teams in baseball winning 7 in a row. Zack Wheeler has been as good a pitcher as anyone else in the National League his 2.57 ERA. Taijuan Walker has hit a wall and has given up 15 runs in last 3 games over 14 IP. Walker won’t get much run support from the Mets 28th ranked offense.
Replacing Kyrie Irving and James Harden with guys named Landry Shamet and Bruce Brown is hard to get behind. Blake Griffin couldnâ€™t slow down Antetokounmpo in Game 4 and Brook Lopez overdue for a big game in this series.
The Celtics have looked shaky as of late, while the Magic have suddenly won three of their last four. Tristan Thompson also out for Boston tonight. No chance I'm taking Magic to continue their winning streak and beat the Celtics â€“ but getting 10 points here? Got to grab the points.
Money trickling in on Georgia Tech but I think Clemson is the MUCH better team here and have covered 3 of their last 4 games, including wins over UNC, Syracuse and Louisville. GT is 1-4 ATS in their last 5. I'll lay the 4 points with Clemson at home.
The Dolphins offense isn't performing at high enough of a level to justify being truly scared about the Chiefs squaring off against them. While Tua hasn't disappointed as a starter, he also hasn't excelled. The Dolphins offensive line is susceptible to a good pass rush and this is a good barometer for the struggling Chiefs defensive line to see if they truly have taken a step back compared to last year. The headlining matchup is of course the Chiefs passing game versus the Dolphins secondary, but when you have Patrick Mahomes, you always bet on him.
Navy is hoping to make up for a tough season with an upset today but I don't see it happening. Navy thumped Army last year to the tune of 31-7 and I see revenge on the menu today. I'll lay the 7 with the more consistent team here. #GoArmy
Green Bay has the better offense but Tampa has better defense and TB has played the tougher schedule here by power rankings. Tough one to call here but the points look attractive. Expect the old men to bring out the best in each other tonight and both offenses can light it up. Maybe something small on the over
Can 49er's turn things around from the egg they dropped in Miami last week? San Fran looked a mess last week and Jimmy G looked gun shy. Not in love with LA's offense, but Rams defense should feast today.
The Seahawks look unstoppable and Wilson is on an incredible roll. However, there are major concerns on defense and they could be missing three defensive starters. That said, donâ€™t bet against them.
All three games this season for Seattle have gone Over the number and with 3 starters out on defense for the Hawks I think Fitszmagic will be able to put up some points. Combined with Wilson and the Hawks offense putting up over 30 points and giving up nearly 30 a game, then I expect another high scoring game in South Beach.
Two of the best defenses in the league through three games, with the Colts leading the way in terms of yards allowed per game. The Colts are probably the better team overall, but I'm not sure I trust Rivers on the road against an aggressive defense like the Bears that pressures the quarterback and can force turnovers. The Bears also announced that Foles is going to be the starting quarterback this week, which makes me feel a lot more confident about that Chicago offense. I really think Foles could pick the lock in Chicago and turn things around offensively. Got to like the 3 free points here in a game the Bears could win easily win out right.
It's hard to consider backing Arizona -15 here after they have lost three in a row, and the Wildcats offense, which averaged 81.6 points per game through Jan. 18, has averaged 61.3 PPG during the dry spell. Washington State is coming off a 78-74 win over rival Washington, and while prior to this win they lost 4 in a row, I still have to take the points here with the way Arizona has looked offensively in their last 3 games.
UT Arlington is the better team and just hung 81 points on the Ragin Cajuns and UL Monroe team that has dropped four straight games and is the bottom of the Sun Belt standings. Their last game close but they were beaten badly in their previous three games. Tough spot for the Warhawks to break their losing trend tonight. Lay the four points.
I don't see BG putting up more than 10 points in this game. The weather could be a factor but Buffalo should be able to roll today. BG owns the 125th ranked offense and the 125th ranked defense and one of the worst teams in all of D1 football. Buffalo wins 42-10
The Rice Owls likely won't pull the upset on Marshall, but I do expect them to keep this game closer than double digits. Rice has been competitive in conference play, highlighted by its 23-20 home loss to 7-1 Louisiana Tech in late September. Rice doesn't give up a whole lot of points, so it's unlikely that Marshall will run away with this one. The Thundering Herd's last two wins have come by margins of five and three points and Rice has proven to be gritty all season.
***UNDER 65*** The 49ers are marginally better than the Blue Raiders on offense, but the Blue Raiders have just been slightly better defensively. Both teams rush for exactly 5.5 yards per attempt and both teams allow exactly 5 yards per rushing attempt. That isn't very inspiring to back the over in this one. Considering both teams are middling on offense, you might see them put up 50+ points but 65 just doesn't add up here statistically.
Even without top running back Marvin Kinsey, Colorado State has enough firepower and defense to take care of the Rebels. UNLV pulled off an upset at Vanderbilt on the road, but since were blown out at Fresno State and lost at home to San Diego State. I like CSU -7 here even if it is more of a fade of UNLV.
I like the Marlins tonight for a few reasons: Smith has the edge over Vargas. Yes I know, Jason Vargas has pitched well this year, but he has a 4.34 ERA on the road, while Caleb Smith has a 1.84 ERA here at home for the year. Also the Mets don't travel well, New York is just 8-26 in their last 34 games on the road. Miami has struggled at home this year, but I feel that they have the edge(s) in this matchup.