Phoenix is actually shooting a lot better from the field than Milwaukee, but the Bucks have negated that by completely dominating the paint. For instance, Milwaukee’s offensive rebounding rate is more than 12% higher than Phoenix’s in this series. The Bucks are outscoring the Suns in the paint 49.5-38.0 points per game and are scoring nearly double the second-chance points per game in the Finals. Phoenix plays with far too much finesse and needs outside jumpers to go down, which isn’t as reliable or consistent as Milwaukee’s physical style of play. Should be another close game but the smart money is on the team dominating the paint and that’s the Bucks.
Letâ€™s look at the offensive production in this matchup. The Miners are averaging 72.3 points per game on 42.8 percent shooting while the Blazers are averaging 74.3 points per game on 45.7 percent shooting. These teams are shooting well from the field and the defenses arenâ€™t good enough to stop them. UAB has a top 10 defense but they will have their hands full tonight against a UTEP team with 6 guys that can score in double digits. We should see a lot of points in this one. UAB has been tough at home, but I like UTEP to hang around and get the cover.
Money trickling in on Atlanta because T-Wolves are short handed with Rubio and KAT out tonight. But for Atlanta the big question mark is the status of De'Andre Hunter who is still be shown as "game time decision" with a sore knee per Rotoworld. Hunter scored a team-high 25 points on 8-of-15 shooting in the first Hawks-Timberwolves game and was key in making Minnesotaâ€™s SG Malik Beasley and SF Josh Okogie essentially non-factors. This wager is all about Hunter tonight, keep an eye out during tip-off to see if he is warming up...if he is then I like Hawks to take advantage of the short handed T-Wolves.
The Northern Illinois Huskies can't win, can't score and they certainly can't cover numbers despite getting free points nightly. The Ball State Cardinals have consistency issues, but they've been able to win here and there and they've had a great deal of recent success ATS.
The Utes are an underdog after a 1-2 sluggish start to the season. Utah finally got in the win column with a 30-24 victory over Oregon State last Saturday night. The Buffaloes enter this game 4-0 and a slight favorite here tonight. Colorado has exceeded expectations in year one under Karl Dorrell and has an outside chance at claiming its second Pac-12 South crown in school history with a victory over the Utes on Saturday coupled with a USC loss to UCLA.
The Buffaloes have been consistently strong on offense in 2020. Utah has a tough-as-nails defense once again and their offense has gotten going the last 2 games with Freshman Ty Jordan running the ball. I think this game is going to be close, and while Colorado is 4-0 ATS and have been a covering machine, this Utah team will be the toughest defense they've faced all season. Not a lot of value in this game, but in a game that could go either way, I will take the free points here with Utah and put something small on the UNDER in what should be a defensive game.
I would expect Pitt to hold Virginia Techâ€™s offense in check. The Hokies will find some room on the ground to move the ball, just enough to open things up for Hooker to challenge Pittâ€™s secondary. Defensively, the Hokies allow a big play or two, but build off last weekâ€™s success. This one comes down to the wire, but Hooker is the difference in this one as he makes enough plays to win the game and cover the 3.
Pittsburgh +163 - Musgrove is coming off his best outing of the season, allowing just three hits and one walk with 11 strikeouts in six scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals last Sunday.