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NC State routed Duke 88-66 in Raleigh Feb. 19. The Wolfpack held the ACCs top offense to 26-of-69 shooting from the floor (37.7%) in a game controlled wire-to-wire. Like Duke, NC State has followed that first meeting with a win and two losses. The game the Wolfpack did win (Saturday vs. Pitt) was one which saw the Panthers lead for all but the final five minutes.
I don't see Duke shooting as poorly as they did in the first game, but it's still hard to consider laying this kind of chalk in a rivalry game. Duke should win this game, but I think NC State does just enough to cover this thick spread. Prediction - Duke 80, NC State 68
NC State Wolfpack 18-11 (13-15-1 ATS) vs Duke Blue Devils 23-6 (14-15 ATS) This should be a redemption game for the Blue Devils who lost to the Wolfpack by 22 last time they met. The Wolfpacks Markel Johnson had a career high in that game of 28. If the Wolfpack are wanting an at large big in the NCAA Tournament they need to win this and have a strong showing in the ACC tournament. Right now they are a bubble team. Markel Johnsons ball handling has kept the turnovers for the Wolfpack low which helps in close games. Since that game NC State hasnt looked that good only going 1-4 ATS in the last 5. Duke has been flat as of late losing 3 of their last 4 and going 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Defense has been an issue in some of these games, but in the Virginia game they just lost it was an offensive issue. They shot just 26% from the field and made 4 3s for a 23% avg from behind the arc. As long as the C.J. Bryce and Markell Johnson can outscore Vernon Carey Jr. and Tre Jones under 30 combined pointes the NC State Wolfpack will cover the +12.5.
I cannot justify laying this many with the current state of Duke. Could they win by 25 sure. I just don't think that's the outcome. NC ST desperately needs another quality win here being smack dab on the bubble. with Duke only being 8-7 ATS as a home fav I can see an 8-10 pt win for them.