Over is 23-8-2 in the last 33 meetings. Nuggets are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
My strong play is: OVER 213.5 Lean: Denver +6.5
"Lean" is not necessary a bet.
Player betting trends:
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has 11+ points in the Lakers last 4 games. (9.5) Nikola Jokic has 14+ rebounds in the Nuggets last 4 playoff games when facing elimination. (9.5) Jerami Grant has 17+ points in the Nuggets last 2 games. (11.5) Michael Porter Jr. has 13+ points in 4 of the Nuggets last 5 games against the Lakers. (11.5) LeBron James has 29+ points in 6 of his last 7 games in Game 5s of a playoff series. (26.5) Anthony Davis has 31+ points in 7 of his last 9 games with his team as a favorite against the Nuggets. (28.5) Jamal Murray has 7+ assists in the Nuggets last 4 Game 5s of a playoff series. (6.5)
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Based on value, the Nuggets +165 is the only bet here. With PF Anthony Davis banged up with an ankle injury, expect the Lakers offense to look a bit sluggish, and Jamal Murray is playing at another level right now.