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Miami lost to the Nets in Brooklyn 117-113 on January 10th. Spencer Dinwiddie had a smooth 26 points and 14 assists that night, this will not occur again tonight in Miami. Miami will come out play solid defense early and get out to big lead. Favorite play is Miami Heat 1st Half -4.
MIA is back on track after a convincing win last night and while they are on the backend of a B2B, it's at home where they are 24-4 SU. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 but the Nets are also on the tail end of a B2B after a beatdown in ATL last night. Miami holds opponents to just 11.8 fastbreak points per game which is 3rd in the NBA so they hold a clear advantage against the Nets who like to cause turnovers and score quickly.
Spencer Finished with 24 Points, 13 Assists (1 turnover), 8/8 FT 44.4% 3PT last night but he will have much more difficult assignments tonight with Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler likely sharing the defensive duty of stopping the leader of this offense. I don't think the Nets have depth to keep this one close in MIA tonight. MIA lost 7 of 10 but got a boost of confidence last night and this is a game they should win. They were on a tough, tough road trip in the slide.
Brooklyn 10-19 away. I took the over on them last night. They got absolutely demolished against a bad Hawks team overall. They're 1-4 ATS last 5 overall but did cover 5 straight before that. Nets 2-4 SU last 6 away. Nets avg 110 ppg while giving up 111 defensively. Heat are 24-4 at home. Led by Butler and Co. Just handled Dallas and covering no problem. Took Heat last night. Heat have not been covering going 3-7 ATS last 10 overall. They're 2-1 SU last 3 at home. They've been traveling consistently before this home stretch. They've also hit the over 6 straight games. Prediction- Have Heat winning this. After beating Dallas this should be much easier to dispatch a bad Nets team. There's not 1 player on the Nets that could take over a game like Butler and they have nobody big enough to take on Adebayo. Don't tell me Allen or Jordan will. Both teams on B2B but Heat the better team statistically and personnel.
Give me the Nets +7, as they have played the Heat tough in each of the previous two meetings. Yes, Brooklyn has some health issues, as Irving (shoulder) is sidelined for the remainder of the season. But Miami struggles defensively and Brooklyn has a big stats edge rebounding.
I will trust Miami to win against the Nets. I will also do PPRS on another parlay slip which will be for Duncan Robinson to make over 3.5 three point shots. He is a human 3 point Uzi when he gets in the game. I'm sure he has shot more 3's than 2's This also screams moneyline I'm 50/50 on the over under total if Iguodala and Butler playing they will heavily contest perimeter shooting of LeVert and Dinwiddie
Both of these teams will be logging their 3rd game in 4 nights. Both are also on the second half of a back to back. The Heat and Nets have both been underwhelming on Defense the last 3 games. I have to lean over in this one. I dont see any value as far as sides.