Chicago Bulls 16-28 (20-23-1 ATS) are playing Milwaukee Bucks 38-6 (25-19 ATS) on Jan 20, 2020, 5:00pm ET at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks opened at -14.5 in Vegas and the current line is MIL N/A.
The Bulls make there way to Milwaukee to square off against division leading Bucks. This will be a huge challenge for this inept squad with limited skilled position players. The Bulls are 16-28 and sit 4th in the Central. They're not even close to filling a spot for the playoffs. There foes on the other hand lead the division by a wide margin and you could argue the Bucks could be the next champions. Not so much talk with the Bulls. They're led by Z. Lavine who scores 25 ppg and big man L. Markkanen contributes 15 pts and 6 rebs. The next three players avg 10+ points per game. Chicago avgs about 105 ppg shooting 43% from the floor. They're near the bottom of the league in most offensive statistics. This team gives up 107 defensively while opp teams shoot 46%. So the opponent shoots higher percentage shots better then the Bulls which is why Chicago is 1-4 SU last 5 away only covering one time. Not great stats. This team will have trouble keeping up with the Bucks. It's that simple to decipher.
Milwaukee who leads the Central division with a 38-6 record will most likely have to cover another double digit spread for this one. The Bucks are 4-0 SU last 4 at home and wagers have had to deal with Milwaukee having to cover 4 straight double digit spreads at home which they only covered once in that time frame. They are 4-1 ATS last 5 overall though. This team led by Giannis who avgs 30 pts, 5 assists and 12 rebs will have his way with Chicago no problem. Middleton adds 19 pts and 5 rebs. Bledsoe contributes 15 pts and 5 assists. I could go down the list of this veteran led bench but they have so much quality depth. This team is stacked. All this quality leads to the Bucks reign at the top of the NBA in scoring at 119 per game. They shoot 48% from the floor which is right behind the Lakers who are #1. The defense gives up 106 which is right around what the Bulls score on the avg. These double digit spreads are getting a little tedious and redundant. Nobody wants to wager on the Bulls hoping they can keep this game close. I understand there are upsets every week but let's be real about this. Bucks even if they sit Giannis wins this game. Stats and trends states this.
Key Betting Trends:
Bulls 7-14 away
Bulls 1-4 SU last 5 away
Bulls 2-7-1 ATS overall last 10
Bucks 20-2 home
Bucks 4-0 last 4 home
Bucks 1-3 ATS most recent double digit home favorites
Bulls W. Carter Out
Bulls O. Porter Out
Bucks R. Lopez Ques
Betting Prediction and Pick:
Bucks win this game. Watch the line movement. The trend tells us Bucks won't cover this spread at home.
Bucks are sweeping this season series whether you like it or not. They've won the last 10 H2H's & are 20-2 at home this season.
Bucks scored an avg of 120 & allowed an avg of 109 on their last 5 at home. Bulls scored an avg of 105 & allowed an avg of 110 on their last 5 on the road. Bucks have out-rebounded the Bulls on their last 5 by an avg of 19 Bucks outscore opponents by an avg of 13 on one day of rest. Bucks are 8-5 ATS at home against a team below .500% Bulls are 4-12 ATS after a win.
Not a fan of big spreads but I gotta take the Bucks here, they're way to solid of a team.
This total of 225 seems high considering how much Chicago has struggled to score of late with all of their injuries. The Bulls are the 25th-ranked offense and while the Bucks should have no problem scoring in this one, I don't see the Bulls being able to add enough points to get this one over the total.