Missing Murray, Harris and Millsap for tonight is around 39 pts combined Denver is losing in production. Jokic avgs about 19 so he'll have about 30 pts shooting his usual 50%. Barton shoots 54% avging about 15 so he'll be over 20 pts tonight. Porter Jr. Will play more and add more pts. What's really the issue is Denver will be really thin off the bench. Pacers are a good team. Porter is no match for Sabonis. Jokic will bully whoever tries to guard him. Morris is mismatch against Brogdon. Hoping Denver slows this game down to a halt and have Indi have the least amount of possessions possible.
The last time Denver lost against the Pacers at home was back in 2007. Before that loss, they played each other 10 times and Denver covered a spread of 1.5 in 9 of those games. However, Denver is very shorthanded in this one as Murray, Millsap & Harris are out. They had a tough time controlling the Warriors of all teams on the court and I can see the Pacers pulling of an upset here.
Indiana is 17-10 & outscore opponents by an avg of 5 on one day of rest. Denver is 5-3 ATS & outscore opponents by an avg of 7 on 2 days of rest. Indiana is 6-4 ATS on the road after a win. Denver is 6-10 ATS at home after a win.
These teams rank pretty evenly all around the board. I'm edging towards the Pacers here since Denver is missing most of it's starters.