Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals 9/15/2021

Predictions & Game Chat

@rc

2 D

Look at Miami
The Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals are playing the third and final game of their series this afternoon. Miami will have Trevor Rogers on the mound to face Washington's Josh Rogers. This is a matchup between two bottom of the barrel teams in the NL East but I like the Marlins this afternoon with Trevor Rogers on the mound.

Washington is 2-12 in their last 14 home games against National League East teams. They are also 4-11 in their last 15 home games against left handed pitchers. Trevor Rogers has made 12 starts on the road this year and has a 2.62 ERA in those starts. I feel good backing him against this Nationals lineup this afternoon.

Marlins ML -123

$100 | MIA -122
Although Miami starter Trevor Rogers may not have the w/l record to show it, he has an outstanding season. His 2.73 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are backed by advanced metrics such as woba, slg, k% in the league's 75th percentile. Miami is one the league's worst offensive teams ranking near the bottom in woba, obp and slg.

As the Nationals look to wrap up a disappointing season they are getting a look at left hander Josh Rogers. In his two appearances, Rogers has a 1.30 WHIP and 3.65 ERA. The Nationals are a top 10 offense in terms of WOBA and are above average in SLG.

In their 5 most recent matchups the run total has gone under in 4 of these games.

Despite Miami's offensive struggles, I'm backing Trevor Rogers with the Marlins on the moneyline.

$250 | MIA -122
The Marlins are going to send Trevor Rogers on the mound trying to take the series in DC. His ERA on the season is 2.73 and he was an All-Star but he has not pitched the same since coming off the bereavement list. Since rejoining the team his ERA is 6.23 and he allowed a season-high 4 runs his last time out. The team has also only won 3 of his last 12 starts even when he was pitching well. He doesn't get much run support which makes sense given the Marlins' offensive woes.

Making only his third start on the season Josh Rogers will try to give the Nats a series win. Luckily for him, the red-hot Juan Soto will be out there to put some runs on the board. Despite most of the hitters being traded away, leaving him no protection, Soto has a .438 average this month. He's entering this game fresh off a 3-hit night and seems poised to finish the season strong.

Pick: The Nationals take this one in my book. Neither team is good or playing well, but I think the Nationals offense will do more in this one. I don't anticipate much scoring from either side though.
$100 | WSH +108
$100 | UNDER 8.5
The most important factor in handicapping a baseball game is the starting pitching matchup. Miami’s advantage in that category leads to some serious value on the Marlins. Trevor Rogers has been fantastic throughout the season, helping his team crack the top 10 in team ERA.

He is facing a Washington lineup that is not threatening outside of Bell and Soto. On the other side, Josh Rogers is making his third-career start.

He might be coming off a quality start, but that came against a bad Pittsburgh lineup. I have much more faith in the Marlins pitching situation, so they have plenty of value as slight underdogs.

Prediction: Miami to win
$250 | MIA -1.5
MIA vs WAS Consensus Picks

O: 5.5% picked Washington Nationals on Covers.com
$100 | MIA -122
Betting Prediction: The super computer is giving each team a 50% chance of winning and the Total will go Under.

Full matchup at: OddsShark.com
$100 | MIA -122
$100 | UNDER 8.5
Miami Marlins Trevor Rogers are playing Washington Nationals Josh Rogers on September 15, 2021, 1:05 PM ET at Nationals Park. The Nationals opened at -120 and the current line is WSH +107.

The Marlins are ranked #29th in offense and 13th in defense and the Nationals are ranked #17th in offense and 24th in defense.

Pitcher Summary (based on last 3 games):

Starting for the Marlins is Trevor Rogers (S/O: 3 WHIP: 2.9 ER: 3.2 IP: 4.2) vs Josh Rogers (S/O: 4.3 WHIP: 1.7 ER: 2.7 IP: 3.8) for the Nationals.

After crunching 135 data points, CaptainObvious's predicted score is Marlins 5 to Nationals 4.
$100 | MIA -122
$100 | UNDER 8.5
The Nationals Park has an open roof so weather should be considered for today's game. It will be Partly Cloudy with 57% cloud cover and a 1% chance for rain. The temperature is 86° with 51% humidity and winds at 13 mph SSW.

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