Two hot quarterbacks and two hot teams, The Chargers ride a three-game winning streak while the Ravens ride a four-game winning streak. The Chargers are 2-0 on the road; the Ravens are 2-0 at home. If you subscribe to the theory that the home team gets three points, then this would be a straight pick 'em on a neutral field.
And keep in mind that the Ravens are operating on short rest following a grueling comeback win in overtime Monday night. This could be a tough spot for the Ravens and I'm not betting against Justin Herbert and this Bolts offense right now. Give me the 3 free points in a game the Bolts could win out right.
The Dolphins have been a big disappointment with a 1-4 start to what was supposed to be a promising season, and now their backs are against the wall. The good news is Miami gets their QB Tua Tagovailoa back on Sunday and are playing a Jacksonville squad that has lost 20 in a row overall and has dropped eight of its last nine games by double-digits.
But how much of a boost will Tagovailoa really provide? Will he be fully healthy? Will he be rusty? Even if he is healthy, this is a guy who struggled as a rookie and completed just 54.8 percent of his passes for a 74.0 rating before going down in September. If indeed the Dolphins are down and out, Trevor Lawrence might have a shot at his first win here.
Bottomline - the Dolphins and Jaguars are bad teams with major issues on both sides of the ball, although Miami hopes to have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back for this one, I think this is a coin flip game so I'll take the points.
Spenser Watkins on the hill for the Orioles, and this will be just his third career big-league start— and his first on the road. While he has allowed just a single run in each of his two previous starts and sports a 1.74 ERA through 10.1 innings, he could be due for some regression as he posted a 3.58 ERA with Triple-A Norfolk before getting called up. He has as many walks as he does strikeouts (six), and the bullpen behind him has not been good. Baltimore’s bullpen ERA of 6.75 is the highest in all of baseball, and they have really struggled to limit the damage from opposing hitters all season. The Rays have a big advantage when it comes to the bullpen, and given their previous success against the Orioles this season, I think this is a good spot to back Tampa Bay on the RL -1.5 (-118).
Griffin Jax is projected to start for Minnesota, and this will be just his second career big-league start. The rookie right-hander has an 8.66 ERA and 1.70 WHIP through five appearances this season, and opponents are hitting a strong .310 against him. Chicago possesses one of the most well-rounded lineups in the American League, and they should be able to give the young right-hander some problems. White Sox RL -1.5 (-118)
I think the good hitting will get to the bad bullpens tonight. Two top 5 offenses going against really bad bullpens on both sides tonight. Low scoring early but I predict one (if not both pens) get chewed up late.
Anderson is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA. Walker is 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA. Slight lean on Atlanta here as the Mets offense is in tatters...several Mets hitters are out of the lineup such as 1B Pete Alonso, 3B J.D. Davis, 2B Jeff McNeil, OF Brandon Nimmo and OF Michael Conforto. Going with the Braves and Unders here.
Garcia is taking the injured Corey Kluberâ€™s spot in the Yankees rotation, but he has not been sharp this spring. In addition to an iffy effort at the Major League level, he has walked 12 batters while posting a 5.17 ERA in 15 2/3 IP at Triple-A. I'll take my chances with Turnbull and the plus money.
The Knicks game on Saturday would have went under if it wasnâ€™t for the overtime, but in this game there will be no issue keeping the game low scoring. New York's defense will be suffocating and Boston will look to rest key players after clinching 7th seed in play-in tournament playoffs.
***RAYS -115*** Tyler Glasnow has been elite to start the season ranking in the top ten in ERA, WHIP and Strikeouts. He has been even better on the road, with a 1.06 ERA in 2 starts with 22 strikeouts. The Angels are 3-0 in Shohei Ohtaniâ€™s starts, but he has yet to make it past the 5th inning. Also the Angels bullpen ranks in the bottom third of the league with a 4.36 ERA. Give me Glasnow and the better pen here.
ROCKETS & UNDERS - The Jazz are 0-3 ATS across their past three as double-digit favorites, but they blasted the Rockets by a 114-99 score in the first meeting on March 12. Don't love it but got to take the 11 points here with Mitchell still out. The value bet is probably on the under 226.5 with Mitchell on the shelf and a Houston's offense that has been very inconsistent.
Canning posted a 3.99 ERA in 11 starts in the shortened 2020 season. Stripling allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks over 3 1/3 innings on Saturday as he searched for his swing-and-miss curveball. With Robbie Ray returning soon from injury, the versatile Stripling is competing to keep his spot in the rotation. Got to take the Angels here with Canning at even money.
Gonzales was shaky in his opening day start in which he gave up a career-high-tying three runs and three walks. On the other side Berrios held the Brewers hitless over six innings and matched a career-high with 12 strikeouts on April 3. But -200 makes this one unplayable.
UPSET ALERT How ready is SMU going to be today? The program hasnt played since 2/8, while Cincinnati is coming off a win over ECU last week to close out a decent 2nd half of the season. Cincinnati was able to win the first meeting on the road back in early January by forcing next to nothing from the outside and by making a few more threes.
SMU didn't really impress this year and now could be sluggish after the layoff. Cincinnati is a good team and other than the Vandy game they have looked great down the stretch. Love the points in a game Cinci could win out right.
Both teams 2-0 and Wofford is averaging 99 PPG. Richmond showed that they are also capable of putting big points and the Spiders improved in their defense by allowing just 0.84 points per possession which is better than a 0.94 record last year. Big step up in competition for the Terriers today but I think they stay within earshot.
Giants will be led by Colt McCoy today who is a serviceable QB and doesn't turn the ball over. Double digits here against a banged up Seahawks team just feels like too many points. I see the Giants keeping it close despite everything that is stacked up against them.
The Vikings have entered the easier part of their schedule. The constant wins have given this team the confidence to beat even a talented team like the Panthers. Bridgewater has a big day against his former team, but itâ€™s not enough. Vikings 31, Panthers, 27
I have literally zero reason to believe that Michigan State will win this game, which probably means the Spartans will upset the Wildcats in this game. Not in love with this side bet, but I do expect a low-scoring game, Northwestern has a stout defense, but its offense isnâ€™t all too impressive. Michigan State is going to struggle moving the ball, no doubt about it, but if the offense can sustain drives, eliminate mental mistakes and not turn the ball over (and the defense can generate a takeaway or two itself), I think the first to 20 points or so can win this game.
Itâ€™s nearly impossible to put any confidence in either team at the moment, but I will go with Michigan simply because they are at least coming off a win and may have some extra juice in practice this week. In an absolute pillow fight, Michigan is better by a couple feathers.
This spread should be double digits IMO. Central Michigan has a good offense on the year so far and it is definitely a team that has not been stopped on the year that much and I don't see that changing against winless Eastern Michigan.
Miami and Fitzmagic looked really good against San Fran last Sunday, but that may have been more of a function of 49'ers playing like crap.
After the Jets lost to the Broncos in Week 4, it looked like their next winnable game might be against the Dolphins. Then their meeting got moved up to Week 6, and the Dolphins dismantled the San Fransisco 49ers last week. Hard to like anything about NY Jets here, I predict the misery continues for Gang Green.
Thick spread by I've got Dolphins here by double digits.
This Steelers team is dangerous, with one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, and a good set of skill players. This season, the Browns have been equipped with the best coaching they've had in the 2.0 era, and the offensive line is also ready to face the pass rush.
My issue from this game comes with how Baker Mayfield will handle pressure, as he's often running out of clean pockets and straight into pressure this season. I think the Steelers exploit that to a degree here, so hopefully, Stefanski has some tricks up his sleeve to negate this.
Hunt will be largely held in check as he was last week. Just feels like the Browns are dealing with too many injury issues to think they win this game, but I think it's going to be close for 4 quarters and the hook here with +3.5 is the deciding factor for me as I think it's a 3 point game either way. Taking the 3.5 points.
Both of these teams play very fast and are both top 30 in the nation in plays per game and bottom 30 in plays per game allowed. The Wolfpack and the Devils have terrible defenses, allowing 34.25 and 31.5 points per game respectively and both outside Top 100 in the nation in total defense. I think we see both teams hit 30+ points here offensively and this one should hit the over as the expense of two bad defenses and two solid offenses. Slight lean with Duke and the points but safer bet is on the OVER 60.
We finally have two games in a row for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and theyâ€™re finally pretty healthy. After how Louisville looked against Georgia Tech last week the knee jerk reaction is to lay the 17 points with the Irish here. But Notre Dame hasn't been tested yet this season so maybe a bit presumptive to think Notre Dame is going to blow the Cards out of the water â€” then again â€” maybe itâ€™s not. Does Notre Dame deserve their #4 ranking? We'll see but I think the Cardinals have a puncherâ€™s chance with their perimeter speed and will score enough to stay within earshot.