Picks Monday Jun, 24, 2019
2 Picks
$220 RISKED
MLB 9:40pm EST
UNDER 8.5
 
Dodgers -123
Arizona +113
MLB 10:05pm EST
OVER 7.5
 
Colorado -115
Giants +105
Money Risked represents $100 wagers. No actual money is being bet here.
  • @Natdog • 4h

    This line keeps trending the D'backs way and isn't that far from a pick really. Just a little edge to the dodgers at this line compared to the -152 open. If the D'backs are going to win (the way vegas is indicating) it will have to be cause Grienke pitched well. I know Kershaw has historically struggled in Arizona but I don't think this D'back lineup is going to crush Kershaw for 7 plus runs. SO with that said, I like the under in anitcapation of a 3-2 game or something like that. The total movement is saying the opposite of my theory and went up half a run since open but I like my theory still.

    My Pick: Under 8.5 70%
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    • 4
  • @Natdog • 4h

    Pomernz pitched a freaking gem against the dodgers and he can do that from time to time. He's definatly in the right ball park to succeed and is a very ball park dependent pitcher. He got lit up in Coors (all fly ball pitchers do though) then went to oakland where he rejuvinated his career. Signed a big deal in Boston (another hitters park) and got lit up and had a horrible season. The he went to san diego and had a great year. But now he's in SF and you'd think he'd have better numbers but he really doens't. The rockies may not have story and he's be in a decent start, but they have plenty of right handed batters. Blackmon and Murphy have great numbers againsgt left handed pitchers too and I think the rockies put up some runs in this spot. Thne Jon gray may be in trouble himself because he has a history of being wild and having bad comand. THat won't bode well with the Giants team who's on top half of the league in walks. Hit the over

    My Pick: Over 7.5 70%
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    • 14
  • @Natdog • 1d

    oh this is going to be a smash spot! Callin up Voth who struggled in his brief apperence last year and isn't that good in the minor. The Braves have four of the top five barrel hitters in the league in their lineup and Soroka is leading the league in ground ball rate and soft contact. This shoudl be -200 IMO but I'll take -150 all day here

    My Pick: Atlanta -152 70%
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    • 81
  • @Natdog • 1d

    I love the brewers in this one today. DeSclafani has a history of getting rocked by lefties and the brewers are throwing 7 his way today. Not to mention some very good left handed bats and i don't think it's going to go well for him. On the other side, Woodroff has been pitching great and has a high strike out rate and with a siera around 3. While the reds have been hitting well, I think he holds htem off and I think we possibly see double digit runs on the brewers side

    My Pick: Milwaukee -200 70%
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    • 66
  • @Natdog • 2d

    Tyler Beede has been pitching great and while I don't know what happened to zach godley, he gets the benifit of facing the Giants. I think this total is way to high for these teams. Godly still has a good ground ball rate that will get him out of trouble when he's in Jams and Beede has looked great since he beat Kershaw and he's shut down his last two opponents. I'll take under all day here

    My Pick: Under 10 70%
    • Comment
    • 95
  • @Natdog • 2d

    I agree with James below me and I think the dodgers get the best of lambert. His first two starts were great but that's not who he is. He had a ERA of 5 in the minors and I don't think this is the best enviorment for him. Ryu has video game numbers right now and it's not like he's new to the league. I have to believe he will get hit at some point and I like the over in this one. I love the dodgers but hate that line and I think the over is a great spot here. I woudln't be shocked if the dodgers put up 6-8 themself if I'm being honest

    My Pick: Over 8 70%
    • Comment
    • 78
  • @Natdog • 3d

    I'm done taking teams -220 or more but that doesn't mean I won't fit them into some kind of parlay. I just don't want to risk 3 units to win one because you will get burned more than you profit in the long run. But today, I have to get some kind of action here. Sale has been pure fire since his early season struggles and today he gets to face a blue jay team with 7 high strike out batters. I'm blown away his stirke out prop is only 9.5 -114 over because I don't know how he doesn't get at least 10 strike outs. Thornton on the other side isn't that great and I don't see how he will be successful in this envioremnet at all. I love the redsox here but i'm going to find another game to parlay it with because I dont' like taking home teams run lines and I will never lay -305. The bluejays are prop baseball players and no pro team should ever get that kind of line

    My Pick: Boston -305 70%
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    • 84
  • @Natdog • 4d

    There is a reason this total went up when you look at the pitchers. I don't know what's going on with Jimmy nelson. His injury really screwed him up and his velocity is down and his walk rate is through the roof in this small sample size this year (16.2%). None of his stats look good and if you believe he's not the guy we saw a few years ago when he was dominating then you will like this over as well. Roark has some improvements to his peripherals but his struggles to left handed batters is real and that's not a good issue to have when facing the brewers. I'd love to say "just take the brewers" but I can't trust Nelson and the reds are coming off two big wins against the astros top aces. Roark is giving up a wOBA of .388 ot lefties and the brewers have a .376 team wOBA against right handed pitchers. I think we are going to see some hits. 5.5 is a high number but it won't feel that bad if there's a 2 or three run shot early

    My Pick: Over 9.5 70%
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    • 89
  • @Natdog • 4d

    Today is a crazy day where he have a lot of guys that we have never seen before. That is the case today with the marlins as they called up Zac Gallen. The scouting report shows that he had great strike out stuff in the minors witha crazy 33.6% strike out rate in triple A. I highly doubt that carries over to the major league level but it's still impresive. Gallen was a top prospect and was a part of Marcell Ozuna trade and the Marlins have high hopes for this guys. I'm going to be watching him but I'm hoping the cards can't figure him out and I kind of like the marlins first five. Wainwright is coming off a hamstring injury and he hasn't looked that great before the injury. I just like the value

    My Pick: Miami +165 70%
    • Comment
    • 80
  • @Natdog • 4d

    We don't have that big of a sample size on Suarez but he is fairing out as a middle of the road pitcher. He's a fly ball pitcher who only has a stike out rate of 21% with a decent walk rate. So it's not like I'm that in love with him but he has a great match up. It's the pitcher on the other side that makes me like this game. Clayton richard and his goofy as wind up has looked horrible and his move from San Deigo to tornoto has not been kind. He has the lowest stike out rate in the league and he's facing the team that also has the lowest stike out rate to left handed pitching. It doesn't help his case that he has to go against the best hitter in baseball. I just don't see this ending well for Mr. Richard and I like the angels at this price. I think the bluejays have some promise for the future but Richard is just that bad this year. Sure his ERA is a 7.52 but it's a 10.22 his last two games and his SIERA is almost six on the season as well as 5.58 his last two.

    My Pick: Los Angeles -143 70%
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    • 110
  • @Natdog • 6d

    The braves have been hot yet they are home dogs. I get people thinking there is a lot of value on the braves but lets dig a little deeper into tonights pitchers. First thing that stuck out to me is the face Julio has a ERA just under three. I found this hard to believe because i've been following this guy since he was called up and that just doesn't seem like the Julio I know. Well his advance metrics tell us that 2.92 ERA is not sustainable and he's been on the better side of luck because his SIERA is a 5. His walk rate is 11% which is high and this is a guy who is regulary at 70 pitches after three or four innings because he's all over the place. I see a lot of regression coming his way and I see why the mets have moved as much as they have. Degrom on the other hand has a lot of things going for him and he's on the bad side of luck because he can't control his run support. I have a feeling Julio is going to have his blow up game today and I like the Mets F5 a lot today because I don't want it coming down to bullpens

    My Pick: New York -121 70%
    • Comment
    • 151
  • @Natdog • 7d

    I loved seeing the post game interviews of Yamamoto in his last start. One of the reasons we love sports is to see guys work their ass off to finally see it pay off and I loved his emotion have that amazing start in he debut. Yamamota showed great control in his debut striking out out five and only walking 2 guys and giving up 3 hits in 7 innings of work. Granted he's not pitching in Miami but St Louis isn't a bad park for pitching either and I think he holds his own again tonight against the cards who haven't been rolling offensivly as of late. I also love Flaherty and think he's going to be a top pitching in this league and lets face it, the marlins are still the marlings. This game actaully opened at 8.5 and went down half a run quickly because I think sharps were pounding this line and with good reason. I'll take the under as well

    My Pick: Under 8 70%
    • Comment
    • 144
  • @Natdog • 7d

    My god what is wrong with me????? I was burned once again by these dodgers and perhaps i'm on tilt but I'm pounding the shit out of them today. Kershaws last loss came from these gaints even though he only gave up two runs. But he dominates this Giants team and I don't think lighting can strike twice and the Giants pull off another win. In fact I'm pouunding the run line because if you look at the advanced metrics Shaun Anderson has some regression coming his way and his SIERA is a run and half higher than his ERA. I've been running so cold but that's going to happen and I've always said it's about trusting the process as opposed to the results because if you have solid reasining and edges you will be ahead long term. This isn't a sprint so I'm taking the dodgers run line at -120

    My Pick: Los Angeles -240 70%
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    • 112
  • @Natdog • 7d

    It's hard not to like the braves and Soroka in this spot. He has a ground ball rate of 57% and has great control illistrated by his 6.3% walk rate. He's just league average in his strike outs right now hoovering around 21% but theres and his SIERA does show a little regression and implys that his ERA should be 3.93. But there is something that needs to be factored into this match up as well, and it's the fact the Braves are fucking hot right now! THey have been smashing and are really have things going. I want to ride the under in this spot but I can't because I'm scared the braves will put up double digits again so I'm going to leave that alone and just ride the Braves ML

    My Pick: Atlanta -152 70%
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    • 80
  • @Natdog • 7d

    Here's the thing you need to keep in mind when Maeda is pitching. He has only gone over 90 pitches four times in 13 starts and Dave Roberts is a pain in the ass because he has such a short leash with his starters. I think this lines up well for Maeda but I think he's limited to 5 innings possibly 6 if he has some short outtings. Tyler Beede really isn't that bad and don't be fooled by his 8.46 ERA. He's had some bad luck and his advanced inplied ERA (SIERA) is a 5.2 which is still pretty high but it's not 8.46. I just hate these kind of monely lines but I don't see how the dodgers lose this game at home. I'll still side with the Dodgers and this price mainly because this game is in LA. I'd be worried if it was in SF but I htink the park favors the Dodgers for sure and I don't see how the Giants pull off a win.

    My Pick: Los Angeles -240 70%
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    • 111
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