at this point of the season we see nothing but huge favorites and dogs. It's really hard because we just know better and know there will be some upsets. Well I kind of like the rockies in this one at this price because of the splits of Flaherty. While he's a great pitcher he does have issues against lefties. His strike outs drop from 31% to 20% and his ISO goes from .149 to .194 from righties to lefties. He will have to face five lefties and some really good ones. I'm not in love with Lmbert but he has been servicable as of late and why not take the rockies and all their left handed bats at two to one
Sure this is the astros and grienke is a top pitcher, but I really like them today because of Suarez. So far this season he has an ERA of 6.75 through his first 53 career innings and is allowing a .278 ISO on 46% hard hits. That's such a bad stat line facing any team yet alone the astros who have one of the best line ups in the league. Bregman has a .331 ISO and a .437 wOBA and springer is sitting at .218 ISO with a .412 wOBA and you might as well throw in altuve with his .393 ISO .497 wOBA. We are still just scratchign the surface and this whole lineup just has crazy stats that do not bode well. Grienke is great but he is always prone to at least give up 2 because that's what he does and I woudn't be shocked if the astrops put up 10 plus today. I'll most likely parlay the astros with teh over tonight as square as that sounds but I think that's the play today
I'm rolling with the Over. Lynn has been great but the White Sox current roster has a career .328 batting avg against him and Cease has given up 6 HRs in 4 August starts to go with a +5.50 ERA. That's a low total for a Rangers game going against that kind of pitching.
I really like Trevor Richards and a lot of people are down on him because of his record. Well I hate to tell you this, but records don't mean crap especailly when you've been pitching for the marlins all year. I love this change for him and he's been in decent for as of late and balimore isn't the greatest offensive team out there. Blach is in for a rude awaking because he's used to pitching in San Fran which is considered one of the top pitching parks int he league and now he calls a top ten hitting park home with baltimore. He's allowed 21 earned runs in 15 innings this season and his K rate is only 15% so he's putting a lot of balls into play. not the biggest fan of this line but I do think the rays win easy
Reds +102: I give them a slight Starting pitching and bullpen edge. But the Pirates offense is terrible. Over their last 20, PIT is 29th in runs and OPS and they've been ICE COLD lately, scoring just 10 runs over their last 7 games with a .178 AVG and just 9 extra-base hits. Yikes.
It's late August and so as the lines offer less and less value, we have to think about parlay plays. I like Cleveland to be a part of one of mine (possibly with Philly or the Twins). Plesac has been dealing and coming off the sweep in New York, this is a win the Cleveland bats will certainly make happen.80%
I don't like this line - play the OVER 9.80%
The wind is blowing in at 19 MPH straight from center to home. So this is a boost to picthers like Sanchez who are notoriously known as fly ball pitchers. He only has a strike out rate of 19% on the season but in games like this where he knows he has an advantage with teh wind howling in, I think he's going to be extra aggressive today. Lester and I never seem to get it right. When I think he's due for regression he rocks and when I finally give him credit for pitching well and take him he gets shelled. That's my life but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt today and I'll take the under
I think the Braves have a good possibility of getting to deGrom. Mets are a great story this year but injuries are crippling them. I like the Braves at these odds
Im shocked that the Pirates are the favorites in this one with a pitcher with a 8+ ERA. Reds are the better team with the better line up with the better pitcher. Reds ML is a great value play here
Plesac I don't think is hot right now but he is and can be more than capable. The Royals have had success lately but I just think they are better than the last placed teams they were a part of but don't match against the top teams and the Indians run away with it here tonight.70%
I like the Nationals in this one at plus value. The Cubs are lethal at home but the Nationals are hot right now. They have scored double digits runs in 4 out of their last 6 games. I also like how they match up with struggling Jon Lester. The left-hander owns an awful 7.65 ERA on the month, and the Nats got him for five runs in 4.1 innings in the lone meeting this season. The Nationals have won nine out of their last eleven games and will look to keep it rolling.
Philly has to keep up with the Nationals and Mets so they have to handle their business against the teams that are at the bottom and they should win and they have to pick up some tough ones as well.60%
The Reds are playing slightly better than they have and they carry a small edge going into tonight's game but not much. It feels like the Pirates have begun to shut it down at this stage maybe that's just me but I've got the Reds here.70%
I'm counting on Lester here today. It's time now that the Cubs get all the parts working in order. I said they would pull out their division and they have to pull out what might seem like close games.
Minnesota -1.5 (-120) - I like the Twins on the run line a lot here. Even when Boyd pitches well it hasnt mattered for the Tigers, as theyre 5-16 in his last 21 starts. The Twins are 12-4 in their last 16 games against Detroit, and they should pummel Boyd here. The Tigers are also at a huge rest disadvantage, and they should be pretty tired here. This one wont be close. Betting pick: Twins -1.560%
Philly -1.5 (+120) - Overall, the Phillies are the much better team and have been in much better form than the Marlins entering this game. At the same point, Miamis offense has completely vanished over the last few games and I do not see how this unit will suddenly start scoring runs on Friday. Meanwhile, Philadelphia just swept Boston in Fenway Park and should ride that momentum in this game. Let's get on this Philly RL -1.5.60%
Tampa Bay should be in store for a strong offensive showing that should be more than enough to carry this game over 10 runs tonight. It may be a one-sided affair, but Rays are facing arguably the worst pitching staff in the majors. The over is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings between both ballclubs. Baltimore wins 8-4 type of game.60%
You've got to take the Nats and the plus money in this spot - Sanchez has been solid this season, while Lester hasnt been very good, especially recently. Washington is on fire right now, and they arent going to be slowed down here. And Lester got roughed up the last time he faced this Nationals lineup, and I expect the same thing to happen this afternoon.60%
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