Verlander has been a little shaky this season but got back on track against Seattle in last outing only giving up 1 run in 6 innings. On the other side Smyly hasn't been terrible but Texas is only getting 3-4 innings out of him and that's a problem with the Ranger's weak ass bullpen. Hard to bet this game with these crazy odds, but Houston should certainly win here, the only play is Stro's -1.5 (-140) and the UNDER 9.5 is worth a look as I don't see Texas's anemic offense scoring more than 2 runs tonight.
My Pick: Houston -220 & Under 9.5
Gonzales has found ways to keep the Mariners in games and they're 4-1 this season when he pitches, but he can give up runs and has had an issue keeping the ball out of the air this season. Pena has allowed just one run in his last 8.1 innings and has nine strikeouts during that span. Pena has also won each of his last four home starts and five of his last seven starts overall. I just trust Felix Pena a little more in this matchup and other than last nights 11 runs, the Mariners bats have been cold.
My Pick: Los Angeles -102
Why is this total 10.5? Colorado has no bats and both Velasquez and Marquez have been legit this season, combined they allowed 1 run in 15 innings pitched in their last game and both have an ERA under 2.25. UNDER 10.5 looks like free money
Stanek throws 2 pitches; a dirtball and a slow 90-92mph fastball. Rodriquez you just can't trust either. OVER 8
My Pick: Over 8.5
Is Vargas as bad as his stats say he is? Looks like an easy win for The Cardinals unless Im overlooking something. Are the Mets a favorite due to more fans or is Vegas using an entirely different set of stats?
My Pick: St. Louis +128
This is one of those matchups where I just feel like Junis is going to turn it around. I can never take Sabathia at -164 and don't let this yankee reputation fool you. This is not the real Yankee lineup because they are dealing with injuries. The projected line up has Clint Frazier, Mike Tauchman, Giovanny Urshela, and Kyle Higashioka. Even the heart of their lineup looks semi weak with Voit and Torress batting 3 and 4. This is a coin flip to me so I always side with the plus money
My Pick: Kansas City +154
One thing I noticed about Rodon is he has been using his slider more and his strike outs have gone up a lot since. He had a 17.3% strike out rate last year after his injury and is off to a 30% strike out rate now. His control has looked really good and it's going to be 40 degrees today so the ball won't be popping off bats. This is more important for his counter part Zimmermann who is a contact pitcher anyways who relies on soft contact. I do like the White sox bats this year and I know that most people think they will crush Zimmerman like htey have in the past, but this lineup really hasn't faced him so I think this game stays under.
My Pick: Under 8.5
and over under of 7 in Wrigley field means the first thing you need to do is see how hard the wind is blowing in. You can always tell it's bad whne totals are this low and sure enough it's blowing straight in at 20-25 MPH today. Kelly has shown some really good stuff today and I actually like him as a pitcher. Hendricks has always been a solid pitcher and this Dbacks lineup really isn't anything to fear. I'm going to take the under because a few HR's will turn into outs this game and sometimes that's all you need.
My Pick: Under 7
The one thing I hate about this time of year is I feel we play weather man. We have a lot of games today with horrible weather and it's important to remember to look into weather situations. There is nothing worse than researching the shit out of a game and finding the splits you like and all the stupid analytics that give you and edge just for it to get thrown out of the window because it's pouring rain. For that reason I'll take the under in this game because I really like Berrios and Cobb isn't as horrible as most people assume. hopefully with the weather the ball doesn't travel and the ump opens up the strike zone a little and we don't see much offense.
My Pick: Under 9
Bumgarner is not having a bad season, he is not getting any run support for all his hard work. I think he will have the same problem today. I don't think there will be a lot of scoring today. The under is probably the safer bet.
My Pick: Pittsburgh +102 & Under 7.5
Stripling gave up just 1ER in 8 strong innings of a quality start last week against this Brewers squad. Dodgers lead the league in OPS against righties and Chacin has been way off so far this season. Chacin had a 4.54 ERA through seven March/April starts last season and this early season has looked even worse. He eludes to getting off to slow starts himself in a recent interview. I think he will look better then last time out but still gotta take the Dodger Blue here tonight.
My Pick: Los Angeles -106
F5 Under is really attractive as both these teams rank down near the bottom in OPS this year and Pirates are awful against lefties so Bum should have a strong outting. Lyles has looked magnificant too.
My Pick: Under 7.5
While Zimmerman has looked better this season I like these improved bats in Southside to do what they did last year against him and that's hit him hard. Zimm's ERA was +7.00 in 2018 vs these Sox. Rodon looked great in the Bronx and the Tigers are 27th in F5 runs per game. All over the SOX here!
My Pick: Chicago +100
Love the Jays on First 5 innings at +112. Stroman has an ERA of 1.42 in first 5 and they hit Pineda pretty well last outing. Brooks is nothing to write home about either.
My Pick: Toronto +117
***DOG OF THE DAY*** Kluber has been extremely erratic over his three starts this year; in one he had 6.0 innings, seven hits and one earned, and in the other two he went just 6.0 innings with 10 earned on 14 hits. As for Toussaint, he earned the start with six nice innings of relief Saturday. Really like the value here with Toussaint today.
My Pick: Atlanta +131
Junis hasn't been good of late and Sabathia is the better hurler in this matchup, but given how volatile the Yankees are right now, it's hard to justify these prices. I don't see KC's offense getting more than 2 runs against Sabathia today, I predict a 5-2 Yankees win.
My Pick: Under 9
With the state of the pitching for the Pirates and the offense for the Giants, do not expect this to be an exiting game. I would lean Pittsburgh but the value bet is on UNDER 7.5
My Pick: Under 7.5
Both teams are coming into this game hot. They both swept their previous series and the Cubs have won five of the last seven games against Arizona and the last two in a row. Hendricks should be able to out duel Kelly in this matchup but at -160 I think there are better bets on the board
It's hard to bet against Bumgarner but the Giants offense has been horrible this year batting .205 this season. Lyles has looked good and comes into this game rested and has the better offense behind him.
My Pick: Pittsburgh -108
Chicago being favored makes sense with Hendricks on the mound and the Cubs are at home and have had an extra day to rest. However, Hendricks has been one of the least impressive parts of Chicagos rotation so far this season, Kelly hasnt been a showstopper, hes pitched decent out of the gate and Arizona keeps finding ways to hang around as well as win baseball games after sweeping a very good Atlanta team to start the week. If forced to play this one I would take Arizona and the plus money just because of the favorable odds.
My Pick: Arizona +152