Picks Saturday Aug, 17, 2019
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08/16/2019   -   LOST $10

Under9
 
Padres 4
Phillies 8
Under9
 
Brewers 1
WSH 2
Money Risked represents $100 wagers. No actual money is being bet here.
  • @JonWilks • 1d

    THis seems like a great under spot to me. Paddack has been on fire this year and while he's on a pitch count (basically has been all year) he can pitch through 6 innings. I really like Velasquez for DFS reason because this padre team strikes out a ton and has a lot of right handed batters which is Vince's specialty striking out righties. Both these teams have been very uninspiring offensively and I just don't think these guys are getting to double digit runs tonight.

    My Pick: Under 9
    • Comment
    • 53
  • @JonWilks • 1d

    Verlander has been great but he's always subject to homeruns. If you haven't heard it yet, google his take on the balls being juiced this year. Roark isn't my favorite pitcher and i didn't like him with the reds and while he see's a HUGE ballpark upgrade, I still think he gets rocked. I like the over in this game because I don't believe in Roark and Verlander is just prone to give up at least 2 but can still give up more. I'm not going crazy here but I'm still going to throw a unit on it

    My Pick: Over 9
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    • 73
  • @JonWilks • 1d

    I love when the brewers face a southpaw and I feel their reputations as a team that "crushes" overshawdows the reality. They have some amazing left handed batters in Yelich, moustakus, grandal, and thames but these guys can't hit lefties yet alone good ones. Well Yelich can, but Moose's numbers are significantly worse and Thames won't even be in the LU against a pitcher like Corbin. Houser has looked okay and he's really coming around. He has SIERA of 3.82 this year with a strike out rate of 26% and a groundball rate of 55%. So this guy can get out of jams a lot of differnt ways and I think that bodes well for him. I like the under in this one because I like both these pitchers and I like u 4.5 for the F5

    My Pick: Under 9
    • Comment
    • 36
  • @JonWilks • 2d

    Spencer Turnbull has been on of the few bright spots on the Tiger team and he actually had himself one hell of a rookie year. He got injured not to long ago and is now making his third start since being on the IR so I think all his pitch count limitations will be lifted. I like the tigers here as well as the under because these are two unispiring offesnses and Matt Wisler looked okay with Braves but I haven't seen him this year. But good news is he's facing the tigers so this is basically another triple A rehab start for him which should bode well.

    My Pick: Detroit -105 & Under 9
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    • 75
  • @JonWilks • 2d

    This game does line up as a under but I've been burned by recency biased too many time. Darvis and Smyly have both been recently pitching really well so natrually you think they will continue. But I can not buy into Drew Smyly and I think he just had a hot streak that I expect to end. Meanwhile Darvish has looked fantastical his last five starts but he's working his pitch count up really high really fast and can't seem to go past 6 innings depending on the team. I love the cubs to win because I think Darvish is a lot better than Smyly and I give the edge to the bats of the phillies. But I think some runs are scored in this one and i'll go over in hopes that Smyly gives up 8 himself because he's more than capable of that.

    My Pick: Chicago -147 & Over 9.5
    • Comment
    • 88
  • @JonWilks • 3d

    I love the under in this spot because both these pitchers are heavy groundball pitchers. Keuchel has a 58% rate on the season and Matz has a 47% rate. Neither pitcher a big strike out pitcher but they are very stingy and generate a ton of double plays. I just like the pitchers in this one and while taking a team like the braves against a south paw can feel gross with the under, I think it's the right play

    My Pick: Under 10
    • Comment
    • 126
  • @JonWilks • 3d

    Freeland has been a dumpster fire this year. What the hell happened to this guy? He was fourth last year in Cy Young voting and his odds are so bad right he's been off the cy young board for months. At this point of the season I think it's fair the he was smoke and mirrors last year. Ray is the same guy he's always been with 30% strike out rate but can be wild at time. But it's really encouraging to see that Ray hasn't been walking a lot of batters. He did have three his last start but didn't walk a single guy the two games before that and only one guy in the two games before that. He's pitched in coors twice and did okay both times so I like the Dbacks in this spot and it's no surprise to see the line move

    My Pick: Arizona -147
    • Comment
    • 118
  • @JonWilks • 3d

    Get out of here with this total in SF. Bailey gets picked on for being a gas can but he's really not that horrible. I mean he keeps finding gigs in the MLB and I don't think this SF team gets hot today. I don't have faith in Beede but the recent form of the A's is enough for me at this point to take the under. This park is huge and these teams won't string together multiple hits and I see this game scoring 5ish today. I love this under for some reason

    My Pick: Under 9
    • Comment
    • 108
  • @JonWilks • 4d

    Kershaw got scratched and that's why the line is only -200. If kershaw was pitching and this was the line you better bet the house. But May is pitching and I like this guy. I really like his hair so maybe i'm biased. But I'm not a believer in Yamamoto and feel we are catching him during his regression. He's giving up 4, 4, 6, and 5 his last four starts. This dodgers team is potent and this is not a good time to be slumping even if you are pitching in Miami

    My Pick: Los Angeles -200
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    • 119
  • @JonWilks • 4d

    this pick is going to sting, but I like the under in this spot. Toronto has been crushing but I really like Lynn to contain them today. On the other side I really don't like this texas team and they have been struggling to get things going offensivly. So while i"m not the biggest fan of Pannone I don't believe in this texas team so that's why I like the under

    My Pick: Under 9.5
    • Comment
    • 117
  • @JonWilks • 5d

    The Indians don't hit nearly as well against south paws as they do righties. It makes sense because if a righties has bad splits against lefties the indians have the roster to throw up to 7 in the lineup. But that's not going to help them tonight because Rodriguez shuts lefties down. Plesac is nothing fancy and while he doesn't do anything flashy, he has a high ground ball rate and manages to get out of a lot of dangerous situations. I like this under a lot here today

    My Pick: Under 10.5
    • Comment
    • 125
  • @JonWilks • 5d

    Lucceshesi isn't that great and I've watched him enough to know what he is. He had a lot of hype this year and was going to be one of the new wave of pitchers to hit the league and he has heavily disappointed. I like this Rays team and while Castillo isn't the greatest in his own right, I like one of these teams to get it going tonight and I'm on the over myself.

    My Pick: Over 8
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    • 78
  • @JonWilks • 5d

    I just don't believe in Erick Fedde and I really like DeSclafani when he faces a team that doens't have a ton of potent left handed bats int he LU. His splits are so damn extreme so when I see he has a team that will most likely throw three weak lefties against him I'm all for the reds. Don't look now but they are making a move and I like this rotation. Bauer, Gray, Casitllo is a legit rotation and I like DeScafani here as well and the line has already moved 20 cents. I think that says saomething

    My Pick: Cincinnati -115
    • Comment
    • 84
  • @JonWilks • 6d

    I like Marquez and he seems to just crush SD on the road. Lamet has a ton of talant but is still on a pitch count so we can expect him to only throw 70-80 pitches today. Nevertheless, 4.5 F5 is too high and I really like the under. The rockies just don't seem to get it done on the road and Lamet is a strike out machine.

    My Pick: Under 8.5
    • Comment
    • 88
  • @JonWilks • 6d

    I"m not sure why this total is so high. I really like Berrios has been great and I'm not all that in love with the indains here. I know that the twins have a lot of power in their LU but the Civale has looked great in his first two starts. Sure it was detriot where he went 6 scoreless then texas in cleveland where he threw 6 and gave up 1. Sure it's possible this is hte game that the league catches up to Civale but I like the under

    My Pick: Under 9.5
    • Comment
    • 106
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