Picks Monday Jun, 24, 2019
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06/23/2019   -   WON $255

MIA +155
 
Miami 6
Phillies 4
Under11.5
 
Chicago 4
Texas 7
Money Risked represents $100 wagers. No actual money is being bet here.
  • Yamamoto has collected two big league wins before allowing a run. The 23-year-old has started his Marlins career by setting a franchise record with 14 straight scoreless innings. He has given up five total hits in two wins over the Cardinals. I think Miami and the plus money is worth the risk today, even if it is more of a fade of Santos.

    My Pick: Miami +155 70%
    • Comment
    • 75
  • The UNDER has cashed in 4 of Chicagos last 5, 4 of the White Sox last 5 versus a right-hander and 6 of Novas last 7 starts on the road for the Chisox. Sampson has not been good of late but he's one of those guys that I think is better than their ERA. I like Chicago White Sox win, but the best play is UNDER 11.5.

    My Pick: Under 11.5 70%
    • Comment
    • 68
  • Bailey was on top of his game when the Royals beat the Tigers 7-3 in Omaha on Thursday. Bailey gave up just two singles through six shutout innings. He walked three and struck out six. Kikuchi is in a slump, having recorded a 10.20 ERA in his last four outings. Prior to that, he enjoyed a four-start stretch in which he compiled a 1.66 ERA. This matchup depens on which Kikucki shows up but with us getting +120 on our money here, I'm leaning the plus money with KC on the road tonight.

    My Pick: Kansas City +120 70%
    • Comment
    • 106
  • ***UNDER 10.5*** Plesac had allowed two runs or fewer through his first three career starts, but coming off an 111-pitch outing against the Yankees, he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings with three homers yielded vs. the Reds. Sampson is going for Texas tonight and is carrying a 4.20 ERA and allowed six runs in five innings in his last start against the Red Sox, but prior to that game he had been pretty much nails. I like both starters today to go 6-7 innings and if they bring their A game this should be a lower than expected game. 10.5 runs just doesn't pass the eye test with me today, give me the Unders here.

    My Pick: Under 10.5 70%
    • Comment
    • 86
  • The big news here is the return of Clevinger to the mound after straining his upper back in his second start of the year on April 7. He was dominant through his first two outings, tossing 12 scoreless frames with 22 K's. In his last rehab start, his velocity touched 99 mph. So Clevinger is a little bit of a question market here today. Texas will be starting Lynn tonight who has a 3.39 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in his last nine starts. It is unknown if Clevinger is going to be on a pitch count for this game being it is his first start in two-plus months he believes he can get to 90 pitches but Lynns ability to battle and grind out results makes the Rangers +120 the pick as they open a seven-game homestand and are in the hunt for a Wildcard.

    My Pick: Texas +120 70%
    • Comment
    • 82
  • Yonny Chirinos has been very good as a starter this year and the Rays as a team have been strong on the road. Tanaka has struggled of late as he is 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA over his last three starts and the Rays have been a decent offensive team on the road as they have averaged 4.76 rpg away from home. Love the +125 odds here with the Rays with Chirinos on the hill.

    My Pick: Tampa Bay +125 70%
    • Comment
    • 123
  • Getting even money with Minor (2.52 ERA) and the 2nd best offense in MLB? Yes Please. Laying the lumber on Texas today!

    My Pick: Texas +100 70%
    • Comment
    • 128
  • There are three reasons why San Francisco is the pick here, #1 Milwaukee starter Jimmy Nelson has only started one game (on June 5th) since 2017 and his rust showed. He was chased in three innings by Miami, a poor offense, after allowing four earned runs and three walks. Plus, his fastball lacked zip, registering 1.7 mph slower on average than 2017. #2 Madison Bumgarner is a potential trade chip and hes been busy showing what hes worth. In eight starts since May 1st, hes gone 6-plus innings in every start while walking just 12 batters (2.2 per nine innings). #3 San Fran fans have no one left to cheer for except the Giants; expect a legitimate home-field advantage for the Giants on Saturday.

    My Pick: San Francisco -105 70%
    • Comment
    • 110
  • It's hard to bet against David Price but Sampson has been nails in his last 2 starts, giving up only 1 earned in 9 innings against Oakland in his last start. Boston may have the slight edge here but getting 2X on your money, you've got to take Texas here as the value bet.

    My Pick: Texas +195 70%
    • Comment
    • 99
  • I had to double check to make sure these odds were correct today. Atlanta is +143 at home with Soroka facing Keller? Give me Soroka and the better offense at home today.

    My Pick: Atlanta +143 70%
    • Comment
    • 116
  • Texas enters this matchup as the hotter team as the Rangers are now five games above .500 and have won 7 out of their last 10 games. The Rangers offense has moved up to 2nd in the big leagues in runs per game. Texas is averaging a remarkable 5.6 runs in their last ten games and they are up against a struggling Rick Porcello in this one. The right-hander has conceded nine runs in his last two starts spanning 10.2 innings. Rangers starter Lance Lynn has been more consistent than Rick Porcello, and it's a bit of a head scratcher as to why Vegas has Boston as a -140 favorite here. Feels like a great spot to take Texas and the +130 money.

    My Pick: Texas +130 70%
    • Comment
    • 181
  • I definitely dont see the Cubs losing four straight to the NL Central rival Cardinals, especially with Hamels on the hill. Hamels held the Cardinals to just one run (zero earned) in seven innings last weekend. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas is a completely different pitcher on the road where he struggles. He owns a terrible 7.66 ERA in his five road starts on the season.

    My Pick: Chicago -128 70%
    • Comment
    • 134
  • Shaun Anderson has actually been better (or just as good) as Wheeler over the past month. Giants offense has been slumping all season and Mets should be a slight favorite here but -170 just seems ridiculous in this spot. I'll put something small on the Giants +160 even if it is more of a value bet today.

    My Pick: San Francisco +160 70%
    • Comment
    • 105
  • I'll play the Phillies here. The Phillies need to get off the snide and this is a good opportunity to do so. Arrieta got beat up pretty good in his last start versus the Dodgers, but the Padres arent the Dodgers. Arrieta has been solid this year, not great, but he needs to make a good start here to get the Phillies back on track. The Phillies offense has been bad as of late but given the uncertainty of the Padres starter here, they should be able to break out.

    My Pick: Philadelphia -115 70%
    • Comment
    • 86
  • Fried has been arguably the best starter for the Braves this season and Atlanta should be able to lock up a victory here today, but at -155 odds it's either Atlanta on the RL or nothing at all.

    • Comment
    • 122
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