Picks Wednesday May, 22, 2019
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05/21/2019   -   LOST $110

Under8.5
 
Boston 3
Toronto 10
Money Risked represents $100 wagers. No actual money is being bet here.
  • @DavidYang • 1d

    Stroman has one of the best ground ball rates in the game and I think he's a great pitcher. Some people will look at his record and see he's 1-6 but the guy can't help that his team never gives him run support. The sox are coming into tonight hot but I think Stroman has seen them enough that he will limit damage. On the other side Rodriguez has looked great his last two starts and what did I say about stroman being 1-6? His team sucks and never scores so i like the under today. Rodriguez can be wild at time but I'm going to hope his recent form stays true because the only thing that I'm worried about is him beating himself. This total has already dropped a little but I still like the under a lot

    My Pick: Under 8.5 60%
    • Comment
    • 79
  • @DavidYang • 2d

    if this game was 5 years ago it would be two of the leagues top aces but we need to fast foward to current time and try to get away from the names. Davrish is having major issues this year and his walk rate reflects his control this year. He's walking 15% of his batters! How are the cubs favorites and if you spotted this earlier you could have got +120 on the phillies. Arrieta hasn't been that great himself but the phillies have been batting well the last couple of games and I like riding the momentum of teams that have been hitting well and I think Darvish gets rocked tonight.

    My Pick: Philadelphia +111 60%
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    • 86
  • @DavidYang • 2d

    I think this total is to low considering Suarez is making his season debut as a starter. He hasn't looked great and I really like this Braves lineup. Suarez is a south paw that has along history of betting blown up by righties and currently is giving ups a .367 wOBA and .215 ISO to right handed hitters. The ball park is definatly a pitchers park but I like Acuna and Swanson leading off and Donaldson with his historical stats against pitchers like him. Soroka has been crushing this year but I think he's due for some regression and he's been getting lucky. In his last game he got out of three or four jams and if he keeps letting batters reach base it's just a matter of time until it catches up to him. This total opened at 7 and moved up half a run but I still think it has a good shot at going over and i'm going to take this for about half a unit today since there isn't that many games that are jumping off the page to me.

    My Pick: Over 7.5 60%
    • Comment
    • 69
  • @DavidYang • 3d

    Flaherty has been in fantastic form his last couple of starts and I really like this matchup. But I really like the fact that Drew Smyly is on the other side. He's a below average southpaw facing a team that mashes left handed pitchers. Smyly has a big control issues and is walking 14% of his batters and the Cards have 7 guys in the lineup that are considered high walk batters. Not only that, Smyly has been getting rocked and is giving up an ISO of .210 and this entire cards team has ISO of almost .225. Hop on these Cards

    My Pick: St. Louis -166 60%
    • Comment
    • 172
  • @DavidYang • 4d

    This game has slugfest written all over it. Sorry guys but I couldn't get to my computer in time and the total has moved up half a run since I wagered on it. That's because I'm sure a lot of sharps hit the over and i can see why. Giolito doesn't pitch very well and is proned to the long ball to high ISO hitters. Well the 2-5 spot on the jays all have ISO over .240 and so you know .200 is considered high. The biggest issue with Giolito though is the fact that he walks a lot of batters and has a walk rate of 11.4% and if his contrl is off, he gives out a lot of free passes. Feieabend is making his debut and this guy wasn't that great in the minors and this sox lineup has a lot of pop to it. I took over 9 but you can take over 9.5 if you want because this game has a great chance of blowing up

    My Pick: Over 9.5 60%
    • Comment
    • 123
  • @DavidYang • 5d

    This may be a little scary considering how these teams have been batting, but I trust pitching over batting every time. I'll start with Martin Perez who has been having a great season and has upped him velocity of 7 seasons (93 MPH) to 95 MPH. Doesn't really make sense how he's throwing harder but what's really impressive is the fact that he's been throwing a cutter which is a new pitch for him. Not only is he throwing it, he's throwing it 30% of the time and it has been working out great for him. It's really helped him keep his hard contact down . On the other side Marco Gonzales started the season off to a 5-0 start and was pure fire until his last two starts. But he's still rocking a 3 ERA and he also does a great job limiting hard contact. This is a high total for these pitchers and this ball park and I really like the Under tonight. Like I said, this pick feels gross because these are the same teams that have been putting up 15 runs on their own and they both have great lineups but I still think pitching is key and I really like these pitchers and think they both fly under the radar by the general public so i"m taking the under tonight

    My Pick: Under 9 60%
    • Comment
    • 119
  • @DavidYang • 5d

    Rich hill has only pitched 15 innings and has 18 strike otus this year. I like that he's actually a reverse splits pitcher and strikes out right handed bats (28.5%) more than he does left handed batters (19.9%). The Reds will fire off 7 right handed batters and Hill looks promising because he reached 96 pitches in his last game. He has a short leash and never goes deep but this dodger bullpen rates out better than the reds. Also, speaking of splits lets dive into DeSclafani's! Wow, this guy gets CRUSHED by left handed bats and that's where the dodgers best bats are. I really like this game and love the price so I'm on the dodgers today.

    My Pick: Los Angeles -125 60%
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    • 124
  • @DavidYang • 5d

    CC has been looking really good and I like how he's reinvented himself and went from a high heat strike out hitter to a soft contact control pitcher. Maybe Felix hernadez will get the memo that you need to zig when everyone zags because you can't just throw heaters when you've been in the league ten plus years. I was on this game this morning and took the Yankees -105. I like the under as well but I think the yankees will get line up well against Chirinos (Stanek will start but only pitch two innings).

    My Pick: New York -113 60%
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    • 116
  • @DavidYang • 7d

    I really like Mike Minor and feel he doesn't really get that much respect. Sure he's 3-3 but he's had some bad luck where his team hasn't giving him the best run support. His strike outs are up and he's doing a great job limiting hard contact and I really think Lopez is a gas can that will explode against a lineup like the Rangers. I'm blown away at this line and think the rangers really should be in the neighborhood of -170 so I'm on the rangers here. Lopez has a wOBA of .361 and ISO of .235 to left handed batters (his numbers aren't much better against righties) and this Ranger team is stacked with power left handed bats. I may even throw in a runline bet here since the Rangers are away get their 9th innnig at bat no matter what.

    My Pick: Texas -127 60%
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    • 118
  • @DavidYang • 7d

    Odorizzi has been crushing and I love this match up against the angels for him> He struggles with left handed bats and la stella has been playing great this year and it's unfortunate that Ohtani is back in the LU. But i'm not worried about boar and his high strike out rate and the bottom half the angels LU isn't that inspiring. On the other side, Cahill looks horrible and he is in trouble. Cahills issues come by power bats and the twins team ISO is .197 which is really high. I think we can expect some runs in this one and giving the recent for of Odarizzi I'll take the twins at the -140 all day

    My Pick: Minnesota -140 60%
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    • 110
  • @DavidYang • 2w

    I will be on the Phillies today because Eflin has been in great form heading into today's game. His last two games he's pitched 7 inning and 9 inning and gave up one earned run in both of those games. I don't consider Eflin elite but against weaker lineups (his last two starts were against the marlins and Nationals and this Royals team isn't far from those two) he has proven he can dominate. Brad Keller is the definition of "meh" because he's not horrible, but no one is going to go out of their way to roster him against the phillies. The Rays were able to smack Keller around in his last two starts as he gave up 5 earned in five innings and this phillies lineup is a lot better than the Royals. They actually improve because eflin doesn't have to bat

    My Pick: Philadelphia -130 60%
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    • 131
  • @DavidYang • 2w

    Soroka and Weaver have been in great form but I'm sensing regression coming both their ways tonight. Soroka is a 21 year old pitching on the road and I don't think he's going to be this elite and this braves lineup could be what does it. Can we really believe in Luke Weaver right now? He looked like and ace in his first year in teh majors then regressed heavily for the Cardinals before getting dealt to Arizona. Weaver has been allowing hard contac at a 46% clip with a fly ball lean. I love this braves lineup and they have plenty of power in it which could lead to big trouble for weaver. I like the Braves and I think this goes over and I think today is when we see a Weaver blow up.

    My Pick: Atlanta -105 & Over 8.5 60%
    • Comment
    • 85
  • @DavidYang • 2w

    Skaggs has been pitching well and so has Skaggs. These two line up pretty evenly and this is one of those games where I feel Boyd is going to see some regression. You have to favor the LA bats any time you get trout facing a lefty and hopefully Ohtani is in the LU as well. But I'll take the Angels and expect them to lose a little from their price by the time this game starts

    My Pick: Los Angeles +110 60%
    • Comment
    • 176
  • @DavidYang • 2w

    Matt Strahm has looked good this year and that's why you cant just look at records. I typically fade the padres when they face a good right handed pitcher because their LU only has one and sometimes two lefties. But I don't think anyone is really that afraid of Wilmer Font making a spot start. This game opened around -135 and is now -145 so this pick is gaining some traction. I like the padres to win because Font struggles with high ISO hitters and is giving up .290 ISO to lefties and .220 to righties. Anything over .200 is consiedered high at the major league level and the Padres definatly have some power bats in their LU so I think they can get to him.

    My Pick: San Diego -140 60%
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    • 95
  • @DavidYang • 2w

    This is giong to be a battle of the pens today and I heard two differnt sharps came in on the Rays today. It makes sense considering how well the Rays have been playing and my models have this game at -190 so if you can get anything less take it

    My Pick: Tampa Bay -185 60%
    • Comment
    • 69
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