Picks Wednesday Jul, 17, 2019
2 Picks
$210 RISKED
MLB 7:05pm EST
BAL +165
 
WSH -185
Orioles +165
MLB 8:05pm EST
UNDER 10
 
Arizona +145
Texas -160
Money Risked represents $100 wagers. No actual money is being bet here.
  • @DavidYang • 21h

    Lance Lynn has changed up his mechanics and started throwing more sliders and the results speak for themselves. The thing to note with Lynn is he strikes out lefties at a 20% rate compared to 33% rate to righties and the Dbacks will send 5 lefties his way. But non of these guys have a great iso or wOBA and I don't see the Dbacks piling up runs on him. This lineup is less than inspiring and I think lynn will have a simular performance as his last start against the Dbacks where he struck out 9 and gave up one run in 6 innings. I also don't think there is enough of Alex young since he's a recent call up that he should be able to skate by as well. I'm on the under 10 for the game and I really like the under 5.5 for even money on the first five innings

    My Pick: Under 10 60%
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  • @DavidYang • 21h

    probably because it's in texas and Lynn is solid but gives up a few runs every start and I wouldn't be shocked if Young gets lit up. But with that said I feel a lot of these new up and coming pitchers manage to get by their first couple of starts unitl there is a better scouting report. I like the under as well

    My Pick: Under 10 60%
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  • @DavidYang • 21h

    Austin Voth hasn't lived up to his top prospect rank and his splits are out of control. The guy gets lit up by left handed batters and is giving up a .466 wOBA right now to lefties. He has to deal with 6 in the projected lineup for the O's so they definiatly got the scouting report. I'll take my chances and take Baltimore at +165 here and I really like the +1.5 at +115.

    My Pick: Baltimore +165 60%
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  • @DavidYang • 2w

    sorry, but seeing "Ace" next to the name "cashner" made me laugh. Still I agree with the pick and he has been better this year but he still sucks

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  • @DavidYang • 2w

    Snell couldn't find the strike zone in his last meeting with this yankee team and I'm going to consider that an outlier. He's much better on the road and don't forget this is the same guy who struck out 9 and 12 yankees in his previous meetings and only gave up 1 and 2 runs. I get that his recent form isn't that great but his overall number are right where he has been for a while and the regression has hit him which we kind of saw coming considering the start he had. Sabathia has always done a good job limiting damage against the Rays and I like the rays to win, as well as the under in this one

    My Pick: Tampa Bay -132 & Under 8.5 60%
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    • 86
  • @DavidYang • 2w

    WTF kind of a line is this?!?!?!?! I want to take the Royals here because this reminds me of the last time I saw a -400 team and that was the Yankees last year against these Royals. Homer Baily vs Loius Severino and guess what happened. THere has been a few -360 or more teams that have already lost this year so I don't see it happeneing again. Honestly, Sherzer should striaght up crush and his strike out prop is at 9.5 over juiced -150. The thing that makes me confident with this pick and pairing it with the Astros is the fact that Sparkman has been getting crushed and the nats are hot. This should be a sandwich maker (a term my friend came up with when a game is so out of hand there is no point in watching so you can go make a sandwich) and I just don't see a sweat even at these odds.

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  • @DavidYang • 2w

    DeSciafani has some of the most extreme splits as anyone when it comes to right/left handed batters. He shuts down right handed batters and gets rocked by lefties. His wOBA to righties is .267 compared to .409 to lefties and his ISO comparison is .146 to .273. The Indians have 7 left handed bats in the lineup today and this is not a good spot for DeSciafani. The beibs just got named to the allstar game and for good reason. He's rocking a strike out rate of 31% with a walk rate of just 5.5%. So his control is elite and I just have to side with the Tribe here. I really like the first five because I don't want the bullpen to make or break my bet and the odds are the same.

    My Pick: Cleveland -124 60%
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  • @DavidYang • 2w

    There was just a pitching change and carpenter is going to pitch for Soto. I didn't think there could be a worse pitcher than Soto but the Tigers reminded that not only is there a worse pitcher, but he pitches for them! Wow, good luck tigers

    My Pick: Boston -220 60%
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  • @DavidYang • 2w

    Musgrove has been pitching great latley and this pirates team has been rolling offensively. But Musgroves last two games he's only giving up one run. Hendricks has been away for about two weeks with an injury and is making his first start back since the 14th of last month. I don't think he will be in the best shape and this is a great chance to get on the pirates with the plus money. Musgrove does kind of struggle against lefties but there are only three in the projected lineup and if he can limit his damage to rizzo fowler and shwarber I think he will have another succesfful game

    My Pick: Pittsburgh +120 60%
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  • @DavidYang • 2w

    this is a tricky one because Ray has been ptiching great and has great historic numbers against the Giants. He gets to face them in the pitcher friendly candlestick and in his career he's never giving up more than three earned runs. Mad bum looked great against the rockies but he got rocked against the dodgers before that. Arizona does a pretty good job hitting southpaw and we need to be honest, Bum isn't the same guy he was even two years ago. I have to side with Ray here and I will actually take the F5 because I think Ray continues to dominate this weak giant team

    My Pick: Arizona -113 60%
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  • @DavidYang • 3w

    The weather is cold and there is a possiblity for isolated showers during this game. This is a pitchers park as it is and we have two teams that don't have that many left handed batters in the lineup and two pitchers that just dominate right handed batters. I don't see where the runs are going to come from and I love the under 8 for the full game and I think i'm going to double dip and take under 4 first five at even money. Paddack is a great pitcher and the Cards have a .140 ISO against righties and a .319 wOBA which is so low. Both pitcher have low walk rates and I just don't see runs being scored here guys, pound this under and expect a great pitchers duel

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  • @DavidYang • 3w

    Tanner Anderson has decent numbers in his first three starts this year, not he's not a top prospect and kind of sucked in triple A. He only had a strike out rate of 15% and this angles team is one of the lowest strike out teams in the league. Balls will be put in play and I really like the angels to score some runs tonight. His splits are way worse to lefties and this lines up well for La Stella, Ohtani, Calhoun and Rengifo. Then he has to deal with guys like Trout and Upton form the right side. Now Griffin Canning has been a promising pitcher who has look more than legit

    My Pick: Los Angeles -160 60%
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  • @DavidYang • 3w

    Snell is coming off his worst start and a start that burned me bad. I had under 5 in the first five and he gave up 6 in the first for the only runs through the first five innings. Snell is a different pitcher on the road and that's exactly the spot he's in today and he's facing a very good twins line up. On the other side gibson is coming off a bad game where he gave up 5 runs to the Red Sox through four innings. Snell actually gives up a high wOBA to left handed batters and the twins will have three coming his way. I think we see some bounce back games from both Gibson and Snell and I think i'm going to take the under here and if I'm being honest, I'm going to watch this game live and see if I can get a nice middle spot on the total and see if I can hopefully get the game at 6.5 to come back with the over

    My Pick: Under 9 60%
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    • 165
  • @DavidYang • 3w

    Taking a look at the splits between these pitchers they have very simular situations going for them tonight. Flaherty has been doing a great job this year but has struggled a little more to Left handed batters and the same can be said about Bassitt. But neither of these teams have a lot of lefties they can throw in the lineups so both guys have that going for them. Looking at game logs, Bassit has only giving up more than three runs once (against the Angels where he gave up 5) and Flaherty has been holding opposing teams to 4 or less all season himself. This being an interleague game heading to STL gives Flaherty a little edge because he gets to pitch at home and gets an automatic out with Bassit being forced to bat. The only thing that scares me is the fact that Bassit gives up an ISO of 211 to lefties compared to 125 to righties but this is a big park and the cards don't have that many lefties in this lineup. I'm going to ride the under and it already went donw half a run since the overnight line.

    My Pick: Under 8.5 60%
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    • 95
  • @DavidYang • 4w

    Sanchez can be really wild at times but so far this year he's been okay. But his advanced show some regression on the way and his SIERA is a 1.2 runs higher. This braves team is hot and Sanchez has some extreme splits to Lefties. The braves will most likely throw Freeman Markakis and McCann his way and I love that this braves team is a patient team in the batters box. They have 6 guys in the projected lineup that are considered high walk guys and that might go a long way considering Sanchez is walking roughly 10% of the batters he faces. Folty used to be a top prospect but he has really falling off and this nats line up fully healthy and has some pop in it as well. I love this over and it dropped to 10 but went back up to 10.5. I'll ride the over here because both teams have an high iso and have a lot of things going for the and these two pitchers are in bad form

    My Pick: Over 10.5 60%
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